Don't Panic! Thinking rationally about Corona Virus.

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I am a science guy. Especially when it comes to questions like how to stay healthy, I want to base my decisions on objective scientific research. In this time of epidemic this becomes more difficult. My education is in Physics, not biology... my understanding comes from other people. I am talking to my brother (who is an expert in public health) and others, and trying to take a rational rational approach. This is where I am at (in order of importance).

1. Stay at home! Every expert, every bit of research and every bit of logic says that social distancing is the most important thing. It is important for you. It is important for society at large.

2. Wash your hands! No argument here.

3. Don't touch your face I have seen a few people who know more than I say this is excessive, but the experts seem to most agree.

I don't think there is anyone who disagrees up to this point.

4. Wearing masks. Some experts say this is useful for people in general (outside of professionals in a health care setting). Other experts say this is useless (or even harmful). There are some specific studies for clinical settings. There is no solid scientific evidence that masks are at all useful for the general public.

5. Washing groceries. Again, there is no scientific evidence that this reduces your risk of getting the disease.

It seems to me that hand-washing and social distancing are the two scientifically proven ways to fight the virus. It also seems that as long as everyone does this, it will be enough. Even if the other things lower the risk a bit, they are insignificant compared to social distancing (like picking up pennies when you have hundreds of dollars).

Personally I have been staying at home, except for going out to exercise where I never get within 20 feet of another person. I have found the key to this is timing. I went for a hike on Saturday Morning to find the parking lot completely filled and cars spilling over to the street. I went back home without hiking. But when I went hiking on Monday morning, there was no one.

I don't wear a mask when I go shopping. But I do limit my shopping and go during off times. The last time I did my weekly shopping there were maybe 10 people in a large supermarket.

I do not wash groceries. It is the rage now, but I don't think there is any science behind it, nor can I imagine how this would be a realistic way to encounter the virus. No, the fact that "viable" virus can be detected on a surface in a laboratory setting means nothing to determining risk in a real world situation. Groceries sitting on a shelf in a supermarket seem like the least risky part of being in a supermarket.

How have you all been dealing with the the rather unclear messages we have been getting?

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This is from Johns Hopkins Medical School.

https://www.jhsph.edu/sebin/j/j/Heirarchy%20controls.JPG

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@maxdancona,

that graphic is what happens when you start thinking in Power Point. It should be in three dimensions and let the viewer relate the controls in their association with the others.

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@farmerman,

A study in Gangelt Germany seems to give us some cause for cautious optimism. The study , based upon 1000 individuals looked at test data from antigen AND antibody results. It appears that the population has "built in" about a 37% populational immunity. This, is only very early data but it means that a 37% immunity is a "BASELINE " number, Immunity could follow the "herd immunity" data from other SARs .(Dr John Campbell was explaining that we need to conduct more testing to flesh this out)>
US is, slowly catching up to China, and other countries (The highest testing rate is in China and Germany at 9% of targeted population)

Whats really important is that, besides the possibility of populational immunity growing and giving us time to develop a vaccine, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) that was modeled by Johns Hopkins may be too high.
Hopkins calculated a CFR of about 1.98%, while projecting, based on the Gangelt Germany data, that CFR may be lowered to 0.38%

A little bit of hopeful news.Still, I wish wed be doing more testing(antigen and antibody) rather than just arguing about it. Weve still done MORE individual testing than most other countries (except China and S Korea). Were about 6.3% but those last few %points are the tough ones because it accounts for huge numbers based on the size of our population.

The studies are availbale I just didnt transfer it over from John Campbells youtube updates.

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@farmerman,

Walter has gotten information and his advice was that other similar antigen/antibody studies are being run in other German states. However nothing invalidates the findings and results of the initial one.

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The entire country of Sweden is turning itself into a laboratory experiment. It is the one country in Europe that is not imposing social distancing standards.

I wouldn't want to be a Swede, but from a scientific standpoint we are going to get invaluable data from Sweden as a control group for social distancing measures.

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@maxdancona,

Maybe they think the "cold" will stymie the virus, just opposite occurs. Freezing and cold humid actually xtends it "Best if used by" date, rather far .

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https://img.dtnext.in/Articles/2020/Apr/202004020518218568_Disinfectant-tunnel-in-Tirupur-to-prevent-corona-virus_SECVPF.gif

My point of this thread is to discuss which measures to fight the virus actually make sense, and which are overreactions with little scientific value.

I have changed my mind a couple of times about face masks. Scrubbing down groceries never made sense to me. This tunnel to spray disinfectant on human beings seems ridiculous to me. There is no science saying that spraying chemicals on living human beings is a good idea. And, yet people do it (there is no way in Hell I walk through that tunnel of unknown chemicals.)

The problem is that no one really knows what will help, and the messaging we are getting from the people who should know is rather muddled.

3 Replies

@maxdancona,

you are trained as a physicist, Im a mining geochemist. Neither of us are virologists so our opinions are just that. Ive listend to several real experts about face masks and am concluding that any barrier, no matter how imperfect, is better than nothing. My wife has created a really neat set of masks that have double lined removablle filters. I wear mine whenevre I food shop. That, coupled with gloves, social distancing and immdiate washing of me and any produce and plastic wrappd stuff may turn out to be as effective as I can make it.
Staying in, is obviously, the only way to prevent any contact, but we have to at so either e buy food or have it delivered (I prefer seeing my order on the"hoof" rather than waiting to see what the stor has picked out for m and hoping nobody was messing with it.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

Quote:

The problem is that no one really knows what will help, and the messaging we are getting from the people who should know is rather muddled.

The only "Muddled stuff" is the information that is delivered with a heavy dos of political campaigning.

The only politician who is eschewing politics seems to be Cuomo. The gov of Georgia just opened the states beaches, is that smart? All the data and evidence in says HELL NO.

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@farmerman,

I have a personal source medical/public health information from my brother (PhD, professor, public health). He is pissed at the CDC right now because they are now pushing measured that are not evidence based.

You are correct that I have no expertise in this area. But...

Show me an expert who can point to any scientific research that masks have any positive impact outside of a controlled clinical setting? There are lot of microbiologists who are saying the benefit from wearing masks in public is minimal.

The important message is to stay at home.

1 Reply

I've heard that generally, the fabric and non medical face masks help protect others. Seems to me that if I wear one to help protect you, and you wear one to help protect me, it's a no brainer.

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@maxdancona,

Quote:

there is no way in Hell that I walk through that tunnel of unknown chemicals.

You possibly wander around under mistings of these chemicals every day. You and the rest of the world are beneath a perpetual raining of chemicals...many which are quite toxic.

Further, if the governmental muckymucks decide we all must be dusted/misted/sprayed down, they can easily do it without anybody's consent. They kind of do this already when doing aerial spraying (at least here in NYC) to combat West Nile.

My basic on the ideas of protection are to go with most of it. Even masks. Even if there is only minimal protection, it's worth it. How would you be feeling if a loved one of yours was hit with Covid-19 and either died or became permanently damaged in some way and all because you told them a mask was not necessary or particularly useful?

1 Reply

@Sturgis,

There is solid scientific reasoning, backed by research and field testing, behind spraying for mosquitoes. That makes all the difference to me.

The point is that if we are going to do these things, it should be backed by solid science. I am objecting to emotional or political overreactions.

There is a difference.

1 Reply

@Joeblow,

Quote:

it's a no brainer.

There is nothing more frightening than a "no brainer". I reject them out of principle.

I believe that we should be using our brains.

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@maxdancona,

Lol. Didn't mean to frighten you Max.

I couldn't get one for love nor money until today. I'll don it next shopping trip.

I'm wearing gloves, wiping the groceries, and I have a washable coat.

My nephew is an ICU RT. I've been paying attention.

I shop once a week. I'd do it less often but I'm responsible for my elderly parents and my older neighbours, too.

1 Reply

@Joeblow,

I have self-isolated. I have been working from home, and avoiding any social contact with people outside of my immediate family (my daughter lives with me half time). I have attended a couple of virtual birthday parties on Zoom and even had a couple of video dates.

When I go grocery shopping. I don't wear a mask. I don't wear gloves. I don't wipe the groceries. I do wash my hands when I get home.

I suppose we all have to find our own happy medium.

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@maxdancona,

read the published information from Korea's xperience. They seem to fel positively about the assistance that masks provide. Im wearing one when I go shopping . Im certainly not gonna knowingly make a bet on my life. Noone argues with isolation as THE principal tep

I have several physician buds an my best fishin buddy is a director of pharma research is a Phd pharmacologist,one of the docs is director of mergency med at a large regional hospital. He wears a Surgical style mask with an inner filter when he goes out of doors, where my wife took the idea and she feels improved it. Lets say e are equally informed .

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@maxdancona,

Ya know , SOMETIMES "Solid science" must benefit from" pure untested"experience".

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@farmerman,

Quote:

read the published information from Korea's xperience. They seem to fel positively about the assistance that masks provide.

I am sure you know that this isn't scientific.

1 Reply

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