An unbiased view of the conflict with Iran. What is really happening?

@engineer,

engineer wrote:

I was thinking China instead of Russia.

That would explain the attack on a Japanese flagged vessel during Abe's visit.

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I'd like to point something out to those who think this will be like Iraq. It will be nothing of the sort. Saddam Hussein was another dictator until very recently propped up by the West. He had attacked both Iran and Kuwait and he was a Sunni is a Shia majority country.

Iran hasn't attacked anybody and it's the Shia ruled country in the ME. An attack on Iran is an attack on Shia Islam. Iraq and Bahrain, home of the 5th Fleet, are Shia majority countries and there are significant Shia populations throughout the rest of the ME.

Pretty much all Islamist attacks in the West have been carried out by Sunni terrorists. The Shia groupings tend to confine their efforts to the ME.

This **** between Shia and Sunni has been going on almost from the beginning, it's not something the West should get involved in.

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@izzythepush,

There are Israel's interests at play here, also.

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@InfraBlue,

Yes, but Israel is a relative newcomer compared to the Shia/Sunni split.

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@izzythepush,

For the US, Israel's interests far outweigh any Muslim religious conflicts.

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@engineer,

engineer wrote:

I was thinking China instead of Russia. China gets a lot of oil from Iran and if China said they would protect the Iranian airspace, that would give the US military great pause. They could go ahead with airstrikes against Chinese planes and probably be pretty successful, but the resulting world tensions and economic turmoil would be tremendous. I doubt a rational administration would pull the trigger in that case.

Sorry. I couldn't help highlighting that part.

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@InfraBlue,

Which is why they risk sleepwalking into a shitstorm.

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@engineer,

engineer wrote:

I was thinking China instead of Russia. China gets a lot of oil from Iran and if China said they would protect the Iranian airspace, that would give the US military great pause. They could go ahead with airstrikes against Chinese planes and probably be pretty successful, but the resulting world tensions and economic turmoil would be tremendous. I doubt a rational administration would pull the trigger in that case.

How could China protect Iranian airspace?

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Iran shot down an American drone. I assume that everyone can agree on this one fact regardless of political bias. There is some question about whether said drone was in Iranian airspace when it was shot down. I suspect that I can predict each persons belief based on their bias from previous posts.

It seems to me that Iran is clearly making a statement. Shooting down that drone, with its advanced countermeasures was a technical feat. It is not something that most countries can do.

Iran is not a passive victim here. They are playing a game of high stakes poker with the US, and they are playing their cards well.

It is being reported this morning that there were US planes in the air to strike targets in Iran... but that they were called back last minute.

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@maxdancona,

Advanced countermeasures??? I don't think this was a stealth drone.

And not being a stealth drone makes it unlikely that we violated enemy airspace with it.

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@maxdancona,

Yeah. Trump has a story that may or may not be true - he says he was informed after the plan had been set in motion that we could expect 150 casualties. Trump says it wasn't a proportional response - he hadn't been advised of the casualty count previously, and he told pilots to stand down.

I'm so grateful that I tweeted him a thank you. Ilhan Omar had an impressive thread of adjurations yesterday, begging him not to launch.

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@Lash,

Parts of the story are pretty easy to confirm. You don't get planes in the air for an attack without a lot of people being involved.

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@maxdancona,

I'm pretty sure the drone was over international waters. (I'm sure that is what you predicted I would say that so this is for everyone else I guess.) It's a typical tactic used by a lot of countries to hit something close to the 12 mile line and say it was inside the line. It was an interesting move in that it shows the Iranians have some anti-air capability that I think we doubted they had and it was an unmanned drone so it was the most calculated of escalations. Trump showed more sense than I would have credited him for pulling back from attack. A US attack, even at night and on selected targets would have killed someone. Nothing the Iranians have done (or have been accused of doing) has killed anyone. A US attack would have set us on a course where there could be no negotiation.

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@engineer,

Agreed. And that tiny ego is taking a big hit today from macho armchair warhawks. Hope he can hold it down.

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@engineer,

Now that the story has come out more fully, I have to Trump even more credit. It's clear the hawks who have his ear were ready to blow up some people and Trump's comment that killing 150 people was not a proportional response was exactly right. After air strikes, there is no room for negotiation. (Of course Bolton has said you can't/shouldn't negotiate with Iran anyway.) I think Trump probably gave Iran, their allies and our allies pause by not taking the military route right off the bat.

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@engineer,

A take on Iran's strategy.

Quote:

Having studied the Iranian regime for decades, I believe the purpose of all this, however, is not to start a war with America. More likely, it’s to enter talks with Washington claiming to be the empowered party that has withstood America’s strategy of maximum pressure. Before negotiating with the United States, Iran needs a narrative of success. And the events of the past few days, in which the Trump administration threatened and then backed off a military confrontation, have finally provided Tehran with a justification to enter talks with, in Iran’s telling, a chastened Washington.

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@engineer,

The "purpose" ain't hard to decipher here. The Iranians have been beseiged and threatened forever, by Sunnis and now by the US and Israel to boot. You bet they will try and shoot down any enemy aircraft entering their territory, out of self-protection. It is that simple.

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@Olivier5,

True, but the drone wasn't in their territory. I know they claim otherwise, but that area has plenty of commercial and military air traffic control and if it was actually in their territory, it would be pretty easy to back that claim. The US military is also usually pretty forthcoming when they stray inside someone's 12 mile boundary, again probably because it is easy enough to spot a lie. That drone strike was a calculated move, the question is why.

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@engineer,

I think it could easily have been in their territory. I think you place too much trust in your military's press releases.

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@engineer,

My claim that I could predict the positions of people on this thread wasn't that silly after all (in spite of your valiant attempt to break the pattern).

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An unbiased view of the conflict with Iran. What is really happening?

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