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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
parados
 
  2  
Reply Sat 9 Jan, 2010 09:24 pm
@ican711nm,
Quote:

The 1910 temperature has been graphed as the lowest temperature for the period 1850 to 2010. So it could be true that the 1910 to 2010 temperature increase is nothing more than a rescue from a low temperature to a normal temperature.
That might be true if you want to ignore the long term graphs you have posted here. The temperature is currently in high end of those cycles so to claim we are going to a normal temperature

Quote:
But the last few years show a small temperature decrease. It has been reported that this winter throughout the northern hemisphere has been an unusually cold one.
These 'facts' only seem to occur in the minds of people like you ican.
1. The numbers were shown to mathematicians without telling them what they were for and all agreed there was no 'downward trend'.
2. The only reported colder than normal is the month of December. Last time I checked winter starts about Dec 21 and goes through about March 21. Anyone claiming the current winter is colder than normal is lying or completely nuts. This was already pointed out before but I am willing to say it in stronger terms.
ican711nm
 
  0  
Reply Sun 10 Jan, 2010 10:53 am
@parados,
parados wrote:
2. The only reported colder than normal is the month of December. Last time I checked winter starts about Dec 21 and goes through about March 21. Anyone claiming the current winter is colder than normal is lying or completely nuts. This was already pointed out before but I am willing to say it in stronger terms.

If my watch and I are correct, today's date is January 10, 2010.

It has been alleged by people like you who are correct, wrong, smart, dumb, truth tellers, sane, "lying or completely nuts" that these January days in the northern hemisphere are colder than they were in some, several or all previous years.

If my memory is correct, one thing I know from my own personal experience, is that these first 10 January days in 2010 in central Texas, are colder than these same January days in central Texas in previous years since 1998.

However, tomorrow has been forecast by people like you who are correct, wrong, smart, dumb, truth tellers, sane, "lying or completely nuts" to be warmer than today.
Adanac
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Jan, 2010 02:49 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:


All of which has been done by a scientific community that numbers in the thousands.




There may indeed be thousands of scientists contributing to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but on any particular aspect of the overall story all have to rely on the word of the few scientists who are directly involved. And when the particular aspect concerns experimental data on which the whole story rests, the data purporting to show the world is getting warmer, then the consensus argument is indeed on shaky ground.
okie
 
  0  
Reply Sun 10 Jan, 2010 03:04 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:

Quote:
You really are dumb, or you simply twist what has been said, Parados, true to being lawyerly. I have never said there has definitely not been warming. What I have said is that the data that shows warming is questionable, thats all.

ROFLMAO.. So. you aren't saying there is or isn't warming? You are saying you don't have a clue.

OK.. I'll accept you don't have a clue about anything. However I see no reason to accept your argument that no one else has a clue either since others have actually done the research.

You seem to get it wrong every time, Parados. To repeat, what I am saying is that there is good evidence that many weather stations are poorly sited and that they may be delivering faulty data. Until we can collect sound data, we cannot properly analyze the data. Parados, I have posted alot of information on this already, but you should educate yourself on this by going to the website http://wattsupwiththat.com/
They have been documenting very bad siting situations of weather stations, not only a huge number in the United States, but also Australia and other places, and I notice now they have one huge problem for Antarctica. I would highly suggest you start reading up on this.

This entire global warming political fiasco is based upon a fraction of 1 degree C, and therefore it makes total sense to me as a person that has been involved in scientific endeavors in my career, it is only simple logic to first make sure you are collecting sound and accurate data before you begin making the giant leap to draw conclusions and make policy from the data, based upon less than 1 degree C.

To recount my opinion about supposed warming, I think it is possible, perhaps likely that there might be a very minor amount, but I believe that the degree of warming if there is any, has not been determined yet as to the amount of warming because the data is not yet trustworthy enough to know. At this point in time, I believe the very minor amount of warming that could be is entirely likely to be due to solar cycles and nothing more, at least we so far have insufficient evidence to conclude anything more than that so far. The research and evidence so far put forth by global warmers have been shown to be based upon unsound data, even fraudulant data, and therefore this is more of a political firestorm than a scientific crisis. If there is a crisis, it is that of fraudulant and questionable scientific work, not global warming.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Jan, 2010 05:36 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:
You seem to get it wrong every time, Parados. To repeat, what I am saying is that there is good evidence that many weather stations are poorly sited and that they may be delivering faulty data.

But you provided no evidence that those sites are included in the data.
Simply posting a picture of a site doesn't prove anything other than you can find pictures.

Of course when you look at the way the numbers are actually used it tells a completely different story from your claim.
Quote:
The GHCN/USHCN/SCAR data are modified in two steps to obtain station data from which our tables, graphs, and maps are constructed. In step 1, if there are multiple records at a given location, these are combined into one record; in step 2, the urban and peri-urban (i.e., other than rural) stations are adjusted so that their long-term trend matches that of the mean of neighboring rural stations. Urban stations without nearby rural stations are dropped.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
So, the pictures don't prove anything other than you are attempting to discredit without bothering to look at the reality of how any of those stations would be used.
1. Many of those stations would be dropped completely
2. Any left would be averaged with other stations to reduce their effect and then that average would be adjusted to follow the same trend as nearby rural stations. This would minimalize if not negate the effects of a "faulty" station.

okie wrote:
They have been documenting very bad siting situations of weather stations, not only a huge number in the United States, but also Australia and other places, and I notice now they have one huge problem for Antarctica. I would highly suggest you start reading up on this.

I have done my reading. It seems you haven't.

Let me ask you again..
What evidence do you have that the stations you posted pictures of are included in the data that shows a temperature increase?

Let me make this as simple as I can okie. If you want to claim data is flawed you first have to show that you are dealing the the actual data. You have not shown that.
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Jan, 2010 05:38 pm
@ican711nm,
Quote:

If my memory is correct, one thing I know from my own personal experience, is that these first 10 January days in 2010 in central Texas, are colder than these same January days in central Texas in previous years since 1998.

Which is a completely meaningless argument since the first 10 days in January are NOT the entire winter nor is central Texas the ENTIRE globe.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Jan, 2010 05:45 pm
@Adanac,
Adanac wrote:



There may indeed be thousands of scientists contributing to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but on any particular aspect of the overall story all have to rely on the word of the few scientists who are directly involved. And when the particular aspect concerns experimental data on which the whole story rests, the data purporting to show the world is getting warmer, then the consensus argument is indeed on shaky ground.

Gee.. so did you bother to check the work and prove what you claim is the work of only a few wrong?

Warming is occurring not just because of the work of a few scientists but because of actual observation by regular people.
The ice on lakes is going out earlier
Birds are flying south later and going back earlier
This is not some work of a few scientists - it is the observation of ordinary people.

I have spent 50 years living in the Midwest and when I was young I never would have seen geese flying south in mid December nor would I have seen winters where it is unsafe to go in the ice on Christmas day like it has been more than once in the last 10 years.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Jan, 2010 07:21 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:

Let me ask you again..
What evidence do you have that the stations you posted pictures of are included in the data that shows a temperature increase?

What evidence do you have that they are not? Perhaps you might like to start your research here, Parados.

http://www.surfacestations.org/faqs.htm

I will post the map again showing how many stations are probably providing bad data. This will give you a hint in regard to what I am talking about in regard to unreliable data.

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/files/2009/07/ushcn-surveyed-7-14-09.jpg
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/files/2009/02/crn_ratings.png
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Jan, 2010 07:27 pm
@okie,
One of the questions that commonly comes up is why are surveys being conducted by people other than the government's own climatologists that are responsible for the data? The short answer is because the government is not doing their job properly, they are dropping the ball big time. What is their motivation for not doing their jobs properly, now that is up for interpretation and speculation.

Here is the following question and answer on the following website, Parados, which you should read as a beginning of educating yourself on this.

http://www.surfacestations.org/faqs.htm

Q: Why is a TV/radio meteorologist and volunteers doing this job? Shouldn't this be the work of climate scientists?

A; Well it should be, but the USHCN has been established since 1994, and in that time, the NCDC scientists managing the network have not done this most basic of quality control checks; visiting each station, doing a photographic survey, and determining if the climate monitoring station temperature and rainfall measurement been compromised by any local influences. While there is a metadata system in place, it is primarily designed to show site moves and instrumentation changes. Remote data analysis and applied statistical techniques cannot replace basic observations in all cases. Basic observation of any experiment and recording of what is observed is the foundation of professional science practice. Likewise, sharing such data is also one of those tenets. Therefore during and after the survey is completed, the data will be publicly available for any scientist that wishes to use it to further analyze the data from these stations and provide appropriately calculated adjustments.

While a government survey program may take months of planning, months or years more of execution, and hundreds of thousands of dollars to produce a simple volunteer program like this can easily and without taxpayer cost produce the same or better results, and certainly at a much faster pace. Hopefully this project can serve as a model for a future program administered by NOAA.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Jan, 2010 09:57 pm
@okie,
The map doesn't tell me which stations are used okie.

It only points out you can't answer the question I asked.

I already posted about why certain stations wouldn't be used. You have provided nothing to show that stations are being used
Adanac
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 01:07 am
Quote:
(The Copenhagen Global Warming Conference) is over and, thankfully, what a bust (except for a huge carbon footprint)! Even the (mainstream media) couldn’t spin a win out of this non-event!

My question to you true believers out there is this: How much new data or how much falsified data will it take to shake your faith, take off the blinders and open your minds to even the remote possibility of several less “fatal” alternative climate scenarios such as natural (non man-made) fluctuations or that dire predictions of global catastrophe and our ability to avoid it may be exaggerated? Does it not even bother you why your leaders changed the theme from Global Warming to Climate Change? Did it make you question for even a second?

This really is the perfect example of liberalism vs. conservatism in that liberals tend to see what they want to believe vs. conservatives who generally believe what they see. I believed the planet was warming in the 90s; I just was unsure why it was happening, skeptical of a significant man-made contribution.

However, I also believed what I saw when a decade of cooling followed, but global warming believers didn’t want to see it so they didn’t. Nothing in their almighty computer models predicted this, yet we are to believe their gloom-and-doom scenarios 25-50 years out.

Al Gore’s hurricanes didn’t happen but no matter. The artic ice has always fluctuated and the north polar ice may be declining,

But the Antarctic ice is increasing and virtually unreported. Accurate data appear to indicate that 1920 to 1940 was warmer than now without global Armageddon nor increased carbon dioxide levels. These same computer “climatologists” predicted a coming Ice Age as recently as 1975, also because of man’s activities and CO2.

Do you ask about the significance of the Medieval Warm Period? Believers, dear believers, please tell me these facts and unpredicted events make you scratch your heads just a little. If not, please tell us Deniers what kind of data will it take for you to jump off the “Gorewagon” or at least debate the issue. It is clearly not “settled science.” “Climategate” alone has to suggest this to the intellectually honest.

Global warming/climate change advocates are part of what will undoubtedly be known as the greatest hoax in modern times and Al Gore as the 21st century’s greatest snake oil salesman. Its demise will be barely mentioned in the (mainstream media), just like the global cooling of the 70s. Note it and remember why and who you trusted and believed and learn the lesson. Take your principled stand but keep your eyes and mind open and don’t fall for the next predicted end of the world so easily.

Believe it or not, I am attempting primarily to speak to the young in high school and college who are the most passionate yet impressionable and easily led astray. Remember now how confident you feel about your convictions and why you believe in global warming and then recall how you feel when you finally figure out that you saw what you wanted to believe rather than believing your eyes and realizing that we are to be good stewards of the planet and that, yes, quite naturally actually, the climate changes and always will.

http://www2.madison-news.com/mce/news/opinion/op_ed/article/mc_physician_decries_warming_hoax/50719/
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 07:46 am
@okie,
Even your site admits this okie

Quote:
A: Yes adjustments have been made to account for measurable and predictable data biases

okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 11:54 am
@parados,
parados wrote:

The map doesn't tell me which stations are used okie.

It only points out you can't answer the question I asked.

I already posted about why certain stations wouldn't be used. You have provided nothing to show that stations are being used

The ball is in your court. Show which ones are not being used. If only 1/4 of the ones on the map are being used, it is totally obvious to anyone with common sense that the problem with reliable data is absolutely huge, and I would venture to speculate that the number or portion of stations being used is much greater than 1/4, it could be near all of them.

For whatever reason, you prefer to blindly accept the data as spoonfed you from the bureaucracies, when it has been amply shown and demonstrated that there is a mountain of evidence that the data is highly questionable. And considering we are talking about only a fraction of 1 degree C, on which to make earth shaking political policy, to the point of extremely draconian measures that threaten the very health and livlihood of every human being on the planet, I find this to be blatantly stupid, Parados, or so blatantly in the tank politically that you have totally thrown away all intellectual honesty to achieve your political ends, which is one of extreme socialism.
okie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 12:02 pm
@parados,
parados wrote:

Even your site admits this okie

Quote:
A: Yes adjustments have been made to account for measurable and predictable data biases



Yes, and is the original data and scientific methods and extent available for public review and cross checking? It has been reported in the recent evidence of fraud that they are not in many cases, Parados.

I find it amazing that okay, perhaps you now accept the fact that countless weather stations are delivering very bad data, but just wave a magic wand and crank in some corrections and all is okay again. The people have already shown their weather stations are delivering bad data, so accepting some magical correction from the very same people would seem to me to offer even greater risks of bad data. That would be akin to using rain gauges that are calibrated wrong and placed in the wrong place, but don't worry, we will just crank into the results a correction factor, but we won't tell you what the factor is or how it was derived. That would be laughable for any credible scientist to claim. It is my opinion that these guys should be laughed out of town, fired, and some credible people hired that know what they are doing. Accepting bad data after bad data is just inexcusable. Besides, it is our tax dollars supporting some of this crap that they are trying to call credible scientific work.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 12:08 pm
@okie,
okie wrote:

The ball is in your court. Show which ones are not being used.


That should be very easy using the international call signs of the stations ...

This discussion about the stations really makes me wonder: none of all those 'private' stations is used for official data I think. (At least, not in Europe, where all stations are constructed according the international standards [DIN EN ISO/IEC 17025 et.al.].)
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 12:21 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

That should be very easy using the international call signs of the stations ...


Since I'd worked as a weather observer on a weather ship (not really - but our boat took the position and duty of a weather ship for 14 days Wink ) I was too much thinking in maritime terms.

Though all official stations have call signs, it's called by the WMO "station index number" officially.

The code number of footnotes for stations operating in the USA is '9' by the way ...
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 02:56 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb
As of December 20, 2007, more than 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries have voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report
349
Professor Emeritus Peter R Odell of International Energy Studies at the University of Rotterdam questioned why global temperatures have not increased since 1998. "The UK's Meteorological Office research centre has now had to confirm a fall in average global temperatures since 1998. This clearly opens to challenge the widely-held view that it is primarily the growth in carbon dioxide emissions, released by mankind's use of carbon fuels, that cause global warming," Odell wrote on August 13 in an unpublished letter to the UK Guardian newspaper. "Indeed, since 1998 there has been a record near-25% increase in the production and use of coal, oil and natural gas - totaling an additional 2000 million tons of oil equivalent over the nine year period. Two-fifths of this has been coal, the most polluting of the three carbon fuels, so generating voluminous additional carbon dioxide for the atmosphere. Yet, in spite of an all-time peak period of carbon fuels' use, it seems that no overall global warming phenomenon has been generated!" Odell wrote. "Thus, instead of the Met Office's think-tank apparent acceptance of the concept of a demonstrable relationship between global warming and carbon dioxide emissions for its future forecasts, should it not first be held responsible for an explanation as to why this has not happened over the past nine years - and why it will not happen for at least the next three years?" he asked.

ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 03:00 pm
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
Jan-Dec Global Mean Temperature over Land & Ocean
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2009
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/nhshgl.gif
Average Annual Global Temperature 1850-2009
parados
 
  0  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 10:04 pm
@okie,
Quote:
Yes, and is the original data and scientific methods and extent available for public review and cross checking? It has been reported in the recent evidence of fraud that they are not in many cases, Parados.

When in doubt just make up facts okie?
What fraud was reported?
parados
 
  0  
Reply Mon 11 Jan, 2010 10:05 pm
@ican711nm,
Meanwhile 2000 scientists in just the US have expressed their opinion in support of the consensus.
0 Replies
 
 

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