Checking in on Macron, France

As far as I can gather from afar -- that's one of those times when I hate being an expat -- Paris is unhappy about the violence, the burned cars, the tagged monuments, the general disruption. The demonstrations have a strong anti-elite spirit, the demonstrators on the Champs Élysées often come from far outside Paris. In a way, this is more like la province revolting against Paris, than it is about Paris leading another French revolution. It is akin to the farmers insurrections of times past, the jacqueries. It's a Facebook-era jacquerie.

https://www.rt.com/viral/379095-macron-egg-french-campaign/

March 2017

Lots of rough articles about Macron bandied about Twitter. The complaints are so similar to the complaints that still fill Sanders auditoriums here—and finally push Dem Socialists through the crooked establishment stranglehold.

“Neoliberal Macron,” “elitist Macron...”

Watching closely. French and American Revolutions pair well.

An opinion about what’s happening in France. NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/world/europe/yellow-vests-france.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

In part:

How France’s ‘Yellow Vests’ Differ From Populist Movements Elsewhere.

The demands of the so-called Yellow Vests in France are similar to those of other populist movements, but the uprising is not tied to any political party, let alone to a right-wing one.
By Adam Nossiter
Dec. 5, 2018

PARIS — Too little, too late: That was the reaction of the so-called Yellow Vest protesters to the French government’s sudden retreat this week on a gas tax increase. The Yellow Vests, who have thrown France into turmoil with violent protests in recent weeks, say they want more, and they want it sooner rather than later — lower taxes, higher salaries, freedom from gnawing financial fear, and a better life.

Those deeper demands, the government’s inability to keep up, and fierce resentment of prosperous and successful cities run like an electrified wire connecting populist uprisings in the West, including in Britain, Italy, the United States and, to a lesser extent, Central Europe.

What ties these uprisings together, beyond the demands, is a rejection of existing parties, unions and government institutions that are seen as incapable of channeling the depth of their grievances or of offering a bulwark against economic insecurity.

But what makes France’s revolt different is that it has not followed the usual populist playbook. It is not tethered to a political party, let alone to a right-wing one. It is not focusing on race or migration, and those issues do not appear on the Yellow Vests’ list of complaints...

Everyone wants more money, or in the case of the disadvantaged, more economic security. But wasn't France itself facing great economic insecurity, saddled with unproductivity due to labor laws written in another era in the face of different conditions? Wasn't the flight of the investing class (fleeing high taxes) severely affecting the business climate? And without a healthy private sector, how can employment opportunities be maximized?

It's one thing to decry the gap between the rich and the poor but it's another thing to exploit it. Rioting in the streets and destroying property may be a good way of attracting attention but how effective is it when it comes to solving actual problems? As of now, there's no political party associated with this movement and I haven't seen any concrete proposals coming from their side, other than "Tax the Rich" and I suspect that the big political winner will be LePen and the National Rally.

Add to this the current difficulties within the EU, the immigration crisis, and the inexorable and mounting effects of climate change. Damn, things aren't looking very good.

Rioting in the streets and destroying property may be a good way of attracting attention but how effective is it when it comes to solving actual problems?
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So far, they forced Macron to back off of his higher gas tax. Now, they’re calling for Macron’s ouster. I guess the effectiveness will continue to be determined.

I think protests like this are phenomenally powerful, like the one in 1789...

You might be right about the primary short-term benefactors. Macron’s election was basically a repudiation of long-standing political parties. What organization other than Le Pen’s party is still standing?

So many points to consider from your post. This is the last one for me this morning.

Your comment “It's one thing to decry the gap between the rich and the poor but it's another thing to exploit it” really smacks of financial detachment from those on the ground.

They aren’t ‘exploiting’ the gap between haves and have nots, they are suffering because of it. I think this distinction is what separates the ‘Centrists’ from the progressives. Hillary Centrists seem to place great importance on saying the right things about gays, poor, blacks, etc—but they wouldn’t get shoulder to shoulder with these people and empathetically understand what life is for these people they love to champion valiantly online.

Well, I did hear people in France raising that point, so that's why I made the remark. It was suggested that many of the people demonstrating aren't really suffering in poverty, it's more that they are resentful and feeling "locked in place". (I don't know any of this to be the case; I've never been to France nor have I had discussions with anyone with firsthand knowledge of the situation.)

Let's leave Hillary out of it, for the time being anyway. The best centrists, the most effective ones, are those who are able to communicate with people on both sides, forge compromises, and move the process forward. This dynamic doesn't appear to be functioning very well in today's polarized atmosphere. I had hopes for Macron — but unfortunately so did much of France. I don't know if people expected a miracle or what but I see a lot of very disappointed people and I see Macron lacks the "common touch" that helps to insulate politicians from policies which haven't shown promised results.

Solutions to complex problems take time and during that time it's relatively easy to stoke popular disappointment, hold new elections, and jettison programs which hadn't had time to even begin to work as planned. Then the next guys get in, put their own policies in place — and then there's a war, a recession, or an immigration crisis which gets dumped in their lap. New elections follow, a new party takes over, new policies put in place...and then the whole cycle repeats itself.

But how does this help France move to a sustainable, pollution-free energy economy which cuts carbon emissions?

Not by unaffordable authoritarianism...

Dropping off a eye-popper—for me.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/if-emmanuel-macron-falls-what-follows-him.html

What next for France if this is curtains for Macron?

I don't see "democratic socialism" in France's immediate future — probably populist nationalism. And, should that be the case, what next for the European Union, Western democracy, climate policy, the world as we know it? I'm not getting a good feeling about this.

Looks like some big changes down the pike. Trump’s warden is leaving before January, France is burning, Belgium is having a few street protests a la yellow vests, and England’s leave-taking from the EU is supposedly around the corner.

Watching...

Btw, I read today that Macron’s approval rating is half Trump’s. They’re saying he was a corporatist in progressive clothing... I’m not making this up.

The fading Merkel, the Italian populists, Franco nostalgia in Spain, Brexit — and that's just western Europe!

I wonder — is "progressive corporatism" a thing?

My impression is that the unrest in France does indeed reflect a divide between a largely rural class and the urban elites who support Macron.

The specific issue igniting the yellow jackets apparently was a new tax on petroleum fuels enacted by President Macron who a appears to be seeking environmentalist sainthood by outlining an intended gradual shutdown of France's extensive network of pressurized water nuclear reactors which produce roughly 70 % of France's electrical power - a level unmatched by any other western nation, and, because it is emissions free, has given France a strong advantage over other European nations in meeting declared Paris Treaty Goals. Evidently Macron sees a future in which France's abundant nuclear energy will be replaced by wind and solar - an unrealistic fantasy. (When Merkel shut down about half of Germany's reactors - in an effort to undermine the Green Party - the lost power was largely replaced by coal burning plants, some using low grade European brown coal that yields significantly more emissions per unit of power produced than American hard coal. Despite huge investments in wind and solar power, Germany now relies more on coal as a source of energy than it did a couple of decades ago. In pursuit of his illusions Macron levied a Tax on gasoline deliberately designed to reduce consumption. The effect of this tax on wealthier urban elites who use government subsidized mass transit was very small relative to that on a rural population that generally has lower incomes and spends a greater fraction of it on such fuels for their vehicles.

In this respect Oliver's reference to a Jaquery uprising is apt indeed. This problem is widespread in other nations as well. For this and several other reasons we are increasingly seeing in many nations a growing divide between the ambitions of urban elites ( which increasingly believe they - alone- know what is good for everyone else) and the economic needs of a less wealthy rural and blue collar population. This is certainly a factor also seen in American politics, and it is becoming increasingly pervasive in Europe.

This is a good narrative if you want to promote the politics of division and resentment. I think there is a (universal) constituency that responds (always has always will) to that sort of thing (fearful people easily provoked and readily riled up by conmen and messiahs) but I'd hate to think that such demagoguery could occur in the USA.

It’s not a ‘narrative.’ It’s a cold, hard reality that put Donald Trump in the White House. I think you still don’t have a handle on what’s currently happening.

Well, I think there's more going on than is indicated in that particular accounting of the current global political situation. I see georgeob1's belief (similar to Bannon's) — which I didn't know you shared — as very helpful to the cause of entrenched wealth because it liberates the successful from any remnant of "noblesse oblige". I think it's very clever to turn the struggling and the poor against the welfare state — without providing a reasonable economic alternative — by stoking the very sense of class resentment that once threatened the Old Regime when it was firmly in control. Lash, I don't think there's a master plan. I think we're reaping a bitter harvest of misjudgment and greed, the seeds of which were sown earlier in our development as a species. And I do think that the stories we use to describe ourselves are important, subtly (or not so subtly) shaping our understanding of what's possible.

What George said is undeniably true, although he doesn’t agree with my view of why it’s true in America.

In our country, things like superdelegates and unaffordable healthcare further degrade the quality of life for average people. Epidemic drug abuse is driving suicide and accidental death so high that our national life-expectancy has dropped. Education costs and healthcare costs bankrupt the current generation. Corruption in our government cuts off regular Americans from doing **** about it. Our government is completely unaccountable for trillions of ‘lost’ (read STOLEN) dollars, while we are poisoned by chemicals our untouchable elitist lawmakers get pay offs to allow into our food. Because of the utter corruption of our government, we have no recourse. Even our attempts to vote are becoming meaningless because of backroom deals, cronyism, and outright cheating at our polling places.

Several other countries are experiencing this dramatic gulf between elites and common people in other and similar ways, and an overdue recalculation is underway.

What has been allowed in my country and how it has and is affecting me, people I love, and people I see requires a response. You see that response from millions like me playing out across the world. It’s overdue and just getting started.

You can’t blame a demagogue for this ****. Just look at reality.