Don't Panic! Thinking rationally about Corona Virus.

There are separate issues here.

1) We don't have a real way to measure the effectiveness of the mask or the risk of contracting the virus without the mask. Are people who wear masks when they go outside significantly less likely to contract the virus? I don't believe so (nor do I see any objective evidence that this is the case).


2) We don't have a good way to decide on a rational response to risk.

Last year (before the pandemic), you knew that hugging your grandchildren presented an increased risk to both you and to them. Most people found that this was an acceptable risk and hugged their grandchildren anyway.

Next year (hopefully), people will again feel that the risk of hugging their grandchildren is again acceptable. (I would hate to live in a world where people are always afraid to hug their grandchildren).

Saying we won't accept any risk feels good in a crisis. But life is risk.

I am willing to follow the guidelines for social distancing while the crisis is going on. For the time being, I am not giving hugs to anyone I am not living with. But there is a rational balance between sensible precautions and overreaction.

I don't have a problem with anyone wearing a mask, especially if it helps their mental health. There may even be a health benefit. I don't know.

I am not going to be wearing one.

feel better?

Yes it was, it was reportd as a note from the experience of the Korean team that was in charge of dealing with covid-19.

When you swt yourself up as the arbiter of what is, or is not "scientific" I think your had has swollen a bit.

Also, this is not an "either or" thing. Its not about
"Staying inside and isolate" or
"wear a face mask".

ITS BOTH. There is no fairness or Marquis of Queensbury rules in a war.
OK so you dont wanna wear a mask until you see evidence. How do we see evidence?? maybe from experience perhaps?

Be well


Also

1) Do you have a link to the Korean report you are talking about?

2) I don't really get your point about "either or". They are independent decisions. You can do both, or neither, or one or the other. There are four permutations. The question is how each person reads the evidence and judges the risk.

OY max, max follow the bouncing ball. YOU were the one who first claimed that you were not gonna wear a face mask, THEN you finished your ntire thought with '"Im gonna remain isolated". When I read the way you wrote it, I got the impression that it was a negative comparison. Thats where the " its not an either /or condition".. came from

Sorry... I thought it was clear that I am advocating for a rational middle ground.

I am staying at home and not meeting with anyone outside my immediate family. That is what I mean by social isolation. I do go out for exercise daily. I avoid busy places and stay 6 feet from people. Occasionally I go to the grocery store. I take reasonable steps to stay away from people.

But I don't wear a face mask, and I don't wipe groceries down with bleach. It is a happy medium.

At some point in the fairly near future we are going to be told to "get out and spend money". Our economy, especially service workers and small businesses, will depend on it. The virus will still be around. We are going to have to simply get over this "no risk is acceptable" attitude or things will go to ****.

Ill be 70 end of the next year and I suppose I should just accept "being put out on an iceberg and allowed to float away"

And youre the one who espouses the "scientific uber alles " eh?

I can see why your a HS teacher rather than someone in research or applied engineering, we have to solve problems , not teach the lessons weve learned from them.Anybody can make the right choice of Sundays games on Monday morning.

I am working in engineering now.... but thanks anyway.I don't think your hatred of teachers is at all warranted.

At some point people your age will get over their fears and hug their grandchildren again. If you are planning to live an isolated life for the rest of your time on Earth, I can't stop you.


It seems sad though.

Boy you do have a reading comprehension problem. Where do you get anything that reads "HATRED"?? Im talking to you. I will judge each teacher on their own abilities to convince someone of their views. and skills.

Youre free to return to your worldview based discussion.
stay well

I guess this has to be my last post here befor I start screaming at max;s bonehead , selfish habits.
1Assume we all have been infected(just assume )
2Some will be subclinical others will become ill.
3Subclinical and early symptomatic folks will shed virus
4 a well constructed cotton mask WILL aid in preventing you from affecting others by spitting droplets and some aerosols if you get within the 2 meter "minimal safety zone"
5 To ignore this fact and refuse to wear a mask in public(dspite what most informed specialists say) sends a message of your disdain for your brother and sister humans

I was just listening to Saanjay Gupta, medical spokesman on several networks, he has made a well crafted statement that(I paraphrase) "I wear a homemade mask when in public. I am showing others that I care enough so I wont shed any virus your way . Then as we maintain our distances and everyone is masked, we are a little safer, This really isnt a matter for debate"

Really.... we are going from irrational, to angry mob here? You are not even making sense

1) If we "assume we have all been infected" then there is no reason for me to wear a mask, is there.

2) A "medical spokesman on several networks" ... really? Who knows what he actally believes, he isn't making scientific statement. He is serving his viewers who obviously want to hear how to make masks out of old t-shirts whether they are medically useful or not.

3) If this isn't a matter for debate then why are we debating this? Let's just yell childish names at each other.

What hand wringing. Who's suggesting this will last forever?

People your age? Tell me that's just hyperbole and not revolting condescension like it reads.

At this time, if you had any, would you hug your grandchildren if they didn't live with you?

And who's washing every individual grape with bleach? Is that what you think? I wipe plastic and cartons. Veggies are scrubbed under water and left to dry before being refrigerated. Before this all happened, I may have simply plunked them in the fridge and washed before use.

These are small measures. It takes an extra few minutes. Why does that seem like over the top to you? You wash your hands. Why might that be?

1. I practice social distancing and hand washing because the experts say unequivocally that these two measures have a dramatic impact on reducing the spread of the disease.

2. I don't wear a mask or wipe down groceries there is no scientific evidence of significant benefit to these new rituals. What seems to be happening is that public opinion is driving what experts say on TV. No one claims a real definitive scientific reason for doing them.

Your new rituals concerning groceries may reduce your chance of getting the virus by some minuscule amount... I don't know. It seems unlikely. It doesn't hurt me at all that you do so.

- I don't like the public shaming for things not supported by science, particularly with face masks.

- Some of these rituals are not only scientifically bogus, but they are harmful. There are disinfectant tunnels in Turkey that are all the rage (I am not sure if you seen the facebook posts), people walk through a human car wash device to have their clothes, hair and exposed skin sprayed with chemicals.

- The is going to be when it is time to lift the lockdown. If people aren't able to think in a rational and balanced way they are going to have problems. At some point in the next several months we are going to need people to get out of their house and start spending money even though the virus is still out there. At some point Americans are going to have to accept some amount of risk of corona virus.

Are you going to be able to make that mental switch?

looks like plasma antibody transfer studies that have been going on in China are being begun in the US at Einstein UHospital. We overthink so much that weve forgotten that plasma transfer has been an effective tool in viral epidemics. It sorta went away when the Aids era hit.
You search for antibodies in those who are immune or have recovered, you centrifuge out the blood cells and your let with the possible anti-viral.

75 years ago this is where medicine would have begun (partly because we didnt know as much about blood as we do today. Theyve begun clinical and "compassionate use" studies lat week and I guess itll take a few weeks or a month to get some fit indications.

Ok fair enough. You wash your hands because experts tell you it is a measure that works. But if I might, why do they want you to do that? Is it because you might touch something that has the virus on it and inadvertently transfer it to your hands, and then your eyes, nose or mouth?

Anyway. Guess that's my two cents.

The problem is that people are making unscientific guesses based on their own interpretations. We have people gargling all sorts of concoctions because they read (correct) that the virus attaches to the mucous membranes. so washing the mucous membrane make perfect sense in a way. We have people spraying themselves with disinfectant. We all read about the couple who ingested fish tank cleaner.

Other than what the science is clear about (social distance for example) I suppose that we all have to figure out what makes sense to us.

When it is time for us to go back out again... I think it is going to be difficult.

Seems like "science" has spoken up.(for those of us who need a seal of approval before we undertake something new) BBC, this morning heard from th Oxford primary Health care director(Sorry, didnt catch any names it was PBS) A double set of infection modelling as conducted at Washington State an Calgary U. The model asked the question whether the wearing of face masks would have any effect. Answer, yes. If 80% of people wore "lined face masks" (not N 98 or higher) the curve of infection would flatten and decline . Obviously it hs to do with being out and about when e come in contact with people. It isnt that it protects th wearer from infection, It prevents the wearer from INFECTING.

II think that was almost intuitive from the get go. Its what Korea learned early in th game

I have an audio version of Quammens book "Spillover" and recalled the age of zoonotic infections(Those that jump from animals to humans) weve entered by ';developmnt and a burgeoning world population". His book was finihed bfore all this but it should be giving epidemiology as much a boot as the arsnic and wood alcohol poisonings had helpe kik off "forensic medicine" .Except now, itd help save lives of a much larger population.

Nathan Wilson had an idea that theyre slowly implementing in third worl countries where "bush meat" is consumed as either a delicacy or a staple. Hes provided these test kits where the bush met hunters take a few drops of their animals blood and store them in bottles that are postpaid to a nearby lab that can do PCR and generate the DNA sequences of the animals chromosomes. That way his idea is that we can possibly determine the "next big one" years or even decades in advance.
Quammen recounts some tales where a disease like HIV was able to be tracked from its origin (determined to have occurred about 1910-1915), or Swine flu hich was traced to a single wet market in Myanmar where a butcher (who later died from it) was butchering a wild sow and cut his gloveless hand nd the blood of the sick sow got into hi cut hand and went through his system and he was infected by not washing his hands when he ate food after taking a dump. It got into his mouth and wound up in his lungs and he began the sprad.

What do you think is happening in Sweeden? They have not shut down the economy. Their death rate is higher than the countries around them... but not rising exponentially. Their curve has the same general shape as any other countries (initial rapid growth that plateaus).

My brother has a rather ominous explanation for this.

If it matters, I am wearing a face covering now when I shop. I still think the science is flimsy. But my reasoning that when there is a clear public health directive I should follow it.

There is a collective benefit to having a centralized public health authority that people respect. So, based on my state and CDC guidelines, I will respect it.