71
   

Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 May, 2008 12:43 pm
And you are using a trick to try to divert where this entire conversation started.

High Seas posted a graph that showed percentage of typhoons making land fall and claimed it showed storms were not stronger. I pointed out that percent making land says nothing about storm strength.

Then you presented a graph of deaths from all natural disasters as if it showed only wind storms.

Face it. Your claim and High Seas claims are the ones that are based in la la land. I only pointed it out. Then when confronted you accuse me of tricks.

Quote:
That's why I posted my list of deadliest hurricane to show you that claiming technology is of no help in the number of hurricane deaths is pure nonsense.
Your list doesn't prove technology has had any effect on deaths. And you guys want to whine about the way Gore misuses stastics and numbers? You are worse. If technology has prevented deaths then it would falsify any claim that deaths are a measure of storm strength. You have defeated your own argument.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 May, 2008 01:40 pm
I am unable to discern a definite increasing trend in the deadliness of hurricanes that correlates with the increasing trend of the density of CO2 in the atmosphere since 1281.

MiniTax's list of hurricanes (alias, cyclones, typhoons) is resorted below according to the year of occurrence:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/deadlyworld.asp

9. Cyclone 02B, Bangladesh 1991 Bay of Bengal 140,000
21. Devi Taluk, SE India 1977 Bay of Bengal 20,000
8. Super Typhoon Nina, China 1975 West Pacific 171,000
1. Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh 1970 Bay of Bengal 550,000
16. Bengal Cyclone, Calcutta, India 1942 Bay of Bengal 40,000
13. Swatlow, China 1922 West Pacific 60,000
7. Chittagong, Bangladesh 1897 Bay of Bengal 175,000
10. Great Bombay Cyclone, India 1882 Arabian Sea 100,000
3. Haiphong Typhoon, Vietnam 1881 West Pacific 300,000
6. Great Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh 1876 Bay of Bengal 200,000
12. Calcutta, India 1864 Bay of Bengal 60,000
17. Canton, China 1862 West Pacific 37,000
3. Coringa, India 1839 Bay of Bengal 300,000
19. Barisal, Bangladesh 1831 Bay of Bengal 22,000
14. Barisal, Bangladesh 1822 Bay of Bengal 50,000
21. Great Coringa Cyclone, India 1789 Bay of Bengal 20,000
19. Great Hurricane, Lesser Antilles Islands 1780 Atlantic 22,000
18. Backerganj (Barisal), Bangladesh 1767 Bay of Bengal 30,000
2. Hooghly River Cyclone, India and Bangladesh 1737 Bay of Bengal 350,000
15. Sunderbans coast, Bangladesh 1699 Bay of Bengal 50,000
5. Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh 1584 Bay of Bengal 200,000
11. Hakata Bay Typhoon, Japan 1281 West Pacific 65,000
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 May, 2008 03:31 pm
Increased deaths and adaptation to a changing environment.
da bears
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 May, 2008 03:34 pm
"Scientists have [...] found evidence..."
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 May, 2008 03:39 pm


Quote:
Is Global Warming Killing the Polar Bears?
By JIM CARLTON
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
December 14, 2005


Quote:
HomeNewsUK NewsSHOPMy ProfileSitemapFrom The Sunday Times December 18, 2005
Polar bears drown as ice shelf melts


Those 2005 findings have been proven false. The Polar Bear population has actually been steadily increasing since 1975.
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 May, 2008 03:47 pm
parados wrote:
Your list doesn't prove technology has had any effect on deaths.
Yes it does. The deadliest hurricanes are in the distant past when demography was much lower and not now. Besides they occured always in the poorest and most technologically backward countries.
If all that don't show technology improves better survival, that would mean the above list proves there is much less and weaker hurricanes over the past decades, which I doubt you'll accept.

parados wrote:
And you guys want to whine about the way Gore misuses stastics and numbers? You are worse. If technology has prevented deaths then it would falsify any claim that deaths are a measure of storm strength. You have defeated your own argument.

You're correct. But it's not a reason to insult me like that by comparing my statistics to Gore's Wink
So I would say deaths are easier but no better measure of storm strength than material damage because technology strongly influences death numbers. With caveats that it's only true in countries which HAVE made progress in technology (most 2008s' Burmese don't have better technology than 1900's Americans).
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 14 May, 2008 04:00 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb

As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.


THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

106.
Astrophysicist Dr. Howard Greyber, a Fellow Royal Astronomical Society and member of the International Astronomical Union, called warming fears "unwarranted hysteria" and chastised a newspaper columnist's views on global warming. "When [columnist] Thomas Friedman touts carbon dioxide as the cause of global warming in his column, I respond as a physicist that he cannot comprehend that it is still not proven that carbon dioxide emissions actually are causing global warming. Correlation does not prove Causation," Greyber wrote on September 20, 2007 in the International Herald Tribune. "The Earth's climate changes all the time. Did carbon dioxide emissions cause the Medieval Warm Period, when Vikings raised crops on Greenland's coast? What caused the cold climate from 1700 to 1850? In 1975, articles were published predicting we were entering a New Ice Age. Reputable scientists oppose this unwarranted alarmist hysteria," he noted. "Understanding climate change is an extremely difficult scientific problem. Giant computers generating climate models cannot be trusted so far. As any computer person knows, garbage in means garbage out. If research suggests subtle variations in our Sun's radiation reaching Earth are causing global climate change, what would Friedman recommend?" Greyber concluded.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 06:05 am
Well minitax..
Since this conversation started with the claim that Gore was wrong because there is evidence of an decrease in storm strength from previous decades. This was accompanied with a graph showing percent of storms that make landfall.

So..
Which of the following is true?
1. You agree that fewer storms making landfall shows decreased strength and were defending it
2. You pulled my statement out of context to divert the conversation from the mistatement about landfall showing strength.

You have also failed to address clearly how your graph which consists of ALL natural disasters since 1900 in any way can be made to read as "storms only" or as "storms before 1900." When ican pulled out storms since 1900 it shows that many of those with with large death totals occurred after 1975. You then pulled a bait and switch by bringing in storms PRIOR to 1900 and said ican was wrong. You also changed from damage to death claiming we SHOULD use death.



So to recap. (Feel free to disagree with any of the following but tell us why you disagree.)

The percent of storms making landfall doesn't show the strength of the storms
Natural disaster deaths can't be used as if it show storms only.
Deaths prior to 1900 can't be used to support claims originally made about about those after 1900.
Deaths can't really be equated to strength of storm since many strong storms don't hit heavily populated areas. (Data from the last 30 years proves that. In the Atlantic region, deaths are not related to the number of strong storms.)
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 07:28 am
Lets see..
US deaths by tropical storms.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/Table2.htm

If you look at table 2 you will see something interesting.
A category 1 hurricane in 1972 had more deaths than a cat4 in 1954. (I guess technology must be better in 1954.)

But perhaps the most interesting is that from 1900-2000 on the list of deaths, the 30th worst year was 1994, a year in which there were no hurricanes to make landfall.

Then we can look at this..
http://www.iso.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1034
The insurance industry adjusts for inflation, population growth AND changes in the amount of property per person up to 1999.

Quote:

So, we clearly have a measure of damage that adjusts for inflation.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 08:27 am
Quote:
False prophets of doom
Environmentalists would prefer that we forget these predictions
WALTER WILLIAMS

Now that another Earth Day has come and gone, let's look at some environmentalist predictions that they would prefer we forget.

At the first Earth Day celebration, in 1969, environmentalist Nigel Calder warned, "The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind." C.C. Wallen of the World Meteorological Organization said, "The cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed."

In 1968, Paul Ehrlich, Vice President Gore's hero and mentor, predicted there would be a major food shortage in the U.S. and "in the 1970s ... hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death." Ehrlich said 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980 and 1989, and by 1999 the U.S. population would have declined to 22.6 million. Ehrlich's predictions about England were gloomier: "If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000."

World `likely to be ruined' by 2000

In 1972, a report was written for the Club of Rome warning the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury and silver by 1985, tin by 1987 and petroleum, copper, lead and natural gas by 1992. Gordon Taylor, in his 1970 work "The Doomsday Book," said Americans were using 50 percent of the world's resources and "by 2000 they [Americans] will, if permitted, be using all of them." In 1975, the Environmental Fund took out full-page ads warning, "The World as we know it will likely be ruined by the year 2000."Harvard University biologist George Wald in 1970 warned, "... civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind." That was the same year that Sen. Gaylord Nelson warned, in Look Magazine, that by 1995 "... somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct."

It's not just latter-day doomsayers who have been wrong; doomsayers have always been wrong. In 1885, the U.S. Geological Survey announced there was "little or no chance" of oil being discovered in California, and a few years later they said the same about Kansas and Texas. In 1939, the U.S. Department of the Interior said American oil supplies would last only another 13 years. In 1949, the Secretary of the Interior said the end of U.S. oil supplies was in sight. Having learned nothing from its earlier erroneous claims, in 1974 the U.S. Geological Survey advised us that the U.S. had only a 10-year supply of natural gas. According to the American Gas Association, there's a 1,000 to 2,500 year supply.

Here are my questions: In 1970, when environmentalists were making predictions of manmade global cooling and the threat of an ice age and millions of Americans starving to death, what kind of government policy should we have undertaken to prevent such a calamity?

When Ehrlich predicted that England would not exist in the year 2000, what steps should the British Parliament have taken in 1970 to prevent such a dire outcome?

In 1939, when the U.S. Department of the Interior warned that we only had oil supplies for another 13 years, what actions should President Roosevelt have taken?

Why believe them this time?

Finally, what makes us think that environmental alarmism is any more correct now that they have switched their tune to manmade global warming?

A few facts: Over 95 percent of the greenhouse effect is the result of water vapor in Earth's atmosphere. Without the greenhouse effect, Earth's average temperature would be zero degrees Fahrenheit. Most climate change is a result of the orbital eccentricities of Earth and variations in the sun's output. And natural wetlands produce more greenhouse gas annually than all human sources combined.

0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 08:37 am
I posted that article a week ago today McG, but it is a good one and can stand a lot of repeating. (The AGW religionists pretty much ignored it then and will probably ignore it now. But the logic included in the piece does resonate with those still capable of thinking about this instead of knee jerk repeating of the mantra.)
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 09:32 am
and what mantra is that?
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 09:32 am
Yeah? Nuts. I get behind and don't have gumption of reading more then 1 page back.

I am glad it gets repeated though.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 12:01 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:
and what mantra is that?


The mild mantra that AGW is real.

The stronger mantra that AGW is real and can become serious and justifies regulating and/or confiscating freedoms from the developed world..

The religionists' mantra that AGW will kill us all unless we take drastic, even dranconian, measures now and it is primarily the USA's fault.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 01:32 pm
There also is the hysterical, religionist mantra that AGW will kill us all unless we take the dranconian, measure to shut down the USA.

Quote:
Gordon Taylor, in his 1970 work, "The Doomsday Book," said Americans were using 50 percent of the world's resources and "by 2000 they [Americans] will, if permitted, be using all of them."
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 06:07 pm
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=f80a6386-802a-23ad-40c8-3c63dc2d02cb

As of December 20, 2007, over 400 prominent scientists--not a minority of those scientists who have published their views on global warming--from more than two dozen countries voiced significant objections to major aspects of the alleged UN IPCC "consensus" on man-made global warming.


THE DISSENTS OF THE SCIENTIFIC DISSENTERS
Quote:

http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

107.
Astrophysicist Dr. Nir Shaviv, one of Israel's top, young, award-winning scientists of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, recanted his belief that man-made emissions were driving climate change. "Like many others, I was personally sure that CO2 is the bad culprit in the story of global warming. But after carefully digging into the evidence, I realized that things are far more complicated than the story sold to us by many climate scientists or the stories regurgitated by the media. In fact, there is much more than meets the eye," Shaviv said in a February 2, 2007 Canadian National Post article. According to Shaviv, the CO2 temperature link is only "incriminating circumstantial evidence." "Solar activity can explain a large part of the 20th-century global warming" and "it is unlikely that [the solar climate link] does not exist," Shaviv noted, pointing to the impact cosmic- rays have on the atmosphere. According to the National Post, Shaviv believes that even a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere by 2100 "will not dramatically increase the global temperature." "Even if we halved the CO2 output, and the CO2 increase by 2100 would be, say, a 50% increase relative to today instead of a doubled amount, the expected reduction in the rise of global temperature would be less than 0.5C. This is not significant," Shaviv explained. Shaviv also wrote on August 18, 2006 that a colleague of his believed that "CO2 should have a large effect on climate" so "he set out to reconstruct the phanerozoic temperature. He wanted to find the CO2 signature in the data, but since there was none, he slowly had to change his views." Shaviv believes there will be more scientists converting to man-made global warming skepticism as they discover the dearth of evidence. "I think this is common to many of the scientists who think like us (that is, that CO2 is a secondary climate driver). Each one of us was working in his or her own niche. While working there, each one of us realized that things just don't add up to support the AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) picture. So many had to change their views," he wrote.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 15 May, 2008 06:19 pm
YES OR NO QUESTIONS ABOUT HURRICANES DURING THE PERIOD 1900 TO 2005 WHEN THE DENSITY OF CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN INCREASING

1. Has the frequency of hurricanes per year been increasing?

2. Has the intensity of hurricanes been increasing?

3. Has the number of people killed by hurricanes per year been increasing?

4. Has the number of human casualties caused by hurricanes per year been increasing?

5. Has the damage caused by hurricanes per year been increasing?

6. Does anyone have persuasive evidence to support any of their YES answers--if any--to any of these questions?
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 May, 2008 04:17 am
Nir Shaviv only said man's economic activity in forcing climate change does not dominate at the moment but will do next century.

He's not a AGW denier.

Moreover he's a cheat

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2004/2004_Rahmstorf_etal.pdf
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 May, 2008 08:30 am
Steve 41oo wrote:
Nir Shaviv only said man's economic activity in forcing climate change does not dominate at the moment but will do next century.

He's not a AGW denier.

Moreover he's a cheat

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2004/2004_Rahmstorf_etal.pdf


Your source is 2004. Ican's source is 2007. You must have missed the part that Shaviv admits he is a convert after once being a kool-ade drinker. But after looking closely at ALL the evidence--somethng the AGW religionists refuse to do--he is now a skeptic. Most reputable scientists who are looking closely at the evidence and who do not stand to personally gain from an AGW crisis are joining the ranks of the skeptics.

Repeating Shaviv's words from Ican's post:
Quote:
"Like many others, I was personally sure that CO2 is the bad culprit in the story of global warming. But after carefully digging into the evidence, I realized that things are far more complicated than the story sold to us by many climate scientists or the stories regurgitated by the media.


Explain your statement that 'he is a cheat' please.
0 Replies
 
miniTAX
 
  1  
Reply Fri 16 May, 2008 10:26 am
Steve 41oo wrote:
and what mantra is that?

That one for example:
"the only habitable continent will be Antarctica by the end of the century if climate change is not controlled"

And that's not from simple rank & file AGW nuts, that's from ... Sir David King, GB Government's chief scientific adviser. http://forum-images.hardware.fr/images/perso/benny%20hill.gif
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

 
Copyright © 2024 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.1 seconds on 10/12/2024 at 02:19:36