Don't Panic! Thinking rationally about Corona Virus.

Bill Maher often says what I am thinking in a far more persuasive way...

0 Replies

@maxdancona,

Quote:

I still think the science is flimsy.

The science has been quite clar that a mask helps prevent you from becoming an INFECTION AGENT, it never said it would protect you efficiently.

As I saw on the tee shirts

Im qearing a face mask to protect you.
Wont you ar one to protect me?

I think thats a greater spirit that we try to present as caring humans.

Glad youre wearing a mask. Others thank your consideration.

2 Replies

@farmerman,

Actually, the Spanish flue, in its first wave was affecting pretty much the older population and they werent dying in as great a number as corona covid-19. When it mutated and came back in its second wave that mostly attacked the young and very young, it was a disaster.60million dead worldwide. We lost a generation o two.
I think the etiology of covid-19 is implicitly saying that, e really dont want to ay anything about a second wave .I think we should have that information in our bag of knowledge.
e are now setting ourselves up for a possible second wave. We should work on prophylaxes and a vaccine , but lets not let out guard down because some newspapers go for the sensational,or TV news anchors and a comedian want to score some debate points?
Caution can only be assessed in retrospect, never in prospect.
We fucked it up qhen the Spanish flu was going around the worlds because the infections werent frightening at first nd the infection rate wasnt nearly as fast as covid-19

2 Replies

@farmerman,

People need to recall how in 1918 San Francisco blew it big time.
After wave one was over, they gathered together in celebration. Soon after, the deadly flu was back.

Actually, San Francisco 1918 is a prime example of what not to do, in oh so many ways.

0 Replies

@farmerman,

I still don't believe the science is very clear at all. I don't see any credible scientist say anything stronger than that it "might" have some effect.

This seems like a cargo cult (although a harmless one).

1 Reply

@farmerman,

Do either of you accept that there is any need for balance? Caution comes with a cost. I can wear a mask (that doesn't cost very much).

You should at least accept the very real cost cost that people are paying for "caution". At some point there will be an understandable backlash from peoples whose livelihoods are being destroyed, families separated and live upturned.

I spoke to my mother yesterday. She lives in an assisted living facility. She has her own apartment and generally has an independent life and active social life. She had a small group of friends who lived in the same facility with whom she would play cards regularly. Four little old ladies playing cards.

Well... they put an end to the card game. Why? Is there any risk for four little old ladies all isolated to play cards together. I don't think there is very much... if you are isolated together you aren't going to catch or spread virus and these ladies are literally trapped in a building together.

This is causing a lot of stress for my mother, and even depression. She is getting everything she needs left outside her door, but she feel alone and isolated. For people in their mid eighties, this can be traumatic.

Would a small amount of managed risk, to let 4 little old ladies play cards, be worth the social isolation and depression that they would be spared?

I will argue that the extremes often make things worse.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

Of course there needs to be balance. Also necessary is visual vigilance. Keeping an eye on what is happening so a resurgence can be (hopefully) nipped in the bud.

1 Reply

@Sturgis,

Then we agree. I strongly support vigilance. I don't know what you mean by "visual vigilance"... I think Farmerman is 100% correct about the need for testing. This is the part that is in the field of science.

I will follow the official guidelines, because this is the best way to have a unified response.

As soon as they say I can travel, we are on the next flight possible.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

Visual vigilance involves watching the going ons around you. Do they appear ill? Are they a little too near each other? Maskless?

2 Replies

@Sturgis,

Sturgis wrote:

Visual vigilance involves watching the going ons around you. Do they appear ill? Are they a little too near each other? Maskless?

I get where you are coming from.... but I don't like this sentiment at all.

0 Replies

@Sturgis,

If we have readily accessible testing available... then we don't need to suspect and judge our neighbors.

0 Replies

@maxdancona,

Quote:

I still don't believe the science is very clear at all. I don't see any credible scientist say anything stronger than that it "might" have some effect.

You dont "believe" is a decision based on your emotions. Youve been very clear from the start that you felt the science wasnt what you expected. I respond with a question about who do you determine to be "reputable scientists" ?

When I felt the information that comes from objective epidemiologists , peer review reports, I felt weve gotten a close to the real facts as possible. We have to remove the politicizing (Dems have an agenda based on the"small people" and GOP agenda is based on Trump tweets). The issue on face masks could not have been clearer since day 1.THEY protect others from YOU quite well. I think youve been confusing the issue by assigning face masks as a way to PROTECT you. Today I see about 80% of people wearing masks and the "please wear a mask to protect me" tee shirts. The rest of the planet (xcept Italy, Spain, Brazil, Florida and and Mississippi have gotten that point
I
I think we must move on and try not to fall into a "fake opinion malaise" and possibly miss a second, more deadly wave of infection. Please read the history of the 1918to 1920 "Spanish flu" infection waves. Isolation began showing results and, then, everyboy took off their parachutes , and only after that dumass move did the world lose 50 to 100 MILLION people, mostly under 40 (even though the initial Jan-June 1918 infestation affected the elderly more). Mutation of rekettsial and viral diseases show that natural selection and mutation ork hand in hand.

Im feeling that we have a better than even chance to have a second wave (based on a fact that now we dont have a clear knowledge and quantitation of our "herd immunity" and we wont until we have really good Antibody/antigen testing aand th GOP seems to deny the need for such testing although the Trump tweets say they are "coming".
So, we, as a family, are going into full epidemiology mode, e dont know which way itll go but its better "to have it and not need it than need it and not have it"

Weve already contracted in July for a country butcher to take one of our beef and do a halfsey split between us on one of our finished Herefords and two lambs (we will not butcher the Dexters-those are family and breed stock for "Hobby farm cattle". My gardens this year will be allowing us to freeze veggies and sauces . I knw how much we need
As I think we should be sensitized to the several lessons of pandemic history we were given in the last 100 years as medicine and epidemiology grew as a special medical craft.

1 Reply

@farmerman,

Bullshit Farmerman. You are making stuff up. In science... when you make a claim you have to provide evidence. You are making the claim, you have to provide the sources.

If you are not full of crap, show me a single epidemiologist stating that public mask wearing has a clear scientific positive effect! Forget reputable! Show me a single epidemiologist with a steady job who says this.

You are stating as if it is fact you have not provided any scientific evidence to back it up the claim that public mask wearing makes any measurable difference.

This is from an epidemiologist writing for The Guardian. There are many articles by real epidemiologists saying the same thing. There is no conclusive evidence.

Quote:

There is a lack of good, robust evidence on the effectiveness of standard face masks worn by the public. One of the best forms of evidence in medical research is a randomised controlled trial. Typically, these are “blinded”, where information that may influence participants is withheld until after the experiment is completed. We would have difficulty doing this kind of trial of face masks, because it’s impossible for participants to be unaware of whether or not they’re wearing a mask.

We don’t even have good, case-controlled studies about how effective face masks are at preventing the spread of influenza, which is the model for respiratory virus diseases. There have been some studies comparing a group of people who got flu with a group of people who didn’t get flu , which asked retrospectively whether they wore face masks, but they don’t convincingly tell us that it was the face mask, rather than something else, that was effective in preventing transmission of flu.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/face-masks-coronavirus-scientists-evidence-covid-19-public

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

There is an argument that wearing face masks is a good thing to do even without conclusive scientific evidence. We are in a crisis and trying everything that might help is reasonable.

There is no scientific research showing that public wearing of masks will have any measurable impact on how fast this virus spreads.

1 Reply

@maxdancona,

Quote:

Americans should wear face masks as a way to help stifle the spread of COVID-19, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the nation’s top doctors leading the public health fight against the coronavirus pandemic — a departure from previous government guidance to only wear a mask if you were caring for someone with the illness or had it yourself.

“If everybody does that, we’re each protecting each other,” Fauci said in an interview with PBS NewsHour anchor and managing editor Judy Woodruff. His comments came shortly before President Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force shared national recommendations for people to wear non-medical face masks. The task force did not recommend the use of surgical or medical grade face masks, which are in short supply for hospitals and front line health care workers.

For months, federal health officials discouraged the use of surgical face masks. In recent weeks, some health experts began to question that decision, suggesting that the use of face coverings could have helped slow the spread of the virus sooner. But on Friday, the task force said it was now recommending face coverings “in light of recent studies.” Trump added that this recommendation does not eliminate the need for social distancing.

Perhap he will want to hear your TED TALK about why face masks dont work. Science doesnt stand still . HDC was "Todays magic bullet" till it no longer was.
At last some lined masks are FF1 style and our local suprmarkets are handing them out at the door . (pwopl are kept at markd distances so they understand that its "6 feet from all sides of you"

I read your newest post. I must say that You are the only guy I know who can have a loud argument with himself and never reach a decision.
I can entertain conflicting opinions until I become convinced by those that really know the subject and hear the most convincing arguments.
Ive been impressed by the Koreans and their lead epidemiologist and his team. He was amused at the argument of th USA to not wear masks but try to maintain 6ft isolation distance which is a minimum "Suggested distance". In other words the more the better. A mask is like adding a few feet by filtering an amount of expectorant droplets or aerosols. As he said, its"like shooting arrows randomly in a thick forest" .

As I said before, "Science can often learn from common sense experience" It doesnt really take a lot of high priced research. Take a can of blue spray lacquer and spray it or a second at a 6' distance piece of poster board. Then do the same with a series of masks and repat and repeat. . Place a blue electronic retcle of fixed diameter and count the droplets under a counting microscope and count the droplts that make it through with or without masks.

This would be a great science fair project that kids could do . Apply the statistics and using a reticle counter on the puter.

Thats fo you to do. Either way it turns out, its science on parade

1 Reply

@farmerman,

You are sounding an awful lot like LivingLava now.

You are posting a lot of words without any reference to scientific research.

0 Replies

Don't Panic! Thinking rationally about Corona Virus.

Quick Links

My Account

able2know