A wish and a prayer for the Ukrainian democrats, please

What I dont get is ... was their intention to kill him? Then they messed up badly ... but wouldnt it have looked a little suspicious, anyway?

My working theory was that they just wanted him out of the race - like, simply sufficiently incapacitated. They cant have foreseen (whoever "they" turn out to be exactly) that he would go on campaigning like that, a tube up his spine for intravenal injection of painkillers or what was it ...

But even so, they were taking quite the risk of getting caught, no? Gotten overconfident, perhaps? Or did they just **** up? Thats the thing that still makes me doubt whether the FSB really could have been involved - I mean, I can imagine the Ukrainian secret service ****ing up like that, but the Russians?

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Oh, I dunno nimh - Ivan might be a decent geopolitical chess player overall, but he screws up big-time once in a while when it comes to individual moves here and there.

I sorta think it really was an assassination attempt - really a very Russian/KGB sorta thing to try - and, after all, what was Putin's job before he got the big desk? I figure if the Russkies were behind it (and I figure they were), the thinkin' was that Yushchenko would take a few days or so to die, there's be little or no apparent connection to his last proximity to any Russians, the coroner's report would turn up nothin', dioxin bein' not only unexpected but pretty difficult to detect unless you know to look for it, and bingo! A credible opponent is outta the picture and whatever comes next can be dealt with more comfortably. I just figure they didn't figure he'd live. I also figure they're pretty well busted, and I even further figure Putin has already set in motion whatever he figures will work as far as hangin' out to dry some poor middle-level functionary on whom independent blame can credibly be placed.

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It makes the most sense to me that they were trying to deal a fatal blow to his campaign rather than to his person. A hallmark of this type of poisoning is not only the incapacitation but the horrible acne and gray cast to his face. As it was, he didn't want to get a biopsy of his face because he didn't want to campaign with a bandage on his face.

Imagine if Bush went from looking like he does to a pustulent, swollen, gray-visaged, feeble apparition in the last month of his campaign. Would push all manner of buttons -- unfit to govern, unhealthy, just plain gross.

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timberlandko wrote:

I also figure they're pretty well busted, and I even further figure Putin has already set in motion whatever he figures will work as far as hangin' out to dry some poor middle-level functionary on whom independent blame can credibly be placed.

Like after the Beslan histage-taking, when the Russian state TV proudly showed the one hostage-taker the special forces claimed to have caught ... except the former hostages later said they'd never seen the guy, and it turned out he was a criminal who should have still been serving his time in prison during the hostage crisis ... or was ... Forced to act as scapegoat, sacrifical lamb? In exchange for, or under threat of what?

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nimh wrote:

Well, that should be interesting.

(Thanks for posting btw SerSo, its always good to hear an alternate take on things.)

Nimh, I am afraid I can hardly be referenced as an advocate of the other camp. I am Russian (although of Ukrainian ancestry) and not directly involved into the events in the Ukraine. I only watch them at a closer distance and am able to hear different opinions from Ukrainians themselves. Maybe if I had been Ukrainian I would have voted for Alexander Moroz. I fully understand those Ukrainians who want changes and are deeply disappointed in the government which have been ruling the country for nearly a decade (I can even share their feelings because life in Russia and the Ukraine differs very little for the time being). They regard Yanukovych as the man who is going to keep the situation as it is and hope that Yushchenko can bring them positive changes. On the other hand Yushchenko used to be also a member of president Kuchma’s team, the same as Yanukovych who took over him later. Yushchenko supporters say that he was the first ever Ukrainian PM (since the country gained independance) who achieved economic growth and good financial indicators such as inflation rate, stability of the national currency, banking system etc. Yanukovych followers argue that their candidate achieved a more impressing growth in the economy and while Yushchenko’s financial victories were won at the expense of working people, as it was quite normal at that time for Ukrainian employers to refuse paying salaries to their employees, Yanukovych made wages grow.

As to the poisoning, I prefer to not speculate if I really know nothing. I see many other people who know no more but have already found who is to blame. If somebody wanted him to die, I also do not think they would have chosen dioxin.

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SerSo wrote:

As to the poisoning, I prefer to not speculate if I really know nothing. I see many other people who know no more but have already found who is to blame. If somebody wanted him to die, I also do not think they would have chosen dioxin.

Quote:

Yushchenko Poisoned by TCDD
Yushchenko Poisoned by TCDD, the Most Harmful Known Dioxin, Scientist Says

Source

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I'll see if I can find the supporting report, but the doctors said that the amounts of dioxin should have killed him about 6 times over. He shouldn't be alive.

They also said that if Yuschenko had died and been buried, his face wouldn't have gotten weird for about two or three weeks after the poisoning. So, the cause would have been assumed to have been a stomach bug or something. Had he died (as I think he was supposed to) no one would have suspected dioxin. They'd have had no reason to.

It was attempted murder.

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Interesting.

Would like to see that, hadn't known the 6 times over part.

So it goes from sickly and unfit to govern, to so strong he's unkillable. Cool.

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SerSo wrote:

nimh wrote:
(Thanks for posting btw SerSo, its always good to hear an alternate take on things.)

Nimh, I am afraid I can hardly be referenced as an advocate of the other camp.

Note, I didnt say you were.

An "alternate take" need not mean anything more than "a different take" (webster.com: "constituting an alternative"). And you did contribute a useful, different take.

Nothing was implied about it thus necessarily representing "the other camp" or anything.

Quote:

As to the poisoning, I prefer to not speculate if I really know nothing. I see many other people who know no more but have already found who is to blame.

I don't think we know "nothing". There's quite some info about the kind of poisoning, what caused it, how severe it was, et cetera - and also about how doctors who examined Yushchenko (in Vienna and Amsterdam) submit a "third party" is likely or must have been involved. We've collected a bunch of that just in this thread alone.

Of course it's important to separate findings from speculation. The Independent article I posted here about how the Russian secret service might be involved is, thus far, firmly in the corner of speculation - and that's how I explicitly presented it here as well, as interesting informed guesswork.

But I think we've gone clearly beyond the "we know nothing yet, really", by now.

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I don't know if it matters to SerSo or not--but I didn't want to think Russia was the culprit. I don't think anyone here was looking for something to blame on Russia.

The new thawing of the relationship between my country and the former USSR has been very comforting to the West. Maybe we do assume the former USSR is most likely behind poisonings and clandestine murders than we should...

(But, I bet they are...)

No insult intended to you. The US was supposedly guilty of a poisoning attempt of Castro... Nobody's perfect.

I mean--who were we kidding, really? It was nice to pretend on the surface that the Cold War was over. But, who among us REALLY believed that Russia's old hardliners would be satisfied with the mess they were left with?

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(Did you find the 6 times over link, Lash?)

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No. I have found 6,000 times over the normal limit.

I'll keep looking around for the quote.

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6000 times normal is the reported concentration level, and apparently is the second-highest confirmed dosage known. There is uncertainty as to what the 100% lethal dose might be. Dioxin of the nature and purity of that used is itself not likely to have originated outside of governmentally-overseen channels. The chemical signature of the substance discovered is consistent with a form of Dioxin Russia, among very, very few others, is known to have produced. The very sophisticated lab that produced it may have been in a basement, or anywhere else, but its extremely probable the order to use it came from pretty high up somewhere.

Quote:

BBC: Deadly dioxin used on Yushchenko
Last Updated: Friday, 17 December, 2004, 19:17 GMT

Tests have revealed that the chemical used to poison Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko was pure TCDD, the most harmful known dioxin ...

... It is a single chemical, not a mix," Prof Abraham Brouwer of the Free University in Amsterdam told the Associated Press.

"This tells us... there is no way it occurred naturally because it is so pure."

He said there were some small signs which could reveal where it was made.

Initial tests had shown the level of poison in Mr Yushchenko's blood was more than 6,000 times higher than normal - the second highest level ever recorded in humans.

Quote:

Guardian (UK): Ukrainian Rivals Campaign in Same City

Friday December 17, 2004 8:46 PM

... Mykola Polyshchuk, a member of the parliamentary commission investigating Yushchenko's poisoning, said he could not say where the dioxin came from.

``There are certain forms of dioxins that are produced in Russia,'' he said.

A professor with Kiev's Institute of Ecological Hygiene and Toxicology, Galyna Balan, said there are no facilities in Ukraine capable of producing dioxin.

Smeshko's spokeswoman, Marina Ostapenko, declined to comment about the alleged involvement of the state security's chief in Yushchenko's poisoning.

In an interview with AP on Thursday, Yanukovych said he felt sorry for his opponent but added he did not ``want to be associated with the part of the authorities Yushchenko was talking about.''

Quote:

UPI-WP: Report: French PR firm linked to poisoning

Kiev, Ukraine, Dec. 17 (UPI) -- The extent of an apparent plot to poison Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's opposition leader, and then cover up the evidence now reaches across Europe.

Yushchenko, who said he was poisoned with dioxin at a dinner with Ukraine's secret police, was found to have ingested 6,000 times the level of dioxin healthy people have, the Financial Times reported Friday.

Soon after Yushchenko first claimed he had been poisoned, President Leonid Kuchma's son-in-law engaged a French public relations team to initiate a media campaign, centered on a Vienna clinic, calculated to disparage the poisoning accusations, the newspaper said.

Yffic Nouvellon of EuroRSCG and his public relations team arranged a press conference where Lothar Wicke, general manager of Vienna's Rudolfinerhaus Clinic, contradicted Yushchenko's poisoning allegations.

Nouvellon also contacted international media offering "evidence" Yushchenko had not been poisoned. When asked during the media campaign, Nouvellon denied any connections to Kuchma's family.

The clinic's president has since cut its ties to Nouvellon and EuroRSCG and confirmed that Yushchenko was poisoned with the most powerful form of dioxin, TCDD, notorious from its use by U.S. forces in the Vietnam War in the defoliant Agent Orange, Sky News said.

It seems more and more that The Russian Connection waddles, quacks, and has feathers .....

Oh, and pardon the French Dressing - I'm sure that angle ain't there, other than as incidental to the real question, as related above in the context of dosage and purity.

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Lash wrote:

They also said that if Yuschenko had died and been buried, his face wouldn't have gotten weird for about two or three weeks after the poisoning. So, the cause would have been assumed to have been a stomach bug or something. Had he died (as I think he was supposed to) no one would have suspected dioxin. They'd have had no reason to.

Thought this was enlightening, and yup, found it back (coincidentally) in today's The Times (I was having tea in Polmans ...):

Quote:

[..] several top toxicologists said they believed the dioxin was the compound 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin or "TCDD" - a component of Agent Orange, the defoliant used by the United States in the Vietnam War. "It's the best known and it's pretty toxic. In the old Soviet Union, they would have studied these chemicals in detail. They may well know more about the acute effects of dioxin poisoning than we do," said Dr John Henry, one of Britian's top toxicologists.

Since acute dioxin poisoning was almost unheard of in the West, nobody would have recognised the symptoms and tested for dioxin had Mr Yushchenko died, he said.

The report also notes that "doctors confirmed that Mr Yushchenko was poisoned with dioxon, probably given to him in a creamy soup". We should know who supplied it soon enough:

Quote:

Yesterday's results could reveal exactly where the dioxin came from by identifying the isomers of the chemicals used, Dr Henry said. "You could pinpoint it to a certain country, even a certain laboratory," he said. The results will be handed to Ukrainian prosecutors and lawmakers who have reopened an investigation.

For now, however, it appears to be Yushchenko himself who is sitting on the information. The head of one of the three laboratories that has identified the (same) dioxin "refused to reveal the name":

Quote:

"The results match very well. They are definite," he said. "We just need to know what the family wants us to do.

He said Mr Yushchenko's wife had called Michael Zimpfer, the head of the Rudolfinerhaus clinic in Vienna where her husband was treated, to ask that the results be kept secret until after the election.

Yet even while Yushchenko "has forbidden [the medical experts] from revealing the results to avoid influencing the repeat of his presidential run-off", according to the article, he also "said for the first time that he was sure he was poisoned at a dinner with the head of the Ukrainian Security Sevice, Igor Smeshko [..] the night he fell ill."

Thats a bit weird - keep the data a secret so as not to influence the election, but in the meantime assert the identity of who did it?

All quotes from "Yushchenko guards secret ingredient of his poison soup", by Jeremy Page.

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Thats a bit weird - keep the data a secret so as not to influence the election, but in the meantime assert the identity of who did it?
----------
Trying to guess a good motive. Way odd.

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dlowan wrote:

Did this stuff get posted here already?

It's from Salon.com (and you have to pay - so no url will help.

"AP: Yushchenko shows record Dioxin level

By Emma Ross

Dec. 15, 2004 | London -- New tests reveal Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko's blood contains the second-highest level of dioxin poisoning ever recorded in a human -- more than 6,000 times the normal concentration, according to the expert analyzing the samples.

Abraham Brouwer, professor of environmental toxicology at the Free University in Amsterdam, where the blood samples were sent for analysis, said they contained about 100,000 units of dioxin per gram of blood fat.

However, the concentration could prove to be even higher, or lower, once results are in later this week from a more definitive test, said Arnold Schechter, a specialist in dioxin analysis from the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas.

This may be the source for Lash's misquote.

6,000 times the NORMAL concentration of dioxin in human blood - nothing about what the fatal amount is.

The person who had more than Yuschenko is still walking around, too.

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It must be, because I can't find 6 times over...

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Lash wrote:

Thats a bit weird - keep the data a secret so as not to influence the election, but in the meantime assert the identity of who did it?
----------
Trying to guess a good motive. Way odd.

Hmmm - mebbe its signature was neither Russian, nor likely to have been in hi sopponents' hands - without supply from another source entirely???

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A jealous wannabe in his inner circle?

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<shrugs> Or it could be "the fog of war", so to say ... its a chaotic time, wouldnt be the first time that Yushchenko or his campaign is going one direction one moment, another the next ...

It could even be the article itself - in the intro it has the bit where it says he "has forbidden [the medical experts] from revealing the results", but further down the only specifics we get is that of the Amsterdam researcher saying that Yushchenko's wife called the Viennese researcher to say not to release it ... hearsay ...

Still, if they do know so specifically, I dont see why Yushchenko shouldnt give the green light. The 'not wanting to influence the election' bit seems a bit weak, seeing how he's himself already publicly 'outing' the perpetrators (and besides, wouldnt it be one of those things you'd want to know before making your choice on who to vote for?)

My guess: the details will indeed be released before the election, and what we're seeing now is just random dissonance from day to day.

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A wish and a prayer for the Ukrainian democrats, please

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