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News & discussion on house and senate races

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Oct, 2006 03:24 pm
Laughing

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Oct, 2006 03:48 pm
POLITICAL JUNKIE ALERT
Here are the Senate races that are leaning Dem or leaning Rep or are tossups. THE GAME HERE IS FOR YOU TO PICK THE WINNERS. You can change your vote if a candidate does something really stupid.

(An * means that the candidate is either the incumbent or is seeking to replace someone from the same party).

OHIO Brown (d) vs DeWine* (r)
MISSOURI Talent* (r) vs McGaskill (d)
MONTANA Burns* (r) vs Testor (d)
NEW JERSEY Mendendez* (d) vs Kean (r)
TENNESSEE Ford (d) vs Corker* (r)
VIRGINIA Allen* (r) vs Webb (d)
RHODE ISLAND Chaffee* (r) vs Whitehouse (d)
PENNSYLVANIA Santuram* (r) vs Casey (d)
ARIZONA Kyl* (r) vs Pederson (d)
WASHINGTON Cantwell* (d) vs McGavick (r)
MINNESOTA Klobuchar* (d) vs Kennedy (r)
MICHIGAN Stabenow* (d) vs Bouchard (r)
MARYLAND Cardin* (d) vs Steele (r)
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Oct, 2006 04:14 pm
I am thinking that one of you computer smart folks could move the above post out of here and into a new topic with a clever headline.. I would prefer that it be out of here. Thanks. -johnboy-
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Oct, 2006 05:30 pm
Cyclo posted it in this new thread.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 12:27 pm
A maverick hardcore conservative may be too rough-mannered even for Idaho ... giving the Dems an unexpected outside chance there.

Quote:
GOP uneasy about Idaho House race[/size]

Yahoo! News
Thu Oct 19

For years, Idaho's most endangered species have been bald eagles, sockeye salmon and Democrats.

President Bush carried the state's massive 1st Congressional District with 69 percent of the vote in 2004. Rep. C.L. "Butch" Otter, R-Idaho, who is running for governor, breezed to three terms in the House.

Yet it's a nettlesome year for Republicans. The 20-county 1st District, which spans western Idaho from the alpine lakes on the Canadian border to the sagebrush desert on the Nevada line, might tone down the Gem State's ruby-red reputation by replacing Otter with a light-blue Democrat.

Larry Grant, a former executive at Micron Technology Inc., the state's largest private employer, is the Democrat in the race. His opponent is conservative state Rep. Bill Sali, a rock 'n' roll drumming and soul-singing Republican.

The contest is one of a handful of late-breaking races that complicate the big picture for Republicans who suddenly have to spend resources in heavily GOP districts around the country. Clear evidence of the party's concerns came Tuesday when the National Republican Congressional Committee spent $135,442 for ads against Grant in the Idaho district.

The backlash from Sali's sharp attacks on his competitors in a May primary and the Republican scandals in Washington may propel Grant to the party's first win in the district since 1992 [..].

Sali echoes Idaho's deep conservatism with a libertarian dash. He wants to build a fence on the Mexico border, abolish the Internal Revenue Service and the Education Department, rein in the Environmental Protection Agency, bomb Iran's nuclear sites and eventually revoke the USA Patriot Act.

Whether Sali's stances will rally the GOP base or mute enthusiasm from middle-of-the-road voters may have less impact than the rocky reputation he brings from 16 years in the Idaho legislature. [..]

He once refused to cut short a floor speech linking breast cancer to abortion, prompting the Republican House speaker to call him "an idiot" and briefly strip him of his committee assignments. [..]

Idaho's only other congressman, Rep. Mike Simpson (news, bio, voting record), R-Idaho, who served with Sali in the state House, once threatened to throw him from a window.

"I have a good working relationship with Mike Simpson and I'm looking forward to working with him," Sali said. "I didn't get thrown out of the window, so ..."

Simpson marshaled the party rank-and-file behind Sali after he won the six-way primary with 26 percent of the vote. Simpson embraced Sali at a post-primary fundraiser [..].

Sali says he will not moderate his philosophy. At a picnic last month he said, "Yeah, I'm hard to get along with because I don't like liberal politics." But he acknowledged he will have to cool down. [..]

In a campaign advertisement, Sali smiles throughout while leaning on a pickup truck and talking to cowboys, joining a white-haired man on a park bench and fishing with his grandchildren. Despite the campaign's subdued tone, it is Sali's partisan vigor that could mobilize core conservatives.

"It's his style that I like," Vincente Moreno said at a Sali picnic as the candidate sang Free's "All Right Now" with a long-haired country rock band. "He's a pro-lifer. He's for cutting taxes. He stands up."

Grant thinks Sali will create a fissure among Republicans. He has campaigned as a Western maverick with business sense, touting a platform of spending cuts, a raise in the minimum wage and support for Idaho's wilderness.

"My problem is name ID," Grant said. "His problem is he has to convince his natural constituency that he is not as extreme as he seems to be. But I didn't choose Bill Sali to run against. The Republican Party did and that's their problem now." [..]
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 12:31 pm
Bad news for the Republicans in Florida, who had thought they found a way to get round the Foley problem in House district
16:

0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 12:37 pm
Few days ago already this was - but damn, how fast have things turned! What a stunning drop it's been!

Quote:
Bush Approval: Three new polls, Trend at 35.8%

Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Political Arithmetik

http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/6836/currentbushapproval20061015to9.png

No time to write this up. Come back for that later. Bottom line: CNN at 36%, Gallup and Zogby at 37%. Trend estimate falls to 35.8% This is a stunning decline that doesn't yet seem to have reached bottom. Can the White House do anything to stop it?

http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/6312/fourpanelapproval20061015qg5.png
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 12:38 pm
Wow!
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 12:55 pm
Mystery Pollster lists the 14 House districts that are currently held by Republican, where the Democrat has a lead beyond the margin of error, in the non-partisan surveys conducted since late August (the number of which is given in parentheses):

Arizona-08 (3)
Colorado-07 (5)
Florida-16 (1)
Indiana-02 (4)
Indiana-08 (4)
Indiana-09 (4)
New Mexico-01 (5 since 9/15)
New York-24 (1)
New York-26 (4)
North Carolina-08 (1)
North Carolina-11 (3)
Ohio 15 (1)
Ohio-18 (2)
Pennsylvania-10 (2)

What strikes me is how geographically concentrated this cutting edge of the switch to Democrats is. Of these 14 districts, 8 are in the band of states New York - Pennsylvania - Ohio - Indiana; 5 (or over a third) are in either Ohio or Indiana.

Back in September, the Washington Post Fix blog started a reporting "tour" from the areas surrounding the Ohio River - the Ohio River Ramble. It looks like they were right to identify that part of the country as the ground zero of these elections.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 12:59 pm
Quote:
Approval of Congress Falls to New Low

Political Wire
October 18, 2006

"Public support for Republicans' control of the U.S. Congress has eroded to its lowest point since the party took over 12 years ago" according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. "And with just 19 days until the midterm elections, both President George W. Bush and his party are in worse shape with voters than Democrats were in the October before they lost their House and Senate majorities in 1994."

The shows that "voters' approval of Congress has fallen to 16% from 20% since early September, while disapproval has risen to 75% from 65%. That 16% approval statistically matches Congress's lowest point in the 17 years the Journal and NBC have polled, set in April 1992 at the height of a congressional scandal involving members' overdrafts from their House bank."

"By 52% to 37%, voters say they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control Congress after the Nov. 7 election. That wide 15-point Democratic advantage is another record in the history of the Journal/NBC poll."
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 01:11 pm
Montana's Senator Burns comes up with the latest - and perhaps most surreal - excuse so far re Bush and the war in Iraq: Bush does have a plan about solving the situation there - he's just not telling us. It's a secret, you see.

Quote:
Tester, Burns spar in Billings over future of war in Iraq

18 October 2006
The Missoulian

[..] For nearly a year, [Democratic challenger] Tester has called on Bush to develop a plan to remove U.S. troops from Iraq. Burns has criticized Tester's position as "cut and run." [..]

"I said we've got to win," Burns said. "He (Tester) wants us to pull out. He wants everyone to know our plan. That's not smart.

"He says our president don't have a plan. I think he's got one. He's not going to tell everyone in the world."

Many in the crowd, which was dominated by Tester supporters, openly laughed at Burns' claim that Bush has a plan. [..]

Tester said he is not for "telling our opponents what we're going to do. The fact is, we don't know what we're going to do."

Replied Burns: "We're not going to tell you what our plan is, Jon, because you're just going to go out and blow it."

Immediately following the debate, Tester campaign spokesman Matt McKenna likened Burns' claim of a Bush plan to President Nixon's secret plan in 1972 to end the war in Vietnam.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 01:26 pm
The Congressional Quarterly site has started to provide round-ups by state; probably a more overviewable approach than the articles about individual districts, which it is also still publishing, and many of which I've been excerpting here.

Here's the state overview on Ohio: Ohio Roundup: Republicans, Especially DeWine, See Fortunes Fade.

It includes four ratings changes made last Tuesday:

- Mike DeWine's Senate race against Sherrod Brown moves from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic;

- The gubernatorial race between Ted Strickland and Ken Blackwell moves from Leans Democratic to the firmer category of Democrat Favored.

- The Cincinnati area's 2nd Congressional District race, which pits first-term Republican Rep. Jean Schmidt against Democrat Victoria Wulsin, moves from Republican Favored to the more highly competitive Leans Republican category;

- The 12th District in central Ohio, in and around Columbus, where 79-year-old former Congressman Bob Shamansky is challenging three-term Republican incumbent Pat Tiberi, moves from Safe Republican to Republican Favored. That means that Tiberi remains a heavy favorite to win re-election, but there is now a real outside chance of an upset.

The 12th district is just one of many where competitiveness was increased through the use of the "rubber stamp" theme - accusing the incumbent of being nothing but a "rubber stamp" for President Bush. A testimony to just how unpopular the man has become.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 02:24 pm
Here's the CQ state roundup for Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Roundup: Fitzpatrick's Advantage Eroded

It includes two rating changes:

- The race for Governor (Rendell vs Swann) was moved to Democrat Favored from Leans Democratic;

- The contest in the 8th Congressional District (Fitzpatrick vs Murphy), in Philadelphia's suburbs, has been moved to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 02:31 pm
Golly.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 21 Oct, 2006 03:15 pm
There was mention made last week about how the Repub National Committee (RNC) and the DNC were reallocating their remaining campaign money. The RNC, it was concluded, was going into a defensive mode, spending on seats already held by their party. The DNC, meanwhile (smelling blood?) was targeting races that had been written off a few months ago.
The RNC suspended monetary support to Senator DeWine in Ohio. No big deal since he is self-financing his campaign to a large extent and has a lot of money available to be spent.

Money left to be spent, when you look at the various races, is still huge. But it is a large amount of money chasing a small number of undecided voters.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 22 Oct, 2006 05:15 am
JPB wrote:
I'm starting to watch the IL 10th Congressional District race between Dan Seals and Mark Kirk. ...
Quote:
...
Those would be the northwest suburban 8th District, where Democrat Melissa Bean is trying to show her upset of GOP war horse Philip Crane two years ago was no fluke, and the west suburban 6th District, where Democrats are hoping to take advantage of the retirement of GOP veteran Henry Hyde.
...


Today's Chicago Tribune has a longer report about GOP bastions under siege here

Quote:
Once finely balanced between the city and the suburbs, the political scales of metropolitan Chicago have been tipping ever more Democratic, and fierce congressional races in two long-safe Republican bastions now are putting that trend to an important new test.

With 82-year-old U.S. Rep. Henry Hyde stepping aside, the west suburban 6th Congressional District seat he has been re-elected to easily since the Watergate era is now very much up for grabs, according to a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll.

In the northwest suburban 8th Congressional District, the survey found strong re-election support for freshman Democrat Melissa Bean, suggesting that her 2004 upset of 35-year Republican U.S. Rep. Phil Crane was no fluke.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Oct, 2006 05:32 am
nimh

You'll want to look at this piece...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-10-22-legislatures_x.htm
0 Replies
 
SierraSong
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Oct, 2006 08:53 am
The GOP will hold the House.
The GOP will hold the Senate.
Lieberman will win in CT.
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Oct, 2006 09:16 am
SierraSong wrote:
The GOP will hold the House.
The GOP will hold the Senate.
Lieberman will win in CT.


and you base these statements on.....?
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 23 Oct, 2006 12:46 pm
SierraSong wrote:
The GOP will hold the House.
The GOP will hold the Senate.
Lieberman will win in CT.

$50 that they won't hold the House. Deal?
0 Replies
 
 

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