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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Jan, 2008 07:44 am
Quote:

The Anomaly data (and not the Smoothed data) I posted were my evidence that the cooling actually began in 1999. In any case, my model is based directly on the Anomally data (column 2) and not the Smoothed data (column 3). One way Smoothing of data is achieved is by extending the period over which one computes averages. The periods over which the Anomaly data were averaged was a year. In general, as one increases the averaging period, the more the rate of increase or decrease of historic data is diminished.

Which is precisely why using single data points in a data progression should not be used to show a trend. You have to run a regression of some kind to see the trend. Your methodology was flawed as shown by the regression on the graph you later showed and further misinterpreted.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Jan, 2008 10:07 pm
The average global temperature for each year 1850 thru 2007 represents roughly 800 data points (i.e., 12 x 80 = 840) for each location around the globe at which such temperatures are measured. Since each year represents one complete orbit of the sun--all four seasons--for each measurement location, these temperature measurements provide an adequate basis for discovering the real cause of their ups and downs. I guess there are well over 1000 such locations around the world at which such temperatures are measured more than once per day.

Here again is the average global temperature history for each month 1850 thru 2007. This time, to aid discovery of what contribution humans are making to this history I've color coded temperature increases and decreases.

Red numbers indicate a year to year increase in global temperature.
Blue numbers indicate a year to year decrease in global temperature.
Quote:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature
Comma Separated Values

Global Temperature (Climatic Research Unit)


Year Anomaly Smoothed

(Column 1 Column 2 Column 3)

1850 -0.447 -0.362
1851 -0.292 -0.359
1852 -0.294 -0.358
1853 -0.337 -0.362
1854 -0.307 -0.368
1855 -0.321 -0.378
1856 -0.406 -0.388
1857 -0.503 -0.398
1858 -0.513 -0.406
1859 -0.349 -0.410
1860 -0.372 -0.411
1861 -0.412 -0.408
1862 -0.540 -0.401
1863 -0.315 -0.391
1864 -0.516 -0.379
1865 -0.297 -0.365
1866 -0.303 -0.352
1867 -0.334 -0.341
1868 -0.291 -0.332
1869 -0.313 -0.325
1870 -0.302 -0.322
1871 -0.344 -0.319
1872 -0.255 -0.315
1873 -0.331 -0.310
1874 -0.397 -0.300
1875 -0.418 -0.287
1876 -0.403 -0.273
1877 -0.091 -0.260
1878 +0.023 -0.250
1879 -0.265 -0.247
1880 -0.260 -0.251
1881 -0.242 -0.260
1882 -0.246 -0.273
1883 -0.298 -0.288
1884 -0.381 -0.302
1885 -0.362 -0.315
1886 -0.275 -0.327
1887 -0.387 -0.338
1888 -0.337 -0.349
1889 -0.192 -0.360
1890 -0.431 -0.371
1891 -0.378 -0.380
1892 -0.484 -0.385
1893 -0.505 -0.385
1894 -0.444 -0.379
1895 -0.420 -0.371
1896 -0.211 -0.361
1897 -0.243 -0.353
1898 -0.432 -0.351
1899 -0.314 -0.354
1900 -0.223 -0.364
1901 -0.302 -0.378
1902 -0.431 -0.396
1903 -0.509 -0.416
1904 -0.554 -0.435
1905 -0.412 -0.453
1906 -0.329 -0.469
1907 -0.507 -0.481
1908 -0.559 -0.489
1909 -0.564 -0.492
1910 -0.548 -0.489
1911 -0.581 -0.478
1912 -0.491 -0.463
1913 -0.489 -0.444
1914 -0.305 -0.425
1915 -0.213 -0.408
1916 -0.434 -0.393
1917 -0.506 -0.379
1918 -0.388 -0.368
1919 -0.331 -0.356
1920 -0.314 -0.346
1921 -0.261 -0.335
1922 -0.381 -0.323
1923 -0.347 -0.311
1924 -0.360 -0.298
1925 -0.274 -0.285
1926 -0.162 -0.272
1927 -0.254 -0.259
1928 -0.255 -0.246
1929 -0.376 -0.233
1930 -0.165 -0.220
1931 -0.124 -0.206
1932 -0.155 -0.190
1933 -0.297 -0.172
1934 -0.159 -0.152
1935 -0.184 -0.129
1936 -0.152 -0.104
1937 -0.034 -0.079
1938 +0.009 -0.056
1939 -0.001 -0.037
1940 +0.018 -0.024
1941 +0.077 -0.020
1942 -0.031 -0.024
1943 -0.028 -0.035
1944 +0.120 -0.054
1945 -0.007 -0.078
1946 -0.205 -0.103
1947 -0.197 -0.128
1948 -0.204 -0.148
1949 -0.211 -0.163
1950 -0.309 -0.172
1951 -0.169 -0.176
1952 -0.074 -0.176
1953 -0.027 -0.174
1954 -0.251 -0.169
1955 -0.281 -0.162
1956 -0.349 -0.151
1957 -0.073 -0.138
1958 -0.010 -0.125
1959 -0.072 -0.113
1960 -0.123 -0.106
1961 -0.023 -0.103
1962 -0.021 -0.107
1963 +0.002 -0.113
1964 -0.295 -0.119
1965 -0.216 -0.124
1966 -0.147 -0.126
1967 -0.149 -0.124
1968 -0.159 -0.120
1969 -0.010 -0.114
1970 -0.067 -0.108
1971 -0.190 -0.103
1972 -0.056 -0.100
1973 +0.077 -0.097
1974 -0.213 -0.091
1975 -0.170 -0.082
1976 -0.254 -0.068
1977 +0.019 -0.050
1978 -0.063 -0.028
1979 +0.049 -0.006
1980 +0.077 +0.015
1981 +0.120 +0.032
1982 +0.011 +0.046
1983 +0.177 +0.057
1984 -0.021 +0.068
1985 -0.038 +0.080
1986 +0.029 +0.094
1987 +0.179 +0.107
1988 +0.180 +0.122
1989 +0.103 +0.136
1990 +0.254 +0.149
1991 +0.212 +0.162
1992 +0.061 +0.177
1993 +0.105 +0.194
1994 +0.171 +0.215
1995 +0.275 +0.240
1996 +0.137 +0.267
1997 +0.351 +0.295
1998 +0.546 +0.323
1999 +0.296 +0.348
2000 +0.270 +0.371
2001 +0.409 +0.390
2002 +0.464 +0.405
2003 +0.473 +0.416
2004 +0.447 +0.423
2005 +0.482 +0.426
2006 +0.422 +0.426
2007 +0.403 +0.423
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jan, 2008 09:27 am
What does it prove to make the numbers red and blue other than to show there is no pattern year to year. It is no different than random. It is the random nature of the yearly temps which is why you can't pick out just a few years to show temperature.

Your argument is still full of ignorance. You only appear more and more ignorant the longer you make it.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 01:27 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png

Parados, your specious and bigoted arguments are irrelevant to the question of whether or not human activities are contributing more than a trivial amount to global temperature increases.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:01 pm
ican711nm wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png

Parados, your specious and bigoted arguments are irrelevant to the question of whether or not human activities are contributing more than a trivial amount to global temperature increases.


And your argument is relevant how?

I love how you start the discussion but when errors are pointed out in YOUR thinking suddenly the topic is specious. Rolling Eyes
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:21 pm
Ican,

Your question about human contributions was answered almost a month ago.
http://www.able2know.org/forums/viewtopic.php?p=3017882#3017882

Rather than responding to the answer was given to you that was given to you more than once, you have only repeated the question as if it was never answered. If you want to be relevant then go respond to the direct answer that was given earlier. If you can't respond to the direct answer then feel free to keep repeating your question while looking like a complete idiot.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:45 pm
parados wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png

Parados, your specious and bigoted arguments are irrelevant to the question of whether or not human activities are contributing more than a trivial amount to global temperature increases.


And your argument is relevant how?

...


Image of Global Temperature History

In order to examine long term causes of global temperature increases rationally, one must examine that temperature history closely, and not obscure detail pertinent to determining whether humans are the primary causiers of global warming and cooling. Averaging temperature history over natural periods like daily cycles (daytime and night time), yearly cycles (spring, summer, fall, winter), or even 11 year sunspot cycles is helpful for analyzing other than natural cycle causes of temperature variation. But arbitrarily limiting one's analysis to 5 year averages that do not relate to natural cycles is not helpful, because such averaging does not reveal how well temperature changes track with the history of CO2 (et al) atmospheric content changes.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 03:49 pm
I see. So you think limiting 157 years of daily temperature high/low readings to the average of 4 years is somehow a more accurate way to look at it compared to all the other ways you just mentioned. Rolling Eyes
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 04:00 pm
parados wrote:
I see. So you think limiting 157 years of daily temperature high/low readings to the average of 4 years is somehow a more accurate way to look at it compared to all the other ways you just mentioned. Rolling Eyes

4 years Question Rolling Eyes

How in the world did you conjure up that interpretation from what I posted?

I think the ways I previously mentioned are more rational and "more accurate way[s] to look at it compared to" the 5 year averaging you have repeatedly advocated.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 04:14 pm
ican711nm wrote:


I think the ways I previously mentioned are more rational and "more accurate way[s] to look at it compared to" the 5 year averaging you have repeatedly advocated.

What you "think" and what statistical analysis has shown to be true are 2 completely separate things. I'll stick with science. You are free to stick with what you "think" but don't expect anyone to take you seriously.
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 04:34 pm
BUMP x 2
Diest TKO wrote:

Direct question: What would the effect on climate be if all terrestrial and aquatic plant life were to die? I'm asking for a direct answer.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 05:17 pm
parados wrote:
ican711nm wrote:


I think the ways I previously mentioned are more rational and "more accurate way[s] to look at it compared to" the 5 year averaging you have repeatedly advocated.

What you "think" and what statistical analysis has shown to be true are 2 completely separate things. I'll stick with science. You are free to stick with what you "think" ...

What is it exactly that you think statistical analysis has shown to be true about whether or not humans have contributed more than a trivial amount to global warming?

All I've seen that statistical analysis has shown is that the CO2 (et al) content of the atmosphere has been increasing rapidly and relatively smoothly for about a 100 years, while global temperature has been increasing until recently at a slower rate with eratic increases and decreases for about 100 years.

Recognizing that "correlation is not cause", what is the correlation between global temperatures and the amount of CO2 (et al) in the atmosphere?

Please note, the percentage increase in average global temperature from 1911 to 1998, as measured on the Kelvin temperature scale, is:

100% x (288.706-287.579) / ((288.706+287.579)/2) = 1.127 / 288.1425 = 0.391%.

Also there has been a 0.143K temperature decrease from 1998 to 2007.

Year--Celsius-----Kelvin-------Fahrenheit
-----(-273.160)----000.000---(-459.688) <absolute zero or no suns at all
1878--15.023-----288.183------59.041
1911--14.419-----287.579------57.954
1961--14.977-----288.137------58.959
1990--15.254-----288.414------59.457
1998--15.546-----288.706------59.983
2007--15.403-----288.563------59.725
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 05:46 pm
Diest TKO wrote:
BUMP x 2
Diest TKO wrote:

Direct question: What would the effect on climate be if all terrestrial and aquatic plant life were to die? I'm asking for a direct answer.

T
K
O

Crying or Very sad until we die 'cause CO2 would increase and O2 would decrease.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 07:21 pm
SOME RELEVANT LINKS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png#file
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Sunspot-temperature-10000yr.svg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr-2.png#file
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Sunspot_Numbers.png
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 08:26 pm
ican711nm wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:
BUMP x 2
Diest TKO wrote:

Direct question: What would the effect on climate be if all terrestrial and aquatic plant life were to die? I'm asking for a direct answer.

T
K
O

Crying or Very sad until we die 'cause CO2 would increase and O2 would decrease.

I asked for the effect on the climate, human population was not one of the climate varibles you listed before in measuring climate.

Try again.
K
O
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 10:29 pm
Diest TKO wrote:
ican711nm wrote:
Diest TKO wrote:
BUMP x 2
Diest TKO wrote:

Direct question: What would the effect on climate be if all terrestrial and aquatic plant life were to die? I'm asking for a direct answer.

T
K
O

Crying or Very sad until we die 'cause CO2 would increase and O2 would decrease.

I asked for the effect on the climate, human population was not one of the climate varibles you listed before in measuring climate.

Try again.
K
O

:wink: The healthiness of the human population is really the only climate variable I truly care about even though I had not previously listed it a climate variable. But, ok, I'll go along with your gag:

CO2 would increase and O2 would decrease and temperature would /\/~\/\/~\/\/\/~\/ ...
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 11:02 pm
How would the terrain/sea floor be effected with no plants.?

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jan, 2008 11:05 pm
As for...
ican711nm wrote:
CO2 would increase and O2 would decrease and temperature would /\/~\/\/~\/\/\/~\/ ...

You science, is really super.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 12:56 pm
Diest TKO wrote:
How would the terrain/sea floor be effected with no plants.?

T
K
O

Answer your own irrelevant questions if you can.

You don't answer my relevant questions, so I answer them myself.

Your theoretical question is about a condition that, if it were to come about, no humans would survive to witness the climate consequences. Among rational folks, the only reason they are concerned about the real causes of global warming, is that they are concerned for whether or not humans need do something about those causes, if they can, in order to preserve or obtain tolerable or more pleasant human lives.

I'm tempted to ask you whether or not you think global warming will cause the terrain/sea floor to eventually have no plants, and why do you think so. But I won't bother, since you rarely (if ever) answer my why questions.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 12:57 pm
Diest TKO wrote:
As for...
ican711nm wrote:
CO2 would increase and O2 would decrease and temperature would /\/~\/\/~\/\/\/~\/ ...

You science, is really super.

T
K
O

Your bigoted statements are really super.
0 Replies
 
 

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