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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Jul, 2008 03:53 pm
The IPCC membership link I posted is alleged to be valid as of 2004. We can both guess what happened after that--especially in 2007.

The temperature anomalies for the sample period 1998 thru 2008, listed below in columns 1 and 2, are relative to the 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature of 13.9°C or 57°F.

None of these anomalies are greater than 0.615 °C or 1.11°F. Consequently, the highest average combined land and ocean annual temperature for the period 1998 thru 2008 is equal to 14.515°C or 58.127°F


Column 1 Year for
the years 1998 thru June 2008

Column 2 Annual Average Global Temperature from cru.uea.ac.uk
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt

Column 3 Annual Average Global Temperature from data.giss.nasa.gov
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.txt

Column 4 January Annual Atmospheric CO2 PPM from ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt

Yearly Averages:
Col.1 Col.2 Col.3 Col.4
1998 0.546 0.535 364.77

1999 0.296 0.327 367.76

2000 0.270 0.331 368.81

2001 0.409 0.479 370.19

2002 0.464 0.558 372.14

2003 0.473 0.493 374.83

2004 0.447 0.485 376.85

2005 0.482 0.614 378.16

2006 0.422 0.538 381.13

2007 0.403 0.563 382.67

2008 0.256 0.343 385.12

Please note from the above sample that the January Annual CO2 PPMs are increased annually, 1998-2008, while the Annual Average Global Temperatures frequently oscillate over the same period. Consequently, it is clear that annual global temperature does not correlate with Atmospheric CO2 PPM. Since they do not correlate, the allegation that atmospheric CO2 causes earth warming cannot be scientifically supported. Even if they did correlate, that alone would be insufficient evidence to support the claim that either one causes the other.[/quote]
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Jul, 2008 11:00 pm
I believe the wind farm near Sweetwater TX is the largest in Texas. It is the one we discussed awhile back that is being utilized by Houston. And these 21 or so mega turbines have been fairly recently installed. From my e-mail tonight is this link to a fascinating slide show that links into a video showing how very complex these big wind turbines are. If any of you haven't seen one of these up close, it is really interesting:

WIND TURBINE SLIDE SHOW - SWEETWATER TX

I had to use the arrows to click through the still pictures until I reached the video section.

http://media.collegepublisher.com/media/paper410/stills/u38m7pmh.jpg

These stretch as far as the eye can see. T Boone Pickens plans to construct thousands upon thousands of them across TX - "Don't think he's going green," he says, "There's a lot of money to be made with these."


http://media.collegepublisher.com/media/paper410/stills/glx18g7h.jpg
This shows just how huge the the biggest of these things are. I read I think 250' tall.
0 Replies
 
username
 
  1  
Reply Sat 19 Jul, 2008 08:44 am
Forget CO2. The arguments are moot. These folks prove anthropogenic global warming is real. If you feel any inclination to listen to a seriously hot young group that raises temperatures by oh, I'd say, at least 15 degrees Celsius (last night was one of the steamiest I've ever seen in the room they played in), I highly recommend Crooked Still--somewhere in the intersection of bluegrass-newgrass, hot Irish sessiun music, improvisatory brilliance, Dr. Greg List-MIT doctor of molecular biology and Bruce Springsteen's banjo player (yes, he has one), Aoife O'Donovan, who can sing the birds down from the trees, and national fiddle champions, plus Celtic cello. Opinions on science may differ. Music is universal.

MP3s to listen to and free downloads at www.myspace.com/crookedstill
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 19 Jul, 2008 05:13 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
These stretch as far as the eye can see. T Boone Pickens plans to construct thousands upon thousands of them across TX - "Don't think he's going green," he says, "There's a lot of money to be made with these."


No ****, Sherlock.
0 Replies
 
hamburger
 
  1  
Reply Sat 19 Jul, 2008 06:22 pm
SIEMENS , one of the largest german engineering companies with extensive experience in both the design and construction of wind turbines will be opening a research center in colorado .


Quote:
June 4, 2008 6:15 AM PDT

Siemens to open Colo. wind turbine R&D center

Siemens Energy plans to open its first U.S. wind turbine research and development facility in Boulder, Colo.

The energy sector of the German company made the announcement on Tuesday in Houston, Texas, at Windpower 2008, the American Wind Energy Association's annual conference.

The center will concentrate on everything from designing better wind turbine components such as aerodynamic blades to conducting atmospheric-science research.

http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/bto/20080604/Siemens_medium_380x274.jpg

The strongest wind turbine Siemens currently makes has a capacity of 3.6 megawatts, according to the company. The one being used in Colorado will have a 2.3-megawatt capacity.

(Credit: Siemens)

As part of the plan, Siemens Energy will collaborate with the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) to install a Siemens 2.3-megawatt (MW) wind turbine at the National Wind Technology Center located just outside of Boulder.

"The creation of these green jobs is good for our economy and our communities and will help set us on a path of greater energy independence," Colorado Governor Bill Ritter said in a statement.

The Siemens R&D center, however, will create only about "12 to 15 green-collar positions in the first year," with a total of 50 new jobs in Colorado by 2013, according to Siemens' own estimates. And those jobs may not be what many economic reports predict could supplant lost jobs for blue-collar professionals.

Most of the employees of the new Siemens facility will be "new hires with a Ph.D. or master's degree in the desired disciplines," according to the Siemens announcement.

Siemens already has wind turbine R&D centers in Copenhagen, Denmark; Aachen, Germany; Delft, the Netherlands; and Keele, United Kingdom. The U.S. facility will share gained wind technology knowledge with those facilities.

The announcement follows news that increased costs in materials, coupled with engineering challenges, are hindering Europe's push to use more renewable sources like wind energy by 2020, according to a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates.



source :
SIEMENS

Quote:
Siemens Energy and Automation helps customers in the industrial, manufacturing and construction sectors succeed by providing complete electrical, engineering and automation solutions. Through a commitment to innovative engineering that goes back more than 150 years, Siemens serves the world's largest and most respected companies through integrated solutions, software, hardware and services..
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 19 Jul, 2008 09:21 pm
So what happens when the wind quits blowing? I am enthusiastic about wind energy, but even in Denmark where they are blessed with the winds almost constantly blowing off the North Sea, wind provides only about 1/3 of their electrical power, I think. That is what it was a couple years ago, I did not look it up now. Which is large, but from what I have read, that is about the limit that can be achieved until a suitable storage system can be perfected for when the winds quit blowing, and to accomodate wind speed fluctuations, etc.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 20 Jul, 2008 01:15 am
okie wrote:
So what happens when the wind quits blowing? I am enthusiastic about wind energy, but even in Denmark where they are blessed with the winds almost constantly blowing off the North Sea, wind provides only about 1/3 of their electrical power, I think. That is what it was a couple years ago, I did not look it up now. Which is large, but from what I have read, that is about the limit that can be achieved until a suitable storage system can be perfected for when the winds quit blowing, and to accomodate wind speed fluctuations, etc.


In Denmark, wind power never reached more than the nearly 20% of electric power (consumption) than last year.

If the wind is not blowing ... well, we use (better: the try to use it) a 'demand side management' with electricity from wind as well.
(The problem now isn't that there's too less wind but too much.)

That will take some time until it really works.


However, wind energy never can't be a single or even main elecricity source. (Sailing ships and balloons, for instance, don't have punctual time tables :wink: )




From an opinion in today's WaPo: The Answer's in the Wind -- and Sun:
Quote:
Today, wind energy is economic at about 7 cents per kilowatt hour, and that is without factoring in production tax credits. A few years ago, that cost was 15 to 20 cents. Compare the 7 cents for wind energy with the 12 cents per kilowatt hour required to build a gas-fired power plant, and you can see why there is a veritable land rush to harness wind energy.

[The writer is chief executive of Loews Corp., which has interests in Diamond Offshore drilling; Boardwalk Pipelines, an interstate natural gas pipeline company; and HighMount Exploration and Production, which drills for natural gas.]
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 20 Jul, 2008 07:02 pm
Drill in ANWR now, and cut the malarkey about "anthropogenic global warming." The globe has warmed on average less than 0.615 degrees Celsius (1.11 degrees Fahrenheit) 1975 - 2005, and thereafter it has cooled.

That whole "anthropogenic global warming" hysteria is "much ado about nothing."

THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS

Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

173
Award winning Chief Meteorologist James Spann of Alabama ABC TV affiliate declared that he does "not know of a single TV meteorologist who buys into the man-made global warming hype." "I have been in operational meteorology since 1978, and I know dozens and dozens of broadcast meteorologists all over the country," Spann, who holds the highest level of certification from the American Meteorological Society, wrote in a January 18, 2007 blog post. "I do not know of a single TV meteorologist who buys into the man-made global warming hype. I know there must be a few out there, but I can't find them," Spann added. "Billions of dollars of grant money is flowing into the pockets of those on the man-made global warming bandwagon. No man-made global warming, the money dries up. This is big money, make no mistake about it. Always follow the money trail and it tells a story... Nothing wrong with making money at all, but when money becomes the motivation for a scientific conclusion, then we have a problem. For many, global warming is a big cash grab," Spann said. "[The climate] will always change, and the warming in the last 10 years is not much difference than the warming we saw in the 1930s and other decades. And, lets not forget we are at the end of the ice age in which ice covered most of North America and Northern Europe," he noted.


Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

174
Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of Space Research for the Pulkovo Observatory in Russia, pointed to global warming on Mars and the melting ice cap on the red planet as more evidence that the sun was a key driver of climate change. "Mars has global warming, but without a greenhouse and without the participation of Martians," Abdussamatov said in an interview on January 26, 2007 with Canada's National Post. "These parallel global warmings -- observed simultaneously on Mars and on Earth -- can only be a straight-line consequence of the effect of the one same factor: a long-time change in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov explained. "It is no secret that increased solar irradiance warms Earth's oceans, which then triggers the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. So the common view that man's industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect relations," Abdussamatov added. A predicted decline in solar irradiance is going to lead to global cooling by 2015 and "will inevitably lead to a deep freeze around 2055-60," according to Abdussamatov. Abdussamatov was also featured in a February 28, 2007 article in National Geographic titled "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says," where he reiterated his scientific findings that "man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance."
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 20 Jul, 2008 10:13 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
okie wrote:
So what happens when the wind quits blowing? I am enthusiastic about wind energy, but even in Denmark where they are blessed with the winds almost constantly blowing off the North Sea, wind provides only about 1/3 of their electrical power, I think. That is what it was a couple years ago, I did not look it up now. Which is large, but from what I have read, that is about the limit that can be achieved until a suitable storage system can be perfected for when the winds quit blowing, and to accomodate wind speed fluctuations, etc.


In Denmark, wind power never reached more than the nearly 20% of electric power (consumption) than last year.

If the wind is not blowing ... well, we use (better: the try to use it) a 'demand side management' with electricity from wind as well.
(The problem now isn't that there's too less wind but too much.)

That will take some time until it really works.


However, wind energy never can't be a single or even main elecricity source. (Sailing ships and balloons, for instance, don't have punctual time tables :wink: )




From an opinion in today's WaPo: The Answer's in the Wind -- and Sun:
Quote:
Today, wind energy is economic at about 7 cents per kilowatt hour, and that is without factoring in production tax credits. A few years ago, that cost was 15 to 20 cents. Compare the 7 cents for wind energy with the 12 cents per kilowatt hour required to build a gas-fired power plant, and you can see why there is a veritable land rush to harness wind energy.

[The writer is chief executive of Loews Corp., which has interests in Diamond Offshore drilling; Boardwalk Pipelines, an interstate natural gas pipeline company; and HighMount Exploration and Production, which drills for natural gas.]


Walter, the big breakthrough needed is a suitable MET (massive energy storage) to use with the solar and wind. Without a way to store it, it is going to be tough to ever bring these energy sources to a dominant contribution to the mix.

http://solveclimate.com/blog/20080414/big-missing-piece-wind-solar-puzzle
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=abv9kUMdZueY&refer=home

The Big Missing Piece to the Wind-Solar Puzzle Is...
A massive energy storage system that can guarantee uninterrupted power delivery.

Meaning: clean electricity all the time, even when the winds aren't blowing and the sun isn't shining.

And now there's a battery unit being produced in Japan that claims it can provide just that.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 12:52 am
Compressed Air Energy Storage isn't THE solution - that's what we know already.

Might well be that we'll get a system which is as productive as the pumped-storage hydroelectricity some time.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 11:53 am
Next question: Is T Boone Pickens doing this to reduce America's dependency oil imports? Or is he doing this as his latest project to enrich the fortune of T Boone Pickens?

Photo of a small part of the installations in Nolan CO TX:

http://www.fotosearch.com/comp/UPC/UPC004/wind-turbines-rural_~pss46002.jpg

How many scenes like this across the country will be necessary to make a huge dent in oil imports? Would you want to live in a sea of these? To have these between you and your view of the hills or mountains or a grand vista? To have these between you and your view of the ocean?

I am reading accounts where homes near wind turbines are not selling because of the turbines.

I'm not wanting to throw cold water on reducing our dependence of foreign imports nor am I opposed to development of wind power. But I think it is reasonable to ask whether reducing real estate values and/or enjoyment of aesthetic beauty of our great country should not be part of the mix in the discussion?

There's no disputing that wind power is off and running and Pickens intends to be a part of that.

0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 12:07 pm
I think that they are absolutely beautiful; I would be proud to live near a wind generation farm, and in fact cycle past one pretty often here in CA.

Quote:
But I think it is reasonable to ask whether reducing real estate values and/or enjoyment of aesthetic beauty of our great country should not be part of the mix in the discussion?


Laughing

I wonder how anyone could think that aesthetics would rank higher on the scale then, say, affordability and cleanliness. I would also be interested to see the articles saying that homes aren't selling near wind plants - and specifically differentiating from the general housing slowdown.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 12:15 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
I am reading accounts where homes near wind turbines are not selling because of the turbines.


We've building regulations here: depending on the number of turbines, those only can be constructed in a distance of 300 m (one) up to 3,000 m (more than 50) to the next houses.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 01:49 pm
The fact is that the aesthetic question really IS an issue in many areas with respect to wind generation. Consider for example the truly grotesque hypocrisy of Teddy Kennedy and his supporters in Massachusetts who successfully prevented the construction of an otherwise very promising off shore wind farm near Cape Cod on exactly that basis.

If the object of Cyclo's aesthetic admiration is the large (and failry old) wind farm near the Altamont pass, east of Livermore, then I disagree. It is an ugly mess of mostly inoperable old 500KW turbines: I have never seen more than about 1/3rd of them in operation at once. (Newer plants are likely to be better with fewer, but larger and more reliable, wind turbines.)

However I do believe wind power is likely to be an important COMPONENT of the needed solution. The fact that the wind doesn't blow all the time is a limitation, but certainly is not a reason not to use it. Today power generators use their nuclear and coal fired plants to provide the base load for their customers and their gas turbine plants, which are easy and cheap to start up and shut down, to meet peak power demands in the morning and early evening. Learning to use (say) a coal-fired plant as an economic way to meet peak power demands or to fill in gaps in wind power production is a completely solvable engineering problem: we don't do it now, but we could easily do so if necessary. Moreover, whether your motivation is environmental or related to economic considerations like the massive transfers of wealth increasingly required to fund our petroleum imports, the fact is that it truly is becoming necessary for us to do things differently.

I believe the essential requirement for our needed new energy sourcing is that it be cheap. If you have cheap, abundant energy sources then you can solve all the related problems, whether they be environmental, economic, aesthetic, or even things like fresh water availability. If you don't have cheap energy, then you can't do anything.

If we can find the wisdom to avoid foolish acts of government intervention involving mandated production quots, direct subsidies, and the like, then I am confident that we will soon have competitive, relatively cheap wind power. The worst thing we can do for wind power is to use government mandates to force its use or government subsidies to hide its real cost and destroy the incentive for beneficial innovation.

I am skeptical of some of the data in Walter's quoted piece above -- it illustrates some of the deception that is too often attendant to some of these statistics. Wind energy today really costs far more than 7 cents per KWH, and gas turbine power costs less than 12 cents per KWH. Too often one finds that the depreciated costs of construction are included iin the quoted price for one source, but not the other, and that hidden government subsidies are conveniently ignored --- as is the case in this example.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 02:01 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
I am reading accounts where homes near wind turbines are not selling because of the turbines.


We've building regulations here: depending on the number of turbines, those only can be constructed in a distance of 300 m (one) up to 3,000 m (more than 50) to the next houses.


Well Walter, we have building regulations here as well. I believe the salient fact is that people in both the United States and Germany don't like to live in close proximity to either wind farms or nuclear power plants.

Using your data for a minimum 3,000M separation from houses for 50 or more turbine wind farms, that means in our terms a nearly 2 mile separation from a wind plant that produces as little as 250MW at peak hours. We (and you) can do as well as that with a nuclear plant that produces almost ten times as much power - on a continuous basis.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 02:03 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
I am reading accounts where homes near wind turbines are not selling because of the turbines.


We've building regulations here: depending on the number of turbines, those only can be constructed in a distance of 300 m (one) up to 3,000 m (more than 50) to the next houses.


Well Walter, we have building regulations here as well. I believe the salient fact is that people in both the United States and Germany don't like to live in close proximity to either wind farms or nuclear power plants.

Using your data for a minimum 3,000M separation from houses for 50 or more turbine wind farms, that means in our terms a nearly 2 mile separation from a wind plant that produces as little as 250MW at peak hours. We (and you) can do as well as that with a nuclear plant that produces almost ten times as much power - on a continuous basis.


Why not do both Smile

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 02:14 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Why not do both Smile

Cycloptichorn


Oh, I fully agree with that. Indeed, I believe we WILL do both. (meanwhile the poor Germans are contemplating wiping out all the gains they have made with wind power as well as all the further gains expected in the next decade or two by the forced destruction of their nuclear power establishment, which today is about twice the realtive size as ours.)
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 02:15 pm
Is France still going strong with theirs?

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 02:18 pm
Yes, and still growing. I believe they are currently up to about 78% of total electrical power production from nuclear. This is an obviously sensible option for them, and it appears to enjoy widespread public support. The French borrowed some very good basic reactor designs developed here, and organized their design, construction and operation in a much more systematic way than we did, achieving very good results in the process.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Jul, 2008 02:21 pm
Should be a model for our nation.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
 

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