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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 07:00 am
@MontereyJack,
Quote:
The mission of the American Family Association is to inform, equip, and activate individuals to strengthen the moral foundations of American culture, and give aid to the church here and abroad in its task of fulfilling the Great Commission.

PHILOSOPHICAL STATEMENT
The American Family Association believes that God has communicated absolute truth to mankind, and that all people are subject to the authority of God’s Word at all times. Therefore AFA believes that a culture based on biblical truth best serves the well-being of our nation and our families, in accordance with the vision of our founding documents; and that personal transformation through the Gospel of Jesus Christ is the greatest agent of biblical change in any culture.

ABOUT US:

American Family Association (AFA), a non-profit 501(c)(3) organization, was founded in 1977 by Donald E. Wildmon, who was the pastor of First United Methodist Church in Southaven, Mississippi, at the time. Since 1977, AFA has been on the front lines of America’s culture war. The original name of the ministry was National Federation for Decency but was changed to American Family Association in 1988.

Today, AFA is led by AFA President Tim Wildmon, and it continues as one of the largest and most effective pro-family organizations in the country with hundreds of thousands of supporters.


Isn't that just special.

Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 07:06 am
@blatham,
At least I found there the background and reason why our resident climate scientist Glenn insist to get an answer about those 97%:

Quote:
https://i.imgur.com/szi0Qn8.jpg
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 07:15 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Just adding that there can be totally different views
Quote:
The Evangelical Church in Germany (EKD) is committed to help humanity find ways to live within the ecological and social boundaries of our planet and to halt climate change.
[...]
Global change processes such as climate change are frightening, but they also offer an opportunity: Since the problems can only be overcome globally, Bishop Annette Kurschus, Vice-Chairwoman of the EKD Council, is counting on a "world community of equals among equals with a common interest in life".
Source: Evangelical Church in Germany "Climate Change"
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 07:25 am
@Walter Hinteler,
I've written a bit about this before. There are strains of Protestantism in the US that are extremely primitive theologically and philosophically. When I was doing religious studies courses at university, we were assigned a book by one of these fellows (sorry, can't recall name) who made the argument that science does not and cannot provide us with increased understanding because the more we learn via science, the more we realize we do not know.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 07:51 am
@blatham,
I remember that you wrote about such.

European protestants/evangelicals are different. Just look at those Scandinavians (the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Denmark is a "state church").

Scandinavian Wine? A Warming Climate Tempts Entrepreneurs
Quote:
Hotter weather is fueling efforts to create a commercial wine industry in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

SKAERSOGAARD, Denmark — On a mild autumn morning, Sven Moesgaard climbed a sunbathed hill and inspected an undulating expanse of neatly planted vines. A picking crew was harvesting tons of hardy Solaris grapes that he would soon turn into thousands of bottles of crisp white and sparkling Danish wine.

A decade ago, winemaking was regarded as a losing proposition in these notoriously cool climes. But as global temperatures rise, a fledgling wine industry is growing from once-unlikely fields across Scandinavia, as entrepreneurs seek to turn a warming climate to their advantage.

“We’re looking for the opportunities in climate change,” said Mr. Moesgaard, the founder of Skaersogaard Vin, cradling a cluster of golden grapes. “In the coming decades, we’ll be growing more wine in Scandinavia while countries that have traditionally dominated the industry produce less.”
[...]
The growth has been rapid: Denmark now boasts 90 commercial vineyards, up from just two 15 years ago, and around 40 have sprung up in Sweden. Nearly a dozen vineyards are operating as far north as Norway.
[...]
“We’re still a drop in the bucket,” said Hans Münter, the head of the Danish Wine Association. “Right now, we don’t have the volume to evaluate if this is a good business or just a business.”

Yet in 50 years, Scandinavia’s climate is forecast to be more like northern France’s, as regional temperatures climb as much as 6 degrees Celsius. In the last decade alone, warming has produced milder winters, a longer growing season — and a small but rising number of award-winning wines.[...]
Nordic vintners are emboldened to invest as they watch Southern European wine producers struggle with a more volatile climate. Grapes, including sensitive varieties used for white wine, burned on the vine this summer in parts of France, Spain and Italy as temperatures topped 105 degrees Fahrenheit.

Climatologists say the global wine map could be transformed by 2050. Dominant producing countries in Europe and Latin America, along with parts of California and Australia, may become too hot to grow grapes, while areas not traditionally known for winemaking — including China — take off.

Winemakers in France are experimenting with grapes from warmer countries like Tunisia to see if they can retain the blockbuster tastes and yields that generate billions of euros in worldwide sales. Spanish and Italian winemakers are planting higher on mountainsides or on shaded north-facing slopes to keep wine flavors recognizable.

But half a century from now, those regions may no longer be a safe haven, while the climate for growing in Denmark and neighboring countries may improve. Already, winemakers here are credited with creating white wines with crisp, structured flavors that are fading in southern climes where heat is reducing grape acidity.
[...]
Nordic vintners point to southern England, where a world-class sparkling wine industry has emerged around a warming climate. Companies including Taittinger of France have invested in land in Britain to hedge against the effect of temperature spikes in Champagne.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 08:02 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
European protestants/evangelicals are different.
Yes. My Mennonite heritage/upbringing was an instance of this.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 08:10 am
@Walter Hinteler,
A significant number of the Evangelicals in the US have adopted a "stewards of the environment" within their liturgy. Several of their sects began adding courses in ecology and climatology within their own universities. The Fundamentalist Evangelicals are still mulling it over because it challenges their Full Biblical Inerrancy "clause" .
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 08:47 am
@oralloy,
Oh you do.
Glennn
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 11:25 am
@hightor,
Quote:
as long as he can find some off-the-wall site staffed with Neanderthals spouting an anti-environmental line of pseud0-science

Just last month, NOAA issued this statement:

In the Atlantic, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activities–and particularly GHGs that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on hurricane activity...In short, the historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.”
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Somehow you believe that readers don't understand that you insult their intelligence when you refer to the NOAA as Neanderthals spouting pseudo-science. And somehow you believe that they won't recognize that as an act of desperation on your part.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

In January 2005, NOAA began recording temperatures at its newly built U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). USCRN includes 114 pristinely maintained temperature stations spaced relatively uniformly across the lower 48 states. NOAA selected locations that were far away from urban and land-development impacts that might artificially taint temperature readings.

The USCRN has eliminated the need to rely on, and adjust the data from, outdated temperature stations. Strikingly, as shown in the graph below, USCRN temperature stations show no warming since 2005 when the network went online
.

Graph can be seen at this link:

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2019/08/23/climate_alarmists_foiled_no_us_warming_since_2005.html


Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 11:39 am
@Glennn,
Glennn wrote:

Just last month, NOAA issued this statement:
Some other sites posted exactly this as of published 1 Nov, 2019/4 Apr 2017/3 Sep 2019/5 Apr 2017/7 Jun 2018 ... ...
All saying Just last month, NOAA issued this statement

So much resp. intelligence.
Glennn
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 11:55 am
@Walter Hinteler,
They were quoting the original article. Are you denying that the NOAA issued that statement?
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 11:56 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Actually, Glenn's quoted "statement from last month" is even older than 2017.

The latest statement is from August 15, 2019
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration - Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research wrote:
A review of existing studies, including the ones cited above, lead us to conclude that: it is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes.
NOOA - GDFDL report
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 12:00 pm
@Glennn,
Glennn wrote:

They were quoting the original article. Are you denying that the NOAA issued that statement?
None of the sites nor you gave a link to the original report.

If they/you were quoting the original report
• it was published several times over the last couple of years with the very same text (but why not linking them?)
• my linked report is nonsense (but why is it still online?)
Glennn
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 12:05 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
The statement from my link was actual findings that reflect reality. The one you've supplied is a projection. And we all know the worth of projections and predictions, don't we? They believe it is likely that hurricanes in the coming century will be more intense. Be sure to post something from them when they are sure.

In January 2005, NOAA began recording temperatures at its newly built U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN). USCRN includes 114 pristinely maintained temperature stations spaced relatively uniformly across the lower 48 states. NOAA selected locations that were far away from urban and land-development impacts that might artificially taint temperature readings.

The USCRN has eliminated the need to rely on, and adjust the data from, outdated temperature stations. Strikingly, as shown in the graph below, USCRN temperature stations show no warming since 2005 when the network went online.

Graph can be seen at this link:

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2019/08/23/climate_alarmists_foiled_no_us_warming_since_2005.html
__________________________________________________________________________________________

How about that bit of info. You have a problem with that?
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 12:05 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
I also looked for an attribution to NOAA and couldnt find anything. I think maybe Glenn got it as a bit of hizzown wishful thought
0 Replies
 
Glennn
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 12:10 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
From your link:

There is less confidence in future projections of the global number of Category 4 and 5 storms, since most modeling studies project a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.

. . . Model-based climate change detection/attribution studies have linked increasing tropical Atlantic SSTs to increasing greenhouse gases, but proposed links between increasing greenhouse gases and hurricane PDI or frequency has been based on statistical correlations. The statistical linkage of Atlantic hurricane PDI to Atlantic SST suggests at least the possibility of a large anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricanes.

. . .The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

That was from your own link . . .

. . . Existing records of past Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane numbers (1878 to present) in fact do show a pronounced upward trend, which is also correlated with rising SSTs (e.g., see blue curve in Fig. 4 or Vecchi and Knutson 2008). However, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number of storms would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based “observing network of opportunity.” We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly distinguishable from zero.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 12:16 pm
@Glennn,
I can read. I even can read a full report. From the beginning to the end.

And additionally, which will surprise you immensely, I do know that the U.S.A. isn't the world.


But certainly you'll post the link for the so often quoted "last month's report" with your next post, isn't it?
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 12:29 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
read this, its NOAA.gov, not NOaa.org.

READ ME IM NOAA DOT GOV
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 12:37 pm
@Glennn,
Quote:
“In the Atlantic, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activities–and particularly GHGs that cause global warming–have already had a detectable impact on hurricane activity...In short, the historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.”

So what? This statement does not challenge the scientific consensus that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is leading to higher global temperatures. It's very difficult to attribute local events to a global phenomenon, especially when Atlantic hurricanes have been a yearly event long before records were even kept. "Premature" conclusions don't rule out subsequent findings which could confirm the original hypothesis — or not.
livinglava
 
  2  
Reply Sun 10 Nov, 2019 12:48 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

“First of all, there is an attempt being made by them to deflect attention away from finding policy solutions to global warming towards promoting individual behaviour changes that affect people’s diets, travel choices and other personal behaviour,” said Mann. “This is a deflection campaign and a lot of well-meaning people have been taken in by it.”

Those individual behavior changes are the bottom line of what has to change to solve the climate threat. As long as you go on talking about regulatory changes without people changing behavior, the industrial lobbyists and lawyers and politicians will just go on finding ways to tell people that their bad choices are green to prevent them from spending less on petroleum products, energy, etc. by using less of it.

The general economic growth mentality is that the more consumers buy and spend the more money circulates and the better that is economically for everyone. They don't want people giving up driving and spending less on fuel, pavement, etc. They don't want people and businesses changing their thermostat habits to decimate sales of electricity and the fossil fuels that are burnt to generate it. They don't want people buying less meats and animal products, because there is an industry of pasturing and slaughtering animals, processing the meats and other products, etc.

Quote:
Mann stressed that individual actions – eating less meat or avoiding air travel – were important in the battle against global warming. However, they should be seen as additional ways to combat global warming rather than as a substitute for policy reform.

Policies are created to assist industries in serving customers. You can try to reform policies to enact change, but there will be an enormous onslaught of lobbying to obstruct the change. Democratic institutions can be abused to protect popular bad habits against reform. That is the dark side of democracy.

Quote:
We should also be aware how the forces of denial are exploiting the lifestyle change movement to get their supporters to argue with each other. It takes pressure off attempts to regulate the fossil fuel industry. This approach is a softer form of denial and in many ways it is more pernicious.”

Yes, getting people to argue over plastic bags and straws to discredit really significant behavior changes like transportation reform, energy-use reform, and land-use reform are popular because they shift attention away from lifestyle habits that sustain the industries that don't want to change and lose money.
0 Replies
 
 

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