1

# George vs John

Wed 27 Oct, 2004 04:38 pm
Next week are the presidential elections in America.
• Topic Stats
• Top Replies
Type: Discussion • Score: 1 • Views: 852 • Replies: 9
No top replies

markr

1
Wed 27 Oct, 2004 06:47 pm
It's a zero sum game, so unless each party is making different assumptions about the probabilities of the possible outcomes, your expected profit should equal their combined expected losses.
- Is Joe making a 5 to 1 bet with you, and is Gary making a 3 to 1 bet with you?
- Who is calculating the expected profits, and what probabilities have been assigned to each of the possible outcomes?
For example:
If Joe is calculating his expected profit based on 5-1 odds and he makes a 5-1 bet with you, his expected profit is 0. Likewise for Gary.
If your expected profit is based on 1-1 odds, your expected profit is twice what you bet Joe plus what you bet Gary.
Either a negative bet was placed, or you bet them each nothing.

If all expected profits are calculated based on 1-1 odds, with positive bets they both expect to lose and you expect to win.
0 Replies

whimsical

1
Wed 3 Nov, 2004 04:46 pm
Sorry mark,

But I made a mistake. Joe expects 5 to 3 that George Bush will win, instead of 5 to 1.

Whim
0 Replies

Tryagain

1
Wed 3 Nov, 2004 05:32 pm
Featured: George vs John

"Joe expects"

Who the hell is Joe? My money is on George. :wink:
0 Replies

markr

1
Thu 4 Nov, 2004 12:58 am
No matter what the odds are, your expected profit is -1 times the sum of their expected profits. For them to be equal, they would both have to be zero.

I'm still confused.
0 Replies

markr

1
Thu 4 Nov, 2004 12:59 am
Tryagain wrote:
Featured: George vs John

Who the hell is Joe? My money is on George. :wink:

You say that now... :wink:
0 Replies

Tryagain

1
Thu 4 Nov, 2004 05:31 am
Through experimentation, I have deduced that ones odds of winning are greatly enhanced by placing the wager after the result is known.
0 Replies

whimsical

1
Thu 4 Nov, 2004 06:42 am
0 Replies

tiger12

1
Tue 16 Nov, 2004 07:09 am
??????

A more educated strategy is to fully take advantage of the arbitrage instead of partially taking advantage of it.

Example: Bet Joe \$12 to his \$20 (3/5) that Kerry wins, and bet Gary \$12 to his \$36 (1/3) that Bush wins.

Bush wins, you win \$24, Kerry wins, you win \$8.

In fact, bet as much as you can with each of them.

Now, if you insist on giving them better odds than they are offering, then bet \$1300 to \$1900 with each, then your "guaranteed" profit is \$600 (eventhough it could be infinite) and their's are \$100 and \$500 (\$600 total) respectively.

I am not sure how this is considered a riddle, but hey, what do I know?
0 Replies

blueveinedthrobber

1
Tue 16 Nov, 2004 07:30 am
I always prefered John to George...and now it's a moot point because it's down to Paul and Ringo.....
0 Replies

### Related Topics

Alternative Einstein's riddle answer - Discussion by cedor
Urgent !!! Puzzle / Riddle...Plz helpp - Question by zuzusheryl
Bottle - Question by Megha
"The World's Hardest Riddle" - Discussion by maxlovesmarie
Hard Riddle - Question by retsgned
Riddle Time - Question by Teddy Isaiah
riddle me this (easy) - Question by gree012
Riddle - Question by georgio7
Trick Question I think! - Question by sophocles
Answer my riddle - Question by DanDMan52

1. Forums
2. » George vs John