China's Chance

i really don't think that the chinese have the slightest interest in engaging in a war with the U.S.
the united states (and some other countries too) depend on china to supply many of the goods needed to keep their ecomies running. even with a low U.S. dollar china makes plenty of money. as was stated in the earlier article, the chinese are not very particular when it comes to patents and trademarks, and it would be rather difficult to enforce these in china. in the meantime the chinese will be churning out goods for the rest of the world. many of the biggest corporations - from walmart to mercedes - are scrambling to have trade agreements with chinese corporations. seems to suit both sides just fine . hbg

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O'Bill is right, though. We could decide that our security is more important than the junk we can buy at Wal-Mart.

Trade surpluses don't really mean that much. For a lot of developed economies, a trade surplus is just an indication that their economy is so bad their consumers don't have the confidence to spend any money.

Lash - I don't know about China and Russia plotting against us. What I think and have said is that the EU lifting the arms embargo will tick Russia off since they're bound to be testy about any sino-European deals.

The Chinese will use the EU as a bargaining chip against Russia amd will pressure Russia to hand over their production technology as a condition of buying arms from Russia. They (Russia) are sorta on record with those sentiments.

And if this arms thing becomes reality (and it looks like it will), it's not China we'll be seeing with nukes in the near term, but I really, really think we could see a nuclear JAPAN within 12 months (if not sooner).

China is most likely at least 10 years behind us on weapons technology.

All this is just my humble opinion, of course. I'm pretty irritated about the lifting of the arms embargo, though.

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from what i've read in magazines such as "business week" , american companies rely on chinese factories to supply vital electronics and electrical components to keep their factories humming. even electronic parts for military computer installations need the components supplied by chinese factories. from what i've read there would be severe problems if the u.s. would not be able to count on china as a supplier.
just take the typical automobile today, the parts to assemble it come from all over the world . i understand that about 30 to 50% of parts come now from factories outside the united states. all countries benefit from good trade relations; the united states is no exception (anyone seen a television lately built in the u.s. from parts produced in the u.s. ?). hbg

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Lash wrote:

OB--hi.

Don't you think since Russia and China have been plotting together against the US--that Russia has already shared or sold their nuclear plans.

China is so huge. They could have reactors and stuff all over the place...

I have little doubt that China has had Russian Technology for at least a decade and could easily make more weapons, but there is no profit in it. They've had nukes longer than France. They have enough to hit some key U.S. Cities now (with H-bombs, not A-Bombs) which is all it takes to keep us at bay. There is no point in trying to match us because we've already reached the end zone. Attacking us with nuclear weapons is suicide, period. More weapons would only mean they take more of out in the minutes before they're all dead.

Lash wrote:

I bet we hear about their nuclear capability within the next six months.

We may, but only to sell newspapers. China is no more likely to use them than France or the UK. My guess is we're still the most dangerous in that category too. Even the Soviets never played as fast and loose as we have. Again, nukes have been in China for like 40 years already.

Lash wrote:

And. The war scenario you describe doesn't sound like War 2005.

I don't think it would last long enough for our shopping habits to impact.

Could be wrong, though.

I disagree. In the highly unlikely event we ever engage China in battle again I think it will be very conventional and on some third party's soil. I don't believe either would escalate to either's homeland (Dog help us if we did though). It just doesn't compute because it isn't possible to win that kind of exchange with the United States.

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Re: China's Chance
Let's try this again.

I'm trying not to discuss the politics of this - which is why it is NOT in the political area.

I'm trying to look at the global economic implications. There is no Economics forum, and this isn't about travel, so International News it kinda had to be.

ehBeth wrote:

Quote:

Quote:
To suggest that China could challenge America's soft power would have seemed preposterous a decade ago. The Middle Kingdom was a developing nation still reeling from the shock of the Tiananmen massacre, with limited leverage in international affairs, a fear of alliances and a victim mentality. Few Chinese raised in the totalitarian Maoist state knew much about the outside world.

But much has changed in ten years. Though critics of China like myself worry that the country's economic growth is built on shaky foundations, with excessive state-directed investment, for now its economy is booming.

In 2004, China grew by 9.5 per cent. It vies with the US to be the world's largest recipient of foreign direct investment, and it accounted for 16 per cent of all global growth in 2003.

Exports rose from $20bn in 1980 to over $250bn two decades later. Within 15 years, China will probably be the world's second largest economy.

Today it runs a trade surplus of over $100bn with the US, and over $30bn with the EU, soon to be its biggest trading partner.

Quote:

If you're interested in the politics/armaments side, please take that discussion back to politics.

Thanks.

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Is there some reason you feel you need to censor my postings Beth? I responded directly to a post addressed to me. I wasn't far off topic (if indeed I was at all) and considering current issue of Taiwan, my posts were plenty relevant. Why must you get all snippy whenever you encounter me on a thread these days? Did we I have a conversation I don't know about? Feel free to ignore my postings to Lash if you wish but to my knowledge, you have no authority to direct me not to post here or anywhere else. And I most certainly don't appreciate your new attitude.

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I'm asking that this thread be kept on topic. That request is to everyone.

I think we can agree that our feelings about each other's attitudes are reciprocal, O'Bill.

With any luck the thread will be locked, and we can all move on.

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Enjoy your thread. Rolling Eyes

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I thought she was talking to me <lol>.

I'll bow out as well, then.

I don't see how one can discuss China's impact on the global economy (from a US perspective) without taking into account current events, though.

China is interested in building up their military and weaponry as a deterrent against our intervention in the Tawain Strait when and if Taiwan declares independence.

Yes, they have plenty already from Russia, but they're also interested in what else Europe has to offer (i.e. ship-to-ship missiles, airborne warning and control systems and radars).

Fine. We're currently spending around 4% of the GDP on defense and will just mostly likely ramp that up to 6%.

That's all I'll be contributing on this thread. I, too, wish you well with your discussion.

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Well!! I'm very pleased to be thought of as a hysterical female!!!

<surveys lipstick in compact, snaps compact shut, turns on heel)

(stop looking at my butt)

I'm glad the prevailing opinion is that China has no ideas about challenging the US. So, you're saying even though China and Russia have gotten together several times--and both said they are allied to undercut US hegemony--and they are playing War Games together---you are saying their blowing smoke?

You are of the opinion that even though it appears that China has allied with the EU and Russia to challenge the global balance of power--they're bluffing?

Just want to see how I have arrived at such a different conclusion.

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I had this still in a Notepad file on my Desktop:

Quote:

* RNW Press Review - Tuesday 27 June 2006 - by Marijke van der Meer

Protestant daily Trouw turns its attention to the eight-day trip to seven African countries just completed by Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. Trouw says this trip marks a period of "unprecedented Chinese expansion", driven by China's hunger for raw materials.

The West, says Trouw, is not happy about the fact that the Chinese are offering the Africans economic cooperation without lecturing them about how they should run their societies. And indeed, says Trouw, there is a good chance the Africans who will profit from China's interest will be the elite and not the lower classes.

At the same time Trouw points out that the West has stood in the way of economic progress in Africa by putting up a fight when it came to granting African products access to its markets or making cheap AIDS medicines available. "There is no sense in sulking about China getting in the way of Western development policy. When the West itself gets serious about African development, then it can call China to account", says Trouw.

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China's Chance

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