Checking in on Macron, France

Sweden has been run by coalitions since the 1970s, Germany has not known single-party government since 1961 and in Italy, multiparty rule has been the norm since the early 1940s. The Netherlands was last run by just one party in 1879.

In France, however, political leaders from left and right have lined up to rule out a coalition government after Sunday’s snap election produced a parliament of three roughly equal blocs – none with a majority, and all with wildly differing platforms.
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For their part, Macron’s centrists have accepted the idea of a broad possible coalition ranging from the moderate-left Socialist party (PS) to LR, acknowledging that a stable government would require compromise and cooperation. They just won’t do it with LFI.

“We cannot work with those who aim to divide the French people,” said Benjamin Haddad, a Together MP. “I would oppose an NFP-led government and vote in favour of any no-confidence motion against a cabinet containing ministers from LFI.”

Such responses may be difficult for many Europeans to understand, and certainly look unhelpful for a country in need of a government that might be acceptable to voters – and last longer than a few weeks before being voted out by a majority of MPs.

But at national government level, French politics and coalitions have not mixed for many years. That’s partly a consequence of a two-round electoral system that almost invariably produces single-party majorities without the need for coalitions.

The system was part of France’s response to the chaos of the Fourth Republic, which between 1946 and 1958 saw no fewer than 21 “revolving door” governments come and go, along with 16 prime ministers, some of whom lasted only days.
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“To put it bluntly: French political parties are not used to negotiating coalitions and compromises,” said Isabelle Guinaudeau, a specialist in political competition and comparative politics at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS). “Each hopes to benefit from France’s majoritarian institutions to implement all its agenda.”

That approach was still evident, she said, after Macron blew up French politics, triggering the collapse of the mainstream centre-right and left, in 2017. In the 2022 parliamentary elections, she noted, “Macron did not obtain an absolute majority. But did he try to negotiate a coalition or support in exchange for policy concessions? No.”

Instead, she said, Macron opted for a “strong-arm procedure”. The president resorted to special constitutional powers such as the unpopular article 49.3 to push legislation through without a parliamentary vote – a strategy that can work only as long as there is no majority of MPs willing to collapse the government.

In France’s new parliament, however, that will be impossible. Any government relying on support from just one of the three main blocs is necessarily doomed – unless it has negotiated, at the very least, a few basic positions and red lines.

“So either French party officials learn to negotiate and set up new types of coalitions,” said Guinaudeau, “or we have good chances of seeing the next government falling due to a no-confidence motion – triggering an institutional crisis.”

France’s president says delay is to avoid disorder, after leftist coalition announces Lucie Castet as its pick to become PM

Emmanuel Macron has said he will maintain the country’s centrist caretaker government until the end of the Olympic Games in mid-August to avoid disorder.

His announcement in a TV interview came shortly after the leftist coalition that won the most votes in this month’s parliamentary elections selected little-known civil servant Lucie Castets as their choice for prime minister.

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In terms of France’s governance, if the RN does join forces with the NFP to bring Barnier down, Macron has a range of choices. But he is constitutionally constrained by the fact that, because he dissolved parliament in June, he cannot do so again until June 2025.

The president could simply reinstate Barnier as prime minister, which parliament would see as provocative and most observers therefore consider unlikely. He could also ask France’s warring political parties to try to build a new coalition, this time with more support.

That could, for example, involve renewed centrist attempts to peel the more moderate elements of the NFP, including the PS, away from the leftist bloc. Although the NFP has frequently appeared fractured, there is no guarantee that would work.

Macron could also decide to appoint a technocratic government to oversee France’s administration for another six months. Finally, he could himself resign, triggering new presidential elections, but for the time being that is seen as unlikely.

Even though Le Pen is saying her party will back a no-confidence vote, the RN could yet change tack and hold fire this time. The final opportunity this year for it to topple the government would be on the last budget vote on 20 December, and many observers still question what political gain there is for Le Pen in bringing Barnier down now.

X had a variety of opinionators saying France’s govt will collapse today.

[The]parliamentary debate [in Paris] kicks off at 4pm local time (3pm GMT) with a discussion of an unrelated matter tabled by the radical left LFI.

That means the debate on the two no-confidence motions should in principle begin at about 4.45pm. The motions, one presented by the left-leaning NFP alliance and the other by the far right RN, will be debated together.

One speaker from each parliamentary group will address the motions, starting with MP Eric Coquerel for LFI. He will be followed by Marine Le Pen for the RN, then the Socialist party (PS), the centre-right Les Républicains, the Greens and the various centrist parties that make up Emanual Macron’s alliance.

Each speaker is strictly time-limited, so we can be fairly sure we will have about two-and-a-half or two-and-three-quarter hours of debate, with a vote then due at about 7.45pm local time. Voting should take about 45 minutes.

Deputies will vote first on the NFP’s no-confidence motion – the one most likely to pass. To succeed, the motion needs 288 votes – slightly less than the assembly’s 289-seat majority because three bye-elections are underway.

In principle, therefore, Michel Barnier and his government’s fate should be decided by about 8.30pm this evening.