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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Tue 26 Oct, 2021 11:31 am
Climate change promises fall short and risk 'destabilised world and endless suffering', UN says

The world is facing 2.7C warming, the report warned just days before leaders meet for COP26 climate talks with the aim of "keeping 1.5C alive"

Quote:
The latest global climate promises to cut emissions are not yet enough to stay under the dangerous threshold of global heating that would trigger severe climate breakdown, UN scientists have warned.

The UN Environment Programme's (UNEP) latest annual emissions report exposes the gap between what countries have promised and what should be done to achieve the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5C.

It finds each country's action plans - known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) - only knock 7.5% off predicted 2030 emissions, but 55% is needed to meet the 1.5C goal. Beyond 1.5C, more severe impacts of climate change kick in, from extreme weather to rising sea levels.

Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP said we have eight years to "make the plans, put in place the policies, implement them and ultimately deliver the cuts. The clock is ticking loudly."

"Climate change is no longer a future problem. It is a now problem," she said.

It comes just as Australia commits to net zero by 2050 and China sets out its plan to peak carbon emissions by 2030.

The Emissions Gap Report also found the world is facing at least 2.7C of heating this century based on the latest climate promises for 2030. Next week leaders will meet for climate talks at COP26, which aims to "keep 1.5°C alive".

sky
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  4  
Reply Fri 29 Oct, 2021 06:14 am
World is failing to make changes needed to avoid climate breakdown, report finds

Pace of emissions reductions must be increased significantly to keep global heating to 1.5C

Quote:
Every corner of society is failing to take the “transformational change” needed to avert the most disastrous consequences of the climate crisis, with trends either too slow or in some cases even regressing, according to a major new global analysis.

Across 40 different areas spanning the power sector, heavy industry, agriculture, transportation, finance and technology, not one is changing quickly enough to avoid 1.5C in global heating beyond pre-industrial times, a critical target of the Paris climate agreement, according to the new Systems Change Lab report.

The dangerously sluggish pace of decarbonization, made plain just days before the start of crucial UN climate talks in Scotland, further highlights how the world is badly off track in its attempts to curb climate breakdown.

Atmospheric levels of planet-heating gases hit a new record high last year, and the UN has warned the amount of fossil fuel extraction planned by countries “vastly exceeds” the limit needed to keep below the 1.5C threshold.

“We need to pull out the stops in every sector, to transform our power generation, the diets we have, how we manage land and more, all simultaneously,” said Kelly Levin, chief of science at the Bezos Earth Fund, one of the report’s co-authors. “We need transformational change and it’s very clear the trends aren’t moving fast enough.”

From renewable electricity generation to meat consumption to public financing for fossil fuels, the report found that no indicator was showing the required progress to cut emissions in half this decade before eliminating greenhouse gases completely by 2050, which would give the world a chance to keep below 1.5C.

Coal needs to be phased out five times faster than it is now, according to the analysis, while the pace of reforestation needs to be three times faster. Coastal wetlands need to be restored nearly three times faster, climate finance needs to grow 13 times faster and the energy intensity of buildings needs to drop at a rate almost three times faster than now.

In wealthy countries across Europe and North America, the consumption of beef needs to reduce 1.5 times faster than it is now. In these countries with high meat consumption and plentiful alternatives, cutting back to the equivalent of one and a half burgers per person a week would significantly reduce demand for land and greenhouse gas emissions.

There are some glimmers of promise: the global share of electricity generated from solar and wind has grown at 15% annually over the past five years and renewables have become the most cost-effective replacement for coal in most places. Electric vehicle adoption is on the rise, reaching more than 4% of worldwide car sales last year.

The report also found there was a good chance, given proper support, of “exponential” progress in technology such as the direct removal of carbon dioxide from the air, which scientists have said will probably have to be deployed on a grand scale to reduce worsening climate disasters. But overall the picture is of a world moving too slowly to confront the climate crisis.

“While things are heading in the right direction in some areas, we are moving too slowly to avoid 1.5C,” said Sophie Boehm, a climate researcher at World Resources Institute and report co-author. “If that continues, we will fall woefully short of the goals to avoid disastrous climate change. It’s very worrying we are not on track for any of these target areas.”

While progress is lagging in most places, three areas in particular – cement production, steel making and efforts to place a fee on carbon emissions – are stagnating, the report found. A further three – emissions from agriculture, the share of trips made by cars and the deforestation rate – are moving in the wrong direction.

“We need complete u-turns from these areas,” said Levin. “With climate change you can’t just head in the right direction, you need to do it at pace. Without that, we will reach disastrous tipping points.”

There is little optimism that countries will make the required commitments to salvage this situation at the Glasgow talks, known as Cop26, with Boris Johnson, the British prime minister, admitting it is “touch and go” whether the required action will be taken. John Kerry, who is Joe Biden’s climate envoy, has said there will likely be “gaps” in emissions-cutting plans put forward by governments.

Should the world breach 1.5C in global heating, the planet will be hit by an increasing frequency of deadly heatwaves, ruinous storms, disastrous flooding and crop failures, wiping trillions of dollars from economic activity and forcing the displacement of millions of people. António Guterres, secretary general of the UN, has warned the world is risking a “hellish future” through its lack of urgency to confront the crisis.

“We have the technology for the majority of these areas to decarbonize,” said Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, an organization that provided input to the new report. “What we need is political will, and for governments to catch up with the opportunity this transition will bring for their economies.”

guardian
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Reply Fri 29 Oct, 2021 10:47 am
The European aircraft manufacturer Airbus and French airlines have used an aircraft with regenerative fuel for the first time. As the group announced on Friday, an A319neo test aircraft had taken off the day before in the Toulouse area with so-called SAF fuel.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is currently produced mainly from biomass such as unused vegetable and cooking oils. Such biofuels are intended to significantly reduce CO2 emissions, but are currently considerably more expensive than normal paraffin.

Airbus is working on the project with technology group Safran, aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation, France's aerospace research centre Onera and the French Ministry of Transport. Airbus expects results from flight and ground tests with complete biofuel next year.

Airbus pressrelease: First A319neo flight with 100% sustainable aviation fuel
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Reply Thu 4 Nov, 2021 01:59 pm
A dramatic consequence of climate change: when seawater warms, corals die. Since 1998, five "mass bleaching" events have caused severe damage to the Great Barrier Reef.

Cumulative bleaching undermines systemic resilience of the Great Barrier Reef
Quote:
Highlights
• The Great Barrier Reef is being damaged by expanding coral bleaching events
• The cumulative impact of recent bleachings may have reduced larval supply by 71%
• Bleaching events are unique but predictable warm spots and cooler refugia exist
• Refugia have the potential to deliver coral larvae to 58% of the GBR

Summary
Climate change and ENSO have triggered five mass coral bleaching events on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR), three of which occurred in the last 5 years.1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Here, we explore the cumulative nature of recent impacts and how they fragment the reef’s connectivity. The coverage and intensity of thermal stress have increased steadily over time. Cumulative bleaching in 2016, 2017, and 2020 is predicted to have reduced systemic larval supply by 26%, 50%, and 71%, respectively. Larval disruption is patchy and can guide interventions. The majority of severely bleached reefs (75%) are predicted to have experienced an 80%–100% loss of larval supply. Yet restoration would not be cost-effective in the 2% of such reefs (∼30) that still experience high larval supply. Managing such climate change impacts will benefit from emerging theory on the facilitation of genetic adaptation,6,7 which requires the existence of regions with predictably high or low thermal stress. We find that a third of reefs constitute warm spots that have consistently experienced bleaching stress. Moreover, 13% of the GBR are potential refugia that avoid significant warming more than expected by chance, with a modest proportion (14%) within highly protected areas. Coral connectivity is likely to become increasingly disrupted given the predicted escalation of climate-driven disturbances,8 but the existence of thermal refugia, potentially capable of delivering larvae to 58% of the GBR, may provide pockets of systemic resilience in the near-term. Theories of conservation planning for climate change will need to consider a shifting portfolio of thermal environments over time.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -3  
Reply Thu 4 Nov, 2021 10:11 pm
Quote:
A geopolitics and globalization expert said in a newly published book that the Great Lakes region -- and specifically Michigan -- may become the best place on the planet to live by 2050 because of climate change.
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/11/michigan-will-be-the-best-place-to-live-by-2050-because-of-climate-change-new-book-says.html

Conservatives are always welcome here. Progressives, not so much.

Personally I'd bet on Alaska if I was into that climate hysteria nonsense, but it's not my book.
MontereyJack
 
  3  
Reply Thu 4 Nov, 2021 11:23 pm
@oralloy,
still resistant to reality, i see. no hysteria, simple physics. we've known it since the 1890s.. The last of my extended family just moved away from MI, can't say as I blame them.
oralloy
 
  -2  
Reply Thu 4 Nov, 2021 11:50 pm
@MontereyJack,
More space for me.
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2021 04:44 am
@oralloy,
I have to make some time to ride out to the UP to hunt up some "pudding stones" and agates to make cabachons.

MontereyJack
 
  3  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2021 07:04 am
@oralloy,
hope you enjoy it when drought turns your trees into kindling.
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2021 07:24 am
@MontereyJack,
You seem to have missed the article that I quoted and linked.
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2021 07:35 am
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:
I have to make some time to ride out to the UP to hunt up some "pudding stones" and agates to make cabachons.

Visit Tahquamenon Falls if you've never done so -- the upper falls in particular.

And if you've ever enjoyed Gordon Lightfoot's song about the Edmund Fitzgerald, swing by the Great Lakes Shipwreck Museum that is nearby.
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2021 08:40 am
@oralloy,
Another great song about perils of great+ lakes sailors is White Squall, by stan Roger's who was from the other side, Ontario I think. It's on youtube.
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2021 08:49 am
@oralloy,
Nope
Pyoull note he talks about gw as catastrophic so best place is only relative amongst hellholes.
s. Whoopie ****
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2021 12:42 pm
@oralloy,
I used to do contract geology for Oglebay Norton mines (The owners of the Fitz) . when they brought up the fitz's bell they had a somber memorial near the duluth docks (where the bigass ore carriers do horn salutes)
Very moving.

I believe they do gold panning at the Tahquamenon Falls
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2021 12:43 pm
@MontereyJack,
my fav Stan Rogrs song is NORTHWEST PASSAGE
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Reply Fri 5 Nov, 2021 01:10 pm
@farmerman,
I'm watching quite a bit live webcams from the Great Lakes. This summer, I saw a "Mackinaw boat", a type of boat, which was for a century the “pickup truck” of Lakes Michigan, Huron and Superior.

https://i.imgur.com/KoRuJ3km.jpg

That boat reminded me a lot on the one I learnt sailing on and participated on regattas during Kiel Week

https://i.imgur.com/Aeu5jK9m.jpg
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2021 09:08 am
COP26: Climate pledges will cut global warming by just a few tenths of a degree, analysis claims

The Climate Action Tracker says some COP26 commitments were already included in national plans to cut carbon lodged with the UN.

Quote:
Pledges to cut methane, coal and protect forests made at COP26 will reduce global warming by just a few tenths of a degree - with temperatures on course to be at least 2.4C higher by 2100, according to the first major assessment of commitments at the summit.

The analysis raises serious concerns about the conference's primary objective to "keep 1.5 degrees alive".

"While the wave of net zero targets appears like remarkable news, we can't sit back and relax," said Professor Niklas Hohne, of the Cologne-based New Climate Institute.

"All countries must urgently look at what more they can do."

The Climate Action Tracker estimates that even with the pledges made in Glasgow, global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will still be around twice as high as the globally agreed 1.5C target for warming.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, exceeding 1.5C of warming risks passing global tipping points and temperature extremes that will put significantly more of the world's population at risk of dangerous climate change.

More than 100 countries committed to cut methane emissions by 30%, for example.

But the Climate Action Tracker analysis found that some of these commitments were already included in national plans to cut carbon lodged with the UN.

Remove such double-counting as well as commitments made on methane, trees and phasing out coal means they would have less impact on global warming than claimed.

Most of the promises made at COP26 are for longer term "net zero" targets. Take the world's biggest emitters: China promising net zero by 2060, the US by 2050, and India's recently announced target of 2070.

But the rate of global warming means we'll be approaching 1.5C as soon as 2030, so near-term targets to cut emissions are what counts.

So far, few countries have published detailed plans of how they plan to get there.

"The vast majority of 2030 actions and targets are inconsistent with net zero goals: there's a nearly one degree gap between government current policies and their net zero goals," said Bill Hare, chief executive of Berlin-based Climate Analytics, which contributes to the Climate Action Tracker analysis.

"It's all very well for leaders to claim they have a net zero target, but if they have no plans as to how to get there, and their 2030 targets are as low as so many of them are, then frankly, these net zero targets are just lip service to real climate action.

"Glasgow has a serious credibility gap," he said.

The analysis considered a more optimistic scenario, in which countries carry out all the commitments in their national plans submitted to the UN process, as well as all the announcements made at the climate summit, on time, and in full. That reduced warming to 1.8C by 2100.

One thing that could make that far from perfect scenario look more credible would be agreement in Glasgow on the "rulebook" of the Paris Agreement.

A binding agreement would leave countries less wiggle-room to delay, or cheat their way out of living up to their existing carbon-cutting pledges, say analysts.

sky.com
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2021 12:17 pm
@hightor,
Developed by Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute and CAN, the CCPI analyses and compares climate change mitigation efforts across 60 countries (plus EU as a whole) with the highest emissions. Together these countries account for 90 percent of global emissions. The index aims to enhance transparency in international climate politics and enable comparison of mitigation efforts and progress made by individual countries.

The Climate Change Performance Index 2022
Quote:
Race Towards Climate Neutrality Is Underway: CCPI’s top countries lead the way
• Scandinavian countries, together with the United Kingdom and Morocco, lead the ‘race to zero’
• Australia, South Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan are among the worst performers
• Netherlands and Greece are the biggest climbers since last year, while Latvia, Croatia, Belarus and Algeria have fallen down the rankings

Scandinavian countries lead the way in climate protection, together with Morocco and the United Kingdom. Leaders Denmark, Sweden, and Norway occupy ranks four through six in the new Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) 2022. Places one to three again remain vacant because no country’s measures thus far have been sufficient to achieve an overall ‘very high’ rating – none are following a path necessary to keep global warming within the 1.5°C limit.

Scandinavian countries achieved the best results mainly thanks to their outstanding efforts in renewable energy. Notably, Norway stands out as the only country to be awarded a ‘very high’ rating in this category. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation are the worst-performing countries in renewable energy, with a ‘very low’ rating. The United Kingdom and Morocco, ranked 7th and 8th overall, were among the leaders in all categories. The UK also performs well in greenhouse gas emissions metrics.

In the overall ranking, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and South Korea are among the worst performers. Australia receives ‘very low’ ratings in every CCPI category and slips four places in the overall ranking. The Netherlands and Greece are the biggest climbers, while Croatia, Belarus and Algeria fall in most of the category rankings. From the G20 countries, only the EU, along with the UK and India, rank among the high performers, while six G20 countries are very low performers. Hungary and Slovenia are this year’s worst-performing EU countries.

In the CCPI’s Climate Policy category, many ambitious states clearly have resolutely embarked on their paths to climate neutrality, including the Scandinavian states, Morocco, the Netherlands, Portugal, and France. Germany and the EU follow at some distance in the upper mid-levels. However, five EU states are also ranked poorly. The worst ranking EU countries are: Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic. At the bottom of the table are the biggest laggards: Australia – with the worst possible score – is still ranked worse than Brazil and Algeria.

The world’s largest emitter, China, slips four places to 37th, with an overall ‘low’ rating. Its biggest problem areas are high emissions and very poor energy efficiency. In both areas, the 2030 targets are also far from a Paris Agreement-compatible pathway. In contrast, China’s trend in renewable energy is very good, even before Germany (23rd). The first year of the Biden Administration has a positive impact on the United States’ performance. In last year’s CCPI, the US was at the bottom, but this year it climbs six ranks to 55th, though remaining in the ‘very low’ ranks.

India retains its 10th place in the ranking and is a high performer except for its rank in the renewable energy category, where it is rated ‘medium’. The country still benefits from its relatively low per capita emissions. However, in the mid-term trend, these are quickly rising and only the ambitious implementation of strong climate targets can prevent India from falling in the CCPI ranking. PM Modi’s announcements on increased 2030 targets sound promising but are not yet included in the ranking.

Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Reply Tue 9 Nov, 2021 12:19 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
https://i.imgur.com/OD09Awj.jpg
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Sat 13 Nov, 2021 01:55 pm
India and Iran say no to including fossil fuels in a COP26 climate agreement
 

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