Ray wrote:Ah, but you see, there are so many factors that you can not even calculate the correct probability of what could occur. In the event of a war, lots of people's lives are affected and their actions would have been different than what their actions are if there isn't a war. In the long run, every actions stems from previous actions and thus if the universe were to be eternal or long lasting than one can not even remotely calculate the correct probability.
First of all, I would say that as time goes on the effects usually become negligable. For example, how much does the Mongolian conquest affect me right now? Not very much. Sure, there is a chance that long-term effects can be great, but that is the whole reason why is use probability. There is a probability that long-term effects will not be great.
Furthermore, if we really cannot base ethics on effects, it seems like these things would be true: There would be no point to economics or science. Every government policy should be based on principle instead of reality. Say this policy might reduce poverty. Well, maybe it will now, but who knows, it could be really damaging in the long run.
Or how about global warming, or pollution? It seems like we should not care about the effects of such things, because they could turn out for good in the end. Sure, if we can find a principle to oppose them we should, but there is no point in using science to find out the actual effects of this pollution, because we really cannot determine whether they will end up being good or bad.
How about rasing the interest rate? It seems like it would be very hard to find a priciple to determine whether or not to do this if we cannot take effects into consideration.