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An unbiased view of the conflict with Iran. What is really happening?

 
 
neptuneblue
 
  3  
Reply Sun 16 Jun, 2019 06:24 pm
Follow the money.

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-3567#post-6857334

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-3567#post-6857335

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-3567#post-6857336

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-3567#post-6857350

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-3567#post-6857363

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-3567#post-6857367

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-3567#post-6857374

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-3569#post-6857666

https://able2know.org/topic/355218-3569#post-6857669

0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 01:11 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:

If Lash is correct, I assume the US is already on the path for an open war (you don't create a casus belli without then moving on to belli).


You're not discussing you're lecturing. It's quite possible these American provocations are a way of testing Iranian resolve.

maxdancona wrote:

My interest in this thread is to understand the strategy


It doesn't sound like you're interested in understanding, you've already made your mind up and now you're pontificating.
roger
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 01:28 am
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:

. It's quite possible these American provocations are a way of testing Iranian resolve.

Well, of course. I should have seen through it myself.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  0  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 04:46 am
I’m going to bring some context.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/japan-s-historic-opportunity-to-play-peacemaker-between-the-us-and-iran

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/06/14/shinzo-abes-mission-iran-ends-flames/%3foutputType=amp

1. Why were Abe’s previous diplomatic trips to Iran dissuaded by the US?
2. We’ve been informed in other news items that Trump is not told everything due to our intelligence community’s distrust of his ability to keep his mouth shut. Could Trump have asked Abe to go to Iran in ignorant opposition to an unfolding anti-Iran CIA op?


3. Iran’s goal: What did they hope to accomplish? Full scale war? This attack hit several countries. Japan and Norway, specifically, but also the sellers and buyers represented in those two attacked ships... Iran, if they are responsible for the attack, are basically positioning themselves as pirates in THE MOST VITAL artery in the world. Every major player in the world would stand against them. So, wtf?

The lack of rational reason for Iran to do this makes me highly suspicious. It is fun to read analysis / hypotheses of the facts, and possible motives.

Also, Max neglected to add SA to the union of countries I think are responsible for the attack.

izzythepush
 
  4  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 05:57 am
@Lash,
If there is a conflict between Iran and US it will give the Russians a chance to try out their missile defence system against American fighters and bombers.

Maybe that's why Putin ordered Trump to start sabre rattling.

Lash
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 07:09 am
@izzythepush,
Is this what you really believe happened—or was it just fun to say?
Ragman
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 07:33 am
@izzythepush,
If you think that Trump is taking orders from Putin, we have a profound misunderstanding of Trump. However it’s worse than what you’re suggesting, because it’s more likely that Putin is just playing him like a fiddle. Trump may respond in a knee-jerk fashion Taking the bait. It’s easy to play Trump and Putin can be seen as a puppet master without commanding Trump overtly.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 07:42 am
@Ragman,
Sadly, this is what I was thinking as I read Izzy’s post—that this type of manipulation would be plausible. But, to me, Trump —without benefit of manipulation— loves to come off as the ‘tough global negotiator’. It’s always been his schtick.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 08:18 am
@izzythepush,
I was thinking China instead of Russia. China gets a lot of oil from Iran and if China said they would protect the Iranian airspace, that would give the US military great pause. They could go ahead with airstrikes against Chinese planes and probably be pretty successful, but the resulting world tensions and economic turmoil would be tremendous. I doubt a rational administration would pull the trigger in that case.
Olivier5
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 08:24 am
@engineer,
engineer wrote:
Yes, [Houtis] are my top suspect.

Me too.
engineer
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 08:31 am
@Olivier5,
It is interesting that the Houthis have been pretty constrained and focused in their attacks. They are not setting off bombs in marketplaces and hospitals unlike the Saudis who are bombing pretty indiscriminately.
Olivier5
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 08:59 am
@engineer,
So far, indeed.

(these things tend to worsen with time, with rebels starting like Robin Hood and ending like Robespierre)
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 09:04 am
This fact might go in the Opinionator Hopper:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/under-trump-arms-deal-high-tech-u-s-bombs-be-n1015346?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

Under Trump arms deal, high-tech U.S. bombs to be built in Saudi Arabia
Democrats in Congress say the administration should not hand the Saudis valuable weapons tech given the kingdom's conduct in Yemen and its human rights record.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 09:06 am
@Olivier5,
Ha! My kid said the same exact thing to me about Democratic Socialism yesterday.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 09:35 am
For any passers-by, interested in Engineer's Houthi theory, here's a multi-linked primer:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31645145

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/81288000/jpg/_81288005_c93a060a-1fb5-4877-9e13-ee3e4450b18a.jpg
Caption under the photo: Ansar Allah's slogan is: "God is great. Death to America. Death to Israel. A curse on the Jews. Victory to Islam."

Ansar Allah (Partisans of God), which is also known as the Houthi movement, has experienced several major transformations in arriving at its current dominant position in Yemeni politics.

It began in the 1990s as a youth-orientated revivalist movement that wanted to defend the religious traditions of a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism.

By the 2000s, it was leading a stubborn military insurgency that enveloped tribal politics in the far northern governorate of Saada. Its objective was to defend itself and its allies against President Ali Abdullah Saleh's military.

When the Arab Spring began in 2011, Ansar Allah was a welcome supporter of the peaceful protests against Mr Saleh and actively participated in the National Dialogue that followed his fall. The group backed regional autonomy, respect for diversity, and the strengthening of a democratic state.

But as the interim government of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi stalled in early 2014, Ansar Allah launched an aggressive military campaign in the north, defeating key military units allied to Gen Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar and the Islah political party.

This culminated in its descent upon the capital, Sanaa, in September 2014.

Ansar Allah was accused of a coup after announcing it planned to dissolve parliament in early February
Ansar Allah's stated aim was to install a more effective interim government to implement the outcomes of the National Dialogue. But clearly, it also sought military dominance in the north.

In the last year, an alliance with its former enemy, Mr Saleh, played a key role in transforming Ansar Allah into the dominant military and political force in the country.

For his part, the former president used the alliance with Ansar Allah to overthrow the Gulf-backed Hadi government and carve a more secure place for himself in future Yemeni politics.

Repression
The source of Ansar Allah's power is principally domestic and political, not religious.

The Zaidi "Sada" - those claiming descent from the Prophet Muhammad's family, and who played a special role in the regimes of the Zaidi Imams that ruled North Yemen for almost 1,000 years until 1962 - were discriminated against by the leaders of the new republican Yemen because they were perceived as a threat.

Many supporters of Ansar Allah adhere to a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism In the liberal period of the 1990s, some of the Sada emerged to search for a place for themselves in the republic. They formed two political parties, al-Haqq (Truth) and Ittihad al-Quwa al-Shaabiyya (Union of Popular Forces).

Al-Shabab al-Muminin (Believing Youth), the predecessor of Ansar Allah, was meanwhile founded by Hussein al-Houthi to revive Zaidi tradition in the face of effective proselytising among the young by Saudi-backed Wahhabis and local Salafists.

But it was the attack of the Saleh regime on al-Shabab al-Muminin that propelled the movement to the fore of Yemeni politics.

Hussein al-Houthi challenged President Saleh's legitimacy by claiming that he was weak and beholden to the United States and its "War on Terror".

In the context of the US-led invasion of Iraq, he chanted: "Death to America. Death to Israel. Curse the Jews. Long live Islam in the Grand Mosque of Sanaa." However, the target of the chant was Mr Saleh, not America or Israel.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 10:02 am
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

engineer wrote:
Yes, [Houtis] are my top suspect.

Me too.


Can you explain what the motive would be for the Houthis to attack international shipping?
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 10:39 am
@Lash,
Bit of each, I'm sure Iran has the Russian system and as Ragman has said Putin is very good at manipulating Trump.

Or it could be that he's been in Putin's pocket all along.

I know Trump's corrupt, whether or not he's corrupt enough to betray his country is another matter, but I wouldn't bet against it.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 10:42 am
@maxdancona,
You don't have much of an imagination if you have to ask that.

Have you seen what the Saudis are doing in Yemen right now with Western manufactured weapons?

If nothing else it sends a message that there's a price to pay when you support despotic regimes.

0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  2  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 11:17 am
@maxdancona,
It's international shipping into and out of Saudi Arabia. They are making the point that the Saudis are not immune to attack.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  0  
Reply Mon 17 Jun, 2019 11:22 am
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:
Can you explain what the motive would be for the Houthis to attack international shipping?

Go after their enemies' revenue stream?

Please the Iranians?

Spread chaos?

Because they can, and want to prove it?
0 Replies
 
 

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