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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 01:25 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:


I am well aware that true pollution comes mostly from heavy metals, and radioactives released into the environment during energy production.

Reducing CO2 emissions isn't as important to me as reducing the levels of truly toxic agents that are released yearly. Nevertheless; it certainly can't hurt to do so when possible.

I envision, George, a gradual change; instead of mandating immediate changes, we make rules for new factories and businesses that phase the higher restrictions in over time. Advances in technology not only make this cheaper, they can make it downright profitable. I don't think the 'tipping point' has been reached, or even close, but it probably does exist; closed systems can only take so much instability before they collapse.

As I said, I'm not trying to be alarmist; just taking the long look.

Cycloptichorn
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 01:30 pm
Not this nut.

Most anti-nuclear power people need to read up on the more modern techniques of power generation.

A question, as you seem well-versed on this, George: I've recently been reading quite a bit on the large amounts of radioactives being released through coal burning in America, especially in the less efficient plants. I've seen numbers as high as in the millions of pounds of emissions. I know that such emissions must be pretty diffuse, and that pretty much everything has some latent radioactivity; in your opinion, is this a health threat? Is it something that should be addressed? I know that modern coal plants are much cleaner...

Also, I've been reading quite a bit on DUranium and the uranium dust that is created upon shell impact; any thought?

Cycloptichorn
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 01:43 pm
Piffka wrote:

I assume you are talking to me since Squinney hasn't posted all weekend. Fixing the problem and mitigating the effects are two different things. Every scientific body and commentator has said we need to continue to study this carefully, nobody thinks we have a full picture.

You say there is no scientific basis for these predictions? I think that could be argued, but it also could stem from not having the long-range simulations which this government has chosen not to fund as well as not giving credence to any outside simulations developed by other nations.

"Absurd" tipping point? Large body of reason to reject them out of hand?
George, I asked if you would point us to the place where you get your executive summaries and detailed information. Surely there is something online.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 02:15 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:

A question, as you seem well-versed on this, George: I've recently been reading quite a bit on the large amounts of radioactives being released through coal burning in America, especially in the less efficient plants. I've seen numbers as high as in the millions of pounds of emissions. I know that such emissions must be pretty diffuse, and that pretty much everything has some latent radioactivity; in your opinion, is this a health threat? Is it something that should be addressed?


I know that modern coal plants are much cleaner...

Also, I've been reading quite a bit on DUranium and the uranium dust that is created upon shell impact; any thought?

Cycloptichorn
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 02:19 pm
Cut off?

I've read that the dust created during abalation with DU is not even considered to be safe to breathe by US soldiers within 50 meters w/o mask. Doesn't seem very safe to me, but I'll wait on the rest of yer comment.

Cycloptichorn
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 31 Jan, 2005 02:28 pm
Well a DU projectile headed for an enemy tank is certainly dangerous to the tank crew. Impact and burning are what will get them. It seems likely that breathing dust containing uranium fines could well be harmful. The oxide is likely a bit like talcum powder and therefore dangerous (but easily filtered out). The metallic form is not a hazard. Interestingly plutonium behaves similarly. It is an alpha emitter and not particularly dangerous externally. The oxide is easily taken up by the body through the lungs, but the metallic form presents little hazard. (Mercury on the other hand will vaporize at atmospheric pressure and is easily absorbed through the lungs)
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 07:05 am
Piffka wrote:
You are saying that the Washington Post is not a reputable newspaper? I'm surprised.

No, I'm not, and I am surprised how you can read that into what I actually wrote, which was:

Thomas wrote:
This included some serious misreporting by the Independent, a newspaper whose standing is comparable to the Washington Post's.

My point -- I think obvious enough -- was that the Independent and the Washington Post are both reputable newspapers, and that even reputable newspapers routinely misreport the scientific community's research results on global warming.

Piffka wrote:
<Peer-reviewed science from Battelle, ExxonMobil, Dupont Fluorcarbons, ESKOM (one of the world's largest electricity utilities and the national power company in South Africa), plus Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.>

That's a bold accusation. Would you care to provide evidence that the current state of climatology is significantly corrupted by industrial bribes?

Piffka wrote:
Actually, I do want to know the science. I am not personally worried for myself.

Now you're contradicting your own claim from about five pages back, which was that "Climatic change, particularly abrupt change, would be disastrous for most of us..."

Piffka wrote:
So you agree there will be global warming... but you believe that the scale is questionable and likely not-catastrophic.

Yes, I do.

Piffka wrote:
I have questioned how it will affect me and you say it won't.

No I didn't. I said that it would affect humanity -- implicitly including you -- less than a concerted effort to stop global warming would.

Piffka wrote:
The rates of heatstroke have been rising.

Did your source correct for the effect of population growth and the age distribution, which means that there are now more people around to be killed than 100 years ago -- and that more of them are old? It doesn't look like it.

Piffka wrote:
I am reading and repeating what seemingly well-respected scientists are saying... these are not simply my foregone conclusions.

Your earlier claim was: "Climatic change, particularly abrupt change, would be disastrous for most of us." This claim is contradicted by your own source, the book from the National Academy of Sciences. Perhaps you want to re-read the chapter about ecological and economical consequences to see for yourself.

Piffka wrote:
As to Kyoto, I have said and will keep saying... what else can our scientists come up with?

With the suggestion to do nothing to stop global warming, and invest the money saved into adapting to its consequences -- and I still believe that's the best suggestion we have.
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revel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 07:39 am
It would be interesting to know why the right wing conservatives are so against the very idea that there is a threat to our planet due to pollution and things like that.

For some I think it might have something to do with the Bible and the scripture saying that there will always be change of seasons and for the others it might be because it brings up environmental issues which affect plants and factories which affect the economy and for others it might simply be because environmental issues are thought to be lefty issues and so they are naturally against it and have a closed mind about at least looking into it. [Those are just my guesses and not meant to be taken as something I am claiming as factual.]

I don't know too much at all about this issue. I do know that while it is true that it still snows around here where I live the next day it is just as likely to be warm enough to go without a jacket in the winter and then rain like crazy the next causing flood like conditions.
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HofT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 07:48 am
Piffka and Revel - one criterion for "robustness" of mathematical models is feeding into them past known inputs and obtaining past known outputs. Look at the graph for temperatures in Greenland, for instance >

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/images/younger.jpg

> and consider that none of our current models can reproduce that result. You both know that no SUVs were around 12,000 years ago!

In that I concur with Thomas - questions on who funded the research and whether the modellers are conservatives are irrelevant. The point is "does the model meet this test?" If not, then its predictions must also be interpreted with caution.
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HofT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 07:52 am
There are many links to scientific studies posted on the site with the above graph >
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/story_paleo.html
> and at least the actual measurements of geological strata aren't in doubt by anybody.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 08:03 am
thomas et al

I don't have the competence nor the time to develop it as regards much of what is at issue here. But I'm pleased you are all having fun.

I do have some greater competence in understanding how public opinion is manipulated and molded. As I percieve that in play, I'll comment.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 08:09 am
revel wrote:
It would be interesting to know why the right wing conservatives are so against the very idea that there is a threat to our planet due to pollution and things like that.

I am not sure if you are addressing me as a right wing conservative, which isn't how I would characterize myself. But if you do, my answer would be that you are confusing cause and effect. The cause is that I happen to consider extensive government intervention unnecessary for keeping the Earth in its orbit, the sky from falling, the population from exploding, the free market from harming the general good, and the climate from heating up catastrophically. The effect is that sometimes, this causes others to label me as a conservative. Or more correctly, as a libertarian -- because I don't think we need more family values to prevent another occurrence of The Flood either.
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revel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 08:11 am
I probably should not have said anything in this topic as this is the last thing I would interested in studying, I doubt I could concentrate on it long enough to take any of it in. I have just wondered myself about it because it does seem as if the weather has been weirder than it was when I was growing up and have wondered why the issue is so partisanly divided.

I am personally good either way it comes down. Since I am a believing christian I figure that if the planet does destroy itself with our help maybe that is just how God decided to end the world. I know that is not rational or scientific or anything but not everything in life is explainable or knowable.

But as a general feeling, I do think that we have a responsiblity to the planet and I agree with the environmentalist that we should keep our air and water as clean as possible. I say that all the while using as much as energy as the next average person. :wink: But I do draw the line at driving big huge gas guzzling SUV's. I had one once and I found that they are simply too hard to drive and park, they are unsafe to drive because they are so top heavy and you feel as if you are going to tip over every time you turn the corner and it takes a fortune to fill it up with gas. I like my nice little Ford Torus much better all the way around.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 08:11 am
And I might comment now and again on the odds of libertarians protecting us from libertarians.
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HofT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 08:27 am
Speaking of models - today is my first day of starting to write a simulation model and I will be talking quasi-exclusively to computers for the next several days, maybe weeks.

The climate modellers have it easy in one respect: nature will not deliberately try to outwit us - once we figure out how it works it won't change its behavior. It's macro-world (unlike quantum world) and observing it doesn't affect it. In other models though you must simulate feedback loops depending on the possible actions of an opponent who is actively trying to oppose your aims, and that's the field I'm working in.

Wish me luck here!
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 08:38 am
Both may be impossible tasks Hellen.

In atmospheric simulations one is faced with the need to model locally unstable physical phenomena with numerical models that bring their own local instabilities - how does one distinguish between them? Moreover both dynamics can involve sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Remember that modern chaos theory started with a meteorologist, Lorenz.

In modelling an intelligent opponent in a non-linear game you are as well faced with ultimately intractable challenges and must, at some point, fix your model for the opponent's behavior.

Good luck!
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HofT
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 08:48 am
Thank you, G OB. I appreciate it.
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Piffka
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 Feb, 2005 10:12 am
Thomas wrote:
This included some serious misreporting by the Independent, a newspaper whose standing is comparable to the Washington Post's.

My point -- I think obvious enough -- was that the Independent and the Washington Post are both reputable newspapers, and that even reputable newspapers routinely misreport the scientific community's research results on global warming. .


Oh, I see. It's not obvious from those words, Thomas. I have no idea how you feel about the Independent, which I frequently read. If you thought they were reputable, then adding a single adjective would have made that clear.

Thomas wrote:
Piffka wrote:
<Peer-reviewed science from Battelle, ExxonMobil, Dupont Fluorcarbons, ESKOM (one of the world's largest electricity utilities and the national power company in South Africa), plus Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.>



That's a bold accusation. Would you care to provide evidence that the current state of climatology is significantly corrupted by industrial bribes?


I took those company names DIRECTLY from the latest IPCC workshop in Japan. <shrug> Weren't you the one who pointed me at IPCC? Frankly, I was surprised. I have to leave so I can't post further.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2005 08:35 am
good luck, helen

Quote:
Dramatic change in West Antarctic ice could produce 16ft rise in sea levels
By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor
02 February 2005


British scientists have discovered a new threat to the world which may be a result of global warming. Researchers from the Cambridge-based British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have discovered that a massive Antarctic ice sheet previously assumed to be stable may be starting to disintegrate, a conference on climate change heard yesterday. Its collapse would raise sea levels around the earth by more than 16 feet.

BAS staff are carrying out urgent measurements of the remote points in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) where they have found ice to be flowing into the sea at the enormous rate of 250 cubic kilometres a year, a discharge alone that is raising global sea levels by a fifth of a millimetre a year.

Professor Chris Rapley, the BAS director, told the conference at the UK Meteorological Office in Exeter, which was attended by scientists from all over the world, that their discovery had reactivated worries about the ice sheet's collapse.

Only four years ago, in the last report of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), worries that the ice sheet was disintegrating were firmly dismissed.

Professor Rapley said: "The last IPCC report characterised Antarctica as a slumbering giant in terms of climate change. I would say it is now an awakened giant. There is real concern."

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=606845
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spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Feb, 2005 08:57 am
Hey MG:-

Have you not checked that Mexican war book yet?
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