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Global Warming...New Report...and it ain't happy news

 
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Sep, 2005 10:47 am
I think it was, McTag. The storms are either consistant, or at least, not inconsistant, with global warming.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Sep, 2005 07:00 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
It's never the right time for discussing the effects of global warming, don't you realize that yet?

Cycloptichorn


The globe called Sun is warming.

The globe called Earth is warming! It's been doing that since the last major ice age, about 10,000 years ago.

The globe called Mars is warming; its icecaps are melting.

It's all been happening on George W. Bush's watch and he hasn't done a damn thing to stop it! Mad

It's time someone did do something about it. Cool
0 Replies
 
satt fs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Sep, 2005 09:25 pm
But there must be an explanation about why storms are becoming more powerful. "Global warming" may not be a single cause of it.
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Sep, 2005 09:29 pm
Maybe not. What's another hypothesis?
0 Replies
 
satt fs
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Sep, 2005 09:35 pm
Actually I myself could ask a question about it..
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Sep, 2005 01:50 am
Front Page Headline of todays Independent

Published: 23 September 2005

first paragraph reads

"Super-powerful hurricanes now hitting the United States are the "smoking gun" of global warming, one of Britain's leading scientists believes. The growing violence of storms such as Katrina, which wrecked New Orleans, and Rita, now threatening Texas, is very probably caused by climate change, said Sir John Lawton, chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution. Hurricanes were getting more intense, just as computer models predicted they would, because of the rising temperature of the sea, he said. "The increased intensity of these kinds of extreme storms is very likely to be due to global warming.""
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Sep, 2005 05:26 am
Well, that doesn't seem to bother some Americans at all - as George said on the "Bush supporter thread" - where I additionally mentioned the latest report in 'Science':

georgeob1 wrote:
I am not persuaded. These folks are certainly free to say what they wish and even to regulate the lives of their own citizens. However I am not interested in their unsolicited advice nor do I wish to see them exercise any influence over my life or the policies of my country.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Sep, 2005 06:04 am
yes that sounds like george. But think about what he said here:

georgeob1 wrote:
I am not persuaded. These folks are certainly free to say what they wish and even to regulate the lives of their own citizens. However I am not interested in their unsolicited advice nor do I wish to see them exercise any influence over my life or the policies of my country.



"not persuaded." Fair enough

"these folks"....presumably non American scientists?

"say what they wish" . No. What they say is subject to rigorous analysis. They have to justify what they say. They would not last 2 minutes if they just "said what they wish"

regulate others' lives? No. They can influence not regulate.

Unsolicited advice. Who set up the IPCC?

excercise influence? No again, foreign governments might exert influence with the American government, climatologists talk to other climatologists.

...........................................

The underlying assumption with this typical American reasoning is that the United States is a fiercely independent sovereign state, not part of some conglomerate called World.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Sep, 2005 07:35 am
We might as well just consider that george's commentary on these matters stand as a voice for the American Petro Chemical companies (and all the connected/associated business interests and the supporting politcal/Public Relations interests).

George, we've all noticed, uses 'special interests' as the typical modern american rightwing derogation. That is, his usage of the derogation includes, for example, all women, all folks who do not share his notions of proper christian theology, folks who don't share the burden of being white, etc. The Petro Chemical Industry, however, isn't a 'special interest', it is something else, perhaps a natural and infallible thing growing inevitably out of god's thigh, like the pope.

I've been a bit sick for a while and I'm losing patience with the blind ideological and partisan stupidness that george, who I consider a friend, so commonly voices, in chorus with too many others.

These guys aren't going to learn - they've lost that sort of resiliency. Reality is going to have to crush them, and even then, that won't do the trick for many. A further blow from foreign political agency or from some environmental event and it will all just be further proof that homos and liberalism have seeped too deeply into Pure God-Blessed Americanism.

To the rest of us, this just looks like absolute lunancy. Which is precisely what it is.

The Texas Republican Party has as part of its standing platform the statement that global warming is false. What the fukk is that item doing in there, in a state political party platform?! Not too difficult to discern if you just look at the personal and organizational ties between that party and that industry.
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Sep, 2005 07:45 am
This was discussed by knowledgeable people here on the radio this morning. People who read the latest scientific papers.

It is now thought that global warming may affect the intensity of the biggest tropical storms. It is not thought to affect the frequency of the storms.
Evidence for both, however, is as yet insufficient.

Here's another, unrelated, topic: I noticed that in the last storm aftermath pictures of Biloxi, everything was smashed flat and removed by the wind and water except for a large brick-built church building.
Are construction standards sufficient? Should buildings on the gulf coast be made heavier and stronger?
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Sep, 2005 08:37 am
hi McT

Yes, storm intensity increase coming as a result of warmer ocean water is the relevant matter it seems.

As to the other issue, it might just be cheaper to make all buildings churches then god wouldn't dare.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Sep, 2005 10:41 am
Well I was a bit testy with Walter. Moreover I'll admit to a little impatience with the enduring taste of Brits and other Europeans for the Medieval honorifics with which they lace the enduring hierarchy of their social structures.

However, with respect to the hurricanes, I am on firm ground and they are not.

There are so many factors that have made meaningful contributions to the recent sad events, and all of them are so vastly more significant than the "probability that global warming contributed to the intensity of the storms", that reaching down into such relatively trivial matters in the midst of this all too real himan disaster, obviously to make a rather spiteful political point, is indeed very offensive - offensive for him to say it; offensive for Walter to post it here; and offensive for Blatham to endorse it.

First there is the probabilistic factor: there are many super intense hurricanes, but most of them dissipate without a landfall, and most of those that do make a landfall hit unpopulated areas. Second there are the well-known thirty and twelve year cycles in the location, intensity, and frequency of these storms caused by large-scale cyclic shifts in oceanic currents. Third there is the probably unwise wholesale development of the shoreline property on the Gulf Coast, from Twxas to Florida that has occurred over the last thirty years. What just a few decades ago was a mostly empty coastline of pristine white beaches, wetlands, tidal backwaters, and southern forrest has become a near continuous city in an amazingly short tiome. Fourth there is the simple fact that we are emerging from a predictable twelve year period of ununsually low hurricane activity, with a particuylarly low incidence of powerful storms into one of equally predictable greater incidence and intensity. (Odd that no one suggested the recent low occurrance of hurricanes was evidence against global warming.) Fifth there is the obvious fact that the greatest damage was the result of inept urban planning and land use management by local government in Louisiana over an extended period of time.

There are other important factors as well - all vastly more likely and significant in the result than the possibility that global warming has contributed some infinitesmal increment to the power of this storm.

To single out this point, while ignoring all the others and them put it in the context of a political dispute, and one with such obvious cultural overtones is hardly the act of a distinguished scientist acting on principle.

My point and my distaste for the religious certainty of the slavish followers of contemporary correct poilitical "thought" both stand unaffected.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Sep, 2005 12:58 pm
[Boldface added by ican]
Quote:
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
(Redirected from History of hurricanes in the caribbean)
Since 1465, the islands of the Caribbean have experienced ample hurricane activity; either being directly hit or significantly brushed. The following is a history of hurricane activity in the Caribbean

1495 - Columbus encounters a hurricane near Hispaniola. He reported that “Nothing but the service of God or the Monarchy” would he permit himself exposure to such a storm again.
July 1515 - a powerful hurricane caused the death of many Indians in Puerto Rico.
October 4, 1526 - Hurricane hits Puerto Rico causing extreme damage.
October 4, 1527 - Hurricane causes substantial damage in Puerto Rico.
July 26, August 23,August 31, 1530 - These three powerful storms within 6 weeks blew down half the houses in San Juan, Puerto Rico and unroofed the remainder. Many cattle drowned.
July & August, 1537 - three hurricanes within two months kill many Indigenous and African slaves in Puerto Rico. A great number of cattle drowned.
August 24, 1568 - Hurricane strikes Puerto Rico.
September 21, 1575 - Hurricane known as San Mateo I causes severe devastation in Puerto Rico.
September 12, 1615 - The most severe hurricane to affect Puerto Rico in 40 years. (This suggests that other tropical storms may have occurred between 1575 and 1615).
September 12, 1738 - Hurricane roars into Puerto Rico causing extensive damage.
August, 1740 - Hurricane makes landfall in Puerto Rico. Exact date unknown.
August 18, 1751 - Hurricane severely affects Puerto Rico. Many deaths.
August 7, 1767 - Hurricane destroys many plantations in Puerto Rico. Many livestock drown.
August 28, 1772 - Hurricane affects Puerto Rico. Extent of damage unknown.
1776 - Hurricane hits Martinique killing 6,000 people. 1780 - The Great Hurricane of 1780 hits the Caribbean killing 22,000 and destroying French and British fleets. To date this is the deadliest storm reported in history. Passed over southwestern corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 25, 1785 - Violent hurricane lashes Puerto Rico.
August 15, 1788 - Hurricane seriously affects Puerto Rico.
September 21, 1804 - Hurricane known as San Mateo II devastates Puerto Rico. This hurricane would linger on in people's minds for many generations after as one the most violent hurricanes to ever make landfall in Puerto Rico. Many deaths were attributed to this storm.
August 17-19, 1807 - Hurricane traverses Puerto Rico slowly across 50 hours. Many people and livestock drown.
July 23, August 21, 1812 - Two hurricanes greatly impact Puerto Rico one after the other. Severe damage occurs. Much flooding.
July 23, 1813 - Hurricane crosses Puerto Rico.
July 22-23, 1814 - Hurricane affects Puerto Rico.
1816 - a severe hurricane slams into Puerto Rico. Exact date unknown.
September 22, 1818 - Hurricane severely impacts Puerto Rico.
September 22, 1819 - a destructive hurricane hitsthe Virgin Islands and causes severe damage in Puerto Rico.
July 26-27, 1825 - Hurricane Santa Ana roars through the Caribbean. Puerto Rico is devastated with pounding winds. A very violent and very destructive storm.
August 18-19, 1827 - Very destructive hurricane crosses Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
August 28, 1827- Hurricane affected Virgin Islands severely, especially St. Thomas.
August 11-12,1830 - Severe hurricane affected St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
August 13, 1835 - Hurricane crossed Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
July 31, 1837 - Hurricane severely affected St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
August 2-3, 1837 - a violent hurricane, known as "Los Angeles" (The Angels"), struck St. Thomas and skirted the northeastern coast of Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
1837 - Racer's Storm, named for the British war ship that encountered it in the Caribbean, formed near Jamaica and was one of the most deadliest storms of the 19th century
September 16, 1840 - Hurricane severely affected Puerto Rico.
September 12-13, 1846 - Hurricane passed by northeastern corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
August 18-19, 1851 - a violent hurricane, known as "Santa Elena",(also known as "San Agapito") skirted the south coast and crossed the southwestern corner of Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
September 1852 - Hurricane affected Puerto Rico; exact date unknown.
October 29, 1867 - the most violent hurricane in many parts of Puerto Rico, known as "San Narcisco". Accounts indicate it was a was a storm of small diameter and rapid movement. Also affected St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. 1,000 lives were lost.
September 13, 1876 - Hurricane San Felipe, a.k.a. San Felipe I, tears through St. Thomas and the southern coast of Puerto Rico.
September 9, 1883 - 105 mph winds hit east killing 106.

1889, September 3 A very destructive hurricane in St. Thomas. It passed east of the U.S. Virgin Islands in a SE to NW direction.
August 19-20, 1891 - Hurricane crossed eastern Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
August 24, 1891 - crosses Puerto Rico with winds measuring around 95 mph from the ESE.
August 16-17, 1893 - Hurricane passed Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
August 31- September 1, 1896 - Hurricane crossed southwestern corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 21-22, 1898 - Tropical Storm crossed northeastern Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
August 8, 1899 - an intense, devastating cyclone with sustained winds between 110-125 mph cuts directly across Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction. The storm was known as Hurricane San Ciriaco in Latin America and the "Great Puerto Rican Hurricane of 1899" in Anglo America. It rained for 31 days straight. The loss of life and property damage were immense. Over 3,400 people died in the floods and thousands were left without shelter, food, or work. The aftermath of this hurricane had tremendous repercussions for Puerto Rico as the United States saw this opportunity to buy the devasted farmlands at embarrassingly-low prices. This hurricane triggered a re-gentrification of the native populations to plantations in Hawaii and sweatshops in New York. Disease and poverty became rampant. Puerto Ricans, who once owned 93% of all arable land, now lost it to the absentee-owned sugar corporations who would hire the same destitute Puerto Ricans to work for very low wages on lands that once belonged to them. This was a major shifting political event in the U.S. takeover of the once-Spanish colonial island.




August 30- September 10, 1900 - Tropical storm of Cape Verde origin skirted the south coast of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction. It would go on to cross Hispaniola and Cuba as a tropical storm, but when it emerged in the Gulf of Mexico just SW of the Florida Keys, the intensification would begin. This powerful hurricane would go on to completely devastate the U.S. city of Galveston, Texas. Upon landfall (September 8-9) 8,000-10,000 persons were drowned when the city became inundated by the sudden, unexpected 20-foot storm surges.




October 24-26, 1900 - Tropical storm crossed southwestern corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
July 6-8, 1901 - Hurricane crossed southwestern Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 11-13, 1901 - Tropical storm skirted north coast of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
October 8-10, 1901 - Tropical storm crossed northeastern corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
July 19-20, 1903 - Tropical storm crossed Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
September 9-10, 1908 - Hurricane passed off north coast of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
September 26-27, 1908 Tropical storm passed off south coast of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
October 1, 1908 - 80 mph winds from the SSE
November 12-13, 1909 - Tropical storm passed off northwestern corner of Puerto Rico in a WSW to ENE direction.
August 24-25, 1910 - Tropical storm passed off south coast of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
September 6-7, 1910 - Hurricane skirted south coast of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
August 10-12, 1915 - Hurricane skirted south coasts of St.Croix , U.S.V.I. and Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
July 12-14, 1916 - Tropical storm passed through Virgin Islands in a SE to NW direction.
1919 - Hurricane strikes Cuba killing 600-900 before dissipating after hitting Texas
September 13, 1928 - The San Felipe Segundo Hurricane, as it was known in Latin America, was also known to Anglo Americans as the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane. On September 13 the storm struck Puerto Rico directly as a Category 5 hurricane, packing winds of 160 mph (255 km/h). Here it killed between 1,000 and 2,000 people (officially the death toll was recorded as 312) and caused USD $50 million (1928 dollars) in property damage. Next, it passed over the Bahamas where it claimed another 18 lives. Some sources list the death toll throughout the Caribbean as 1,575.
September 1930 -Hurricane hits the Dominican Republic killing thousands, leaving Santo Domingo almost totally destroyed.
August 17, 1931 - Tropical storm crossed Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 10-11, 1931 - Violent hurricane known as "San Nicolas", passed through Virgin Islands and skirted north coast of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction causing destruction along a strip 10 to 12 miles wide.
September 26-27, 1932 - Destructive hurricane, known as San Ciprian, passed through Virgin Islands and across Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
July 25-26, 1933 Tropical storm passed just northeast of Virgin Islands in a ESE to WNW direction.
September 27-28, 1933 - Tropical storm passed within 1o latitude south of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
August 21-22, 1934 -Tropical storm passed within 2º latitude south of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
September 18, 1934 - Tropical storm passed within 2º latitude northeast of Virgin Islands in a SE to NW direction.
August 24-25, 1937 - Tropical storm passed within 2º latitude northeast of Virgin Islands in a ESE to WNW direction.
August 8, 1938- Tropical storm passed through Virgin Islands and skirted north coast of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
August 7, 1939 - Tropical storm apparently developed about 1º latitude northeast of St. Thomas in the U.S.V.I. and moved northwestward.
August 5, 1940 - Tropical storm passed just north of St. Thomas in the U.S.V.I. in a ESE to WNW direction.
November 4, 1942 Tropical storm apparently developed just off southeastern Puerto Rico and crossed the northeastern part of the island in a ESE to WNW direction.
August 13-14, 1943 - Tropical storm passed just northeast of St. Thomas in the U.S.V.I. in a ESE to WNW direction.
October 14, 1943 Hurricane passed between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico in a S to N direction.
July 12-13, 1944 - Tropical storm apparently developed just off the northwest corner of Puerto Rico and moved northwestward.
August 3, 1945 - Tropical storm passed within 1º latitude of the southwestern corner of Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
September 112-13, 1945 - Hurricane passed within 2º latitude north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
October 16-17, 1947 - Tropical storm passed just northeast of St. Thomas in the U.S.V.I. in a SE to NW direction.
September 2-3, 1949 - Tropical storm developed between Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and moved northwest, reaching hurricane intensity and changing course to northward after passing 20º N latitude on the 3rd day.
August 23, 1950 Tropical storm passed over the southwest corner of Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
October 20, 1952 - Hurricane Fox hits from the SW with 150 mph winds killing 600.
September 14, 1953 - Tropical storm Edna passed within 1º latitude northeast of the Virgin Islands in a SE to NW direction.
August 30-31, 1954 - Tropical storm Dolly formed just off the northwestern corner of Puerto Rico and moved off in NNW direction.
January 3, 1955 - Hurricane Alice passed within 1º latitude southeast of St. Croix in the U.S.V.I. in a ENE to WSW direction.
September 11-12, 1955 - Tropical storm Hilda passed within 1º latitude north of St. Thomas in the U.S.V.I. in a ESE to WNW direction reaching hurricane intensity on the 12th.
August 11-12, 1956 Hurricane Santa Clara( a.k.a. Betsy) crossed Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 13-14, 1958 - Tropical Storm Gerda passed about 1º latitude from southwestern corner of Puerto Rico in a ESE to WNW direction.
October 6, 1958 - Hurricane Janice hits with 90 mph wind
August 18-19, 1959 - Tropical Storm Edith passed within 1º latitude south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from a E to W direction.
September 4-6, 1960 - Hurricane Donna passed within 1º latitude from St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
October 2-3, 1961 - Hurricane Frances passed within 1º latitude from the southwestern corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 26-27, 1963 - Hurricane Edith headed due N toward the southwestern tip of Puerto Rico and then turned due W just before making land.
August 22-23, 1964 - Hurricane Cleo passed within 2º latitude south of Puerto Rico from a E to W direction.
September 4, 1965 - Hurricane Betsy hits the North end of the Bahamas as a category 3 with gusts to 126 mph, stalling over Nassau doing considerable damage
August 26, 1966 - Hurricane Faith passed about 1º latitude northeast of the Virgin Islands in a E-SE to W-NW direction.
September 28, 1966 - Hurricane Inez passed about 1º latitude south of Puerto Rico and St. Croix in a E to W direction.
October 2, 1966 - Hurricane Inez hits Bahamas with 85 mph winds
September 9-10, 1967 - Hurricane Beulah passed within 1º southwest of southwestern corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 3-4, 1973 - Tropical Storm Christine weakened into a tropical depression before passing over the northern U.S. Virgin Islands and just northeast of the NE tip of Puerto Rico. It dissipated shortly afterwards.
August 29-30, 1974 - Tropical Depression developed into Tropical Storm Carmen as it passed about 1o south of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
September 15, 1975 - Tropical Depression developed into Tropical Storm Eloise just as it reached within 1o north of the northeastern tip of Puerto Rico as it passed in a E to W direction.
July 17-18, 1979 - Tropical Storm Claudette passed over northern U.S. Virgin Islands and weakened to a Tropical Depression just as it hit the northeast coast of Puerto Rico. It then traveled right along the northern coastline of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
September 2, 1979 - Hurricane David hits Dominica and skirts by Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with Category 4 storms before making landfall in the Dominican Republic as a powerful Category 5 storm with gusts up to 165 mph, reportedly wiping out jungles and entire neighborhoods.
September 3-4, 1979 - Tropical Storm Frederic passed over St. Croix and then traveled right along the southern coast of Puerto Rico in a E to W direction.
September 4, 1981 - Tropical Storm Floyd passed within 1º latitude of northern U.S. Virgin Islands in a SE to NW direction.
September 8, 1981 - Tropical Storm Gert passed just near St. Croix and then over the northeast corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
November 6-7, 1984 - Tropical Storm Klaus passed just between Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in a SW to NE direction.
September 22, 1987 - Hurricane Emily passed almost 2º latitude southwest of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 10, 1988 - Tropical Storm Gilbert turned into Hurricane Gilbert as it passed about 2º latitude south of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
1989, August 3-4 Hurricane Dean passed almost 2º northeast of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 17-18, 1989 - Hurricane Hugo passed over St Croix...then Vieques and Culebra and the northeast corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
October 7, 1990 - Tropical Storm Klaus passed just northwest of northern U.S. Virgin Islands in a E-SE to W-NW direction.
August 16, 1993 - Tropical Storm Cindy passed almost 2o southwest of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
September 5-6, 1995 - Hurricane Luis passed just north of U.S. Virgin Islands in a SE to NW direction.
September 15-16, 1995 - Hurricane Marilyn passed over St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands in a SE to NW direction.
October 23-24, 1995 - As Tropical Storm Sebastien passed within 1º latitude southeast of U.S. Virgin Islands it weakened to a tropical depression and then dissipated just SE of Puerto Rico as it moved in a NE to SW direction.
July 8-9, 1996 - Hurricane Bertha passed just northeast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in a SE to NW direction.
September 9-10, 1996 - Hurricane Hortense passed over the southwest corner of Puerto Rico in a SE to NW direction.
October 18, 1996 - Hurricane Lili hits Cuba, moves through the Florida Straits and heads toward the Bahamas with sustained winds at 90 mph
September 5-8, 1997 - Hurricane Erika passed about 2o latitude northeast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in a SE to NW direction.
September 21-22, 1998 - Hurricane Georges passed over St Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands and then entered Puerto Rico near Humacao and traveled through the interior of the island exiting just south of Mayaguez in Cabo Rojo. The hurricane traveled mainly in an E to W direction.




October 20-21, 1999 - Tropical Storm Jose passed within 1º latitude to the northeast of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in a E-SE to W-NW direction and then turned N-NE once in the Atlantic to the north of our local islands. For storm report click here.
November 16-18, 1999 - Hurricane Lenny passed within 1o latitude to the south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in a W to E direction and then eventually turned E-NE over the northern Leeward Islands and into the Atlantic. For storm report click here.
August 21-23,2000 - Hurricane Debby passed just north of St Thomas and within 1º latitude to the northeast of Puerto Rico in an E-SE to W-NW direction.
August 22-23, 2001 Tropical Storm Dean formed from a tropical wave over the Virgin Islands on August 22nd and a Hurricane Hunter plane indicated winds near hurricane force later that day. The system encountered an unfavorable environment the next day north of Puerto Rico and weakened to a tropical wave. Winds to tropical storm force were reported in the U.S. Virgin Islands and there was an estimated $2 million in damage due to flooding in Puerto Rico.
November 5, 2001 Hurricane Michelle hits the Bahamas with 80 mph winds moving quickly to the NE some gusts to 100 mph
September 3 - September 5, 2004 - Hurricane Frances lingers over the Bahamas as a category 4 causing significant vegetative and structural damage
2004 - Hurricane Jeanne formed near the Leeward Islands and passed over near St. Croix. It crossed Puerto Rico as a very strong tropical storm and reached hurricane strength just before making landfall over the Dominican Republic as a Category One. It proceeded to move over Haiti causing mudslides that left 3,000 dead.
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hurricanes_in_the_Caribbean"
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Sep, 2005 05:42 pm
religious certainty is what it is not George
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Sep, 2005 09:43 am
Steve (as 41oo) wrote:
religious certainty is what it is not George


... religious certainty is certainly what it is Steve.

Your devoted adherence to the truth of hypothesis upon hypothesis based on nothing more than the your opinion, and/or the opinions of others, is characteristic of devotion to strictly faithbased doctrines and systems of belief. Evidence to support my claim is provided by you, Steve, each and every time you claim something to be true without providing or having had provided some examples and evidence of its truth (e.g., your above post of your hypothesis absent examples and evidence).

Quote:
www.m-w.com
Main Entry: re·li·gion
Pronunciation: ri-'li-j&n
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English religioun, from Latin religion-, religio supernatural constraint, sanction, religious practice, perhaps from religare to restrain, tie back -- more at RELY
1 a : the state of a religious <a nun in her 20th year of religion> b (1) : the service and worship of God or the supernatural (2) : commitment or devotion to religious faith or observance
2 : a personal set or institutionalized system of religious attitudes, beliefs, and practices
3 archaic : scrupulous conformity : CONSCIENTIOUSNESS
4 : a cause, principle, or system of beliefs held to with ardor and faith
- re·li·gion·less adjective
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Sep, 2005 10:47 am
blatham wrote:
George, we've all noticed, uses 'special interests' as the typical modern american rightwing derogation. That is, his usage of the derogation includes, for example, all women, all folks who do not share his notions of proper christian theology, folks who don't share the burden of being white, etc. The Petro Chemical Industry, however, isn't a 'special interest', it is something else, perhaps a natural and infallible thing growing inevitably out of god's thigh, like the pope.

You must have been reading posts from a different George than I have. From the posts by the George I have read, I got away with a different impression. He does appear to think that NOW, NAACP, and PfAW are entitled to no more respect than lobbyists for the petrochemical industry are. He also doesn't seem to buy into their ever-present insinuation that they embody all women, all blacks, and civil rights respectively. I agree with George on both points. Blatham, whom I consider a friend, refuses to make that distinction, in chorus with too many other. I am losing patience with the blind ideological and partisan stupidness which this shows.

I would return the rest of blatham's compliment too, but I'll save myself the typing and my readers the bother of re-reading this particular compliment.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Sep, 2005 11:23 am
roger wrote:
I think it was, McTag. The storms are either consistant, or at least, not inconsistant, with global warming.

The wording in the paper is "not inconsistent", which is a fairly weak wording. If you read the paper itself, you will notice how guarded and cautious the overall tone is.

Quote:
We deliberately limited this study to the satellite era because of the known biases before this period (28), which means that a comprehensive analysis of longer-period oscillations and rends has not been attempted. There is evidence of a minimum of intense cyclones occurring in the 1970s (11), which could indicate that our observed trend toward more intense cyclones is a reflection of a long-period oscillation. However, the sustained increase over a period of 30 years in the proportion of category 4 and 5 hurricanes indicates that the related oscillation would have to be on a period substantially longer than that observed in previous studies.

We conclude that global data indicate a 30- year trend toward more frequent and intensehurricanes, corroborated by the results of the recent regional assessment (29). This trend is not inconsistent with recent climate model simulations that a doubling of CO2 may increase the frequency of the most intense cyclones (18, 30), although attribution of the 30-year trends to global warming would require a longer global data record and, especially, a deeper understanding of the role of hurricanes in the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, even in the present climate state.

Source (PDF)

Language as weak and guarded as this leaves plenty of room for George and myself to be unpersuaded, and for the last three American presidents' official position that "we don't really know enough yet to draw policy conclusions." I really see no need to ascribe religious or malicious partisanship motives to global warming doves like us. Claims as cautious as the article's are consistent with our view too. But some people confidently assert that their conclusions from the article is the only one that's plausible and intellectually honest. And I do see a lot of zeal in that insistence. Call it ideological, call it religious -- a rose by any other name ...
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Sep, 2005 12:48 pm
ican711nm wrote:

Quote:
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
(Redirected from History of hurricanes in the caribbean)
Since 1465, the islands of the Caribbean have experienced ample hurricane activity; either being directly hit or significantly brushed. The following is a history of hurricane activity in the Caribbean

etc. etc. etc.


The percentage of big storms in the North Atlantic has increased from 20 percent to 25 percent. The rise is much worse in the rest of the world, where millions of less fortunate people cannot flee the coast in SUVs on interstate roads.

In the 1970s, no ocean basin saw more than 25 percent of hurricanes become a 4 or 5. Today, that percentage is 34, 35, and 41 percent, respectively, in the South Indian, East Pacific, and West Pacific oceans. The biggest jump was in the Southwestern Pacific, from 8 percent to 25 percent.


Source: research reports in 'Nature' by Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and 'Science' by atmospheric researchers at Georgia Tech and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Sep, 2005 01:52 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:

...
In the 1970s, no ocean basin saw more than 25 percent of hurricanes become a 4 or 5. Today, that percentage is 34, 35, and 41 percent, respectively, in the South Indian, East Pacific, and West Pacific oceans. The biggest jump was in the Southwestern Pacific, from 8 percent to 25 percent.
...


What caused the percentage of Level 4 and 5 hurricanes on Earth to increase over the last 30 years?

Hypothesis: Global Warming

What is causing Global Warming?

Hypotheses:
1. Increase in the sun's radiation that reaches Earth's surface.
2. Increase in the CO2 in the atmosphere.

What is causing the increase in the sun's radiation that reaches Earth's surface?

What is causing the increase in the CO2 in the atmosphere?

Dilemma: Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere increases the percentage of the sun's radiation that is deflected by the atmosphere away from Earth's surface; increasing CO2 in the atmosphere increases the percentage of the heat radiated from Earth's surface that is deflected back to Earth's surface.

Why are the polar ice caps on Mars melting?

Hypothesis: Increase in the sun's radiation that reaches Mars's surface.

What is causing the increase in the sun's radiation that reaches Mar's surface?
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Sep, 2005 01:58 pm
Quote:
What caused the percentage of Level 4 and 5 hurricanes on earth to increase over the last 30 years?

Hypothesis: Global Warming


Incorrect hypothesis. The real hypothesis is:

Climate instability.

The problem isn't the rise in temperature as much as it is mucking with the weather patterns.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
 

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