Sierra:
I will do so. Thank you for the link.
I'm starting to watch the IL 10th Congressional District race between Dan Seals and Mark Kirk. This Crain's Chicago Business article is from June, but I can tell from the number of 'Seals for Congress' signs going up on front lawns that he has quite a bit of support.
The 'Cook Political Report' in the article has Kirk maintaining his seat, but it appears that he's lost at least some of his support locally.
Cook Political Report
From the link above...
"While the national environment has looked increasingly awful for Republicans all year, it was once hard to see how Democrats could net the 15 seats needed for a House victory, and it was extremely difficult to see them thread the needle for a Senate win. While Democratic hopes of winning a Senate majority still look decidedly uphill, over the last three months we've seen more and more GOP House seats move into the vulnerable column or worse, for them, into extremely vulnerable status.
Today, 20 GOP House seats are rated tossups or worse; there are no longer any Democratic seats that look that endangered. Fifteen more GOP seats are competitive, but with Republicans still given an edge; nine Democratic seats are in comparable terms on their side of the chart."
I heard the first Mark Kirk radio ad yesterday. He was emphasizing his "independence" (a word I think was used three or four times in the 30-second ad), including his vote in favor of funding stem cell research. Clearly, Kirk is taking this race very seriously (I don't think I heard an ad for him until the eve of the 2004 election) and he is running away from the Bush administration -- a smart move considering that his district voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. My gut feeling is that Kirk will win in November, but it will be a closer race than he has ever faced before.
The race in the Illinois 6th congressional district is still up for grabs. Henry Hyde's seat is being contested by GOP state senator Peter Roskam and Democratic political neophyte and Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth. Duckworth has some negatives going into the campaign: she was handpicked by Rahm Emanuel for this district, bypassing Christine Cegelis, who ran a symbolic but futile campaign against Hyde in 2004 and who was, by all accounts, expecting the party to pay her back by supporting her in 2006. When the party backed Duckworth instead, a lot of Cegalis supporters were miffed, and I haven't seen Duckworth repairing many bridges with that faction of the party. Roskam, on the other hand, has social positions that are increasingly out of synch with the district. For instance, he not only opposes federal funding for stem cell research, he opposes all stem cell research. This race is getting more national attention as the campaign draws to a close, and was featured in the most recent issue of Esquire magazine as the most crucial congressional race in the country.
In the Illinois 8th congressional district, some pundits still rank this race as a toss-up, although incumbent freshman Democrat Mellissa Bean has shown herself a strong campaigner. As is a growing trend across the nation, the Chicago suburbs are becoming more Democratic as the baby boomers who fled the cities to become respectable, homeowning Republicans are making way for their kids, who are more secular, more tolerant, and more liberal. Four years ago, none of these three districts would have been in play for the Democrats: now, there's a chance that they'll sweep all three races.
I supported Kirk the first time out, but not this time. His "slam dunk" position on the O'hare expansion infuriated me and I called him and told him so. Seals is working the bbq circuit and has numerous gatherings scheduled in homes around the North Shore. I've been invited to three different ones. He's got strong Democratic support and is beginning to look appealing to the swing vote (me). I think your gut feeling is probably correct, but I'd like to see it go the other way.
Its funny. A while ago, some of us on the left were gloating about Bush's dismal approval ratings. A conservative here (Sierra?) responded that, well, its not Bush who'll be up for elections this November. The state results will be determined by local issues and personalities, so we should look at state-by-state polls.
Now, of course, some conservatives are gloating that Bush's approval ratings are going back up. But there's little to notice of a Republican recovery in those state-by-state polls.
Cases in question:
Rasmussen Reports is shifting the Rhode Island Senate race from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat"
Quote:Rhode Island Senate: Whitehouse (D) 51%; Chafee (R) 43%
Mon Sep 18
The GOP establishment forcefully backed Republican Lincoln Chafee in the primary over a more conservative and arguably less-electable Republican. But, perhaps damaged by having to struggle so long for the nomination, it is not clear how electable Senator Chafee remains. The incumbent now lags his Democratic challenger 43% to 51%.
This is the fourth Rasmussen Reports election poll in row showing former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse with the lead-and the lead is growing.
Rasmussen Reports is shifting the Ohio Senate race from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat"
Quote:Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 47% DeWine (R) 41%
September 18
In Ohio's edge-of-seat Senate race, Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown now claims a six-point lead of 47% to 41% over Republican Senator Mike DeWine.
The tables have turned slowly but dramatically in this hard-fought campaign. Last November, the incumbent had the edge in the Rasmussen Reports' first Ohio poll for Election 2006. DeWine sustained a lead through April but Brown has now held a lead for three polls in a row (four of the last five). Last month, like the preceding month, Brown's lead was statistically insignificant. But this latest poll confirms that the electoral winds have clearly shifted in the Ohio Senate race. [..]
Each candidate fares well with his base. But Brown has a big edge now with both unaffiliated voters and moderates. [..] Voters may be seeing DeWine as part and parcel of a GOP establishment they're ready to pink-slip. Republican Governor Bob Taft has been indicted on corruption charges, and his approval rating is still in the dumpster: only 6% strongly approve of his job performance while 53% "strongly disapprove." [..]
Rasmussen Reports is shifting the Montana Senate race from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Democrat"
Quote:Montana Senate: Tester By Nine - Tester (D) 52% Burns (R) 43%
September 18
The latest Rasmussen Reports election survey in Montana shows Democrat Jon Tester leading incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns 52% to 43% (see crosstabs). The candidates were tied at 47% in August's survey. The current results represent Tester's biggest lead ever. In the fall of 2005, Burns had a double digit lead. That collapsed by January as the Abramoff story became big news. Since then, for the bulk of the campaign, Tester and Burns have generally been within a few points of each other.
The incumbent Senator Burns came under attack this week by television ads sponsored by Campaign Money Watch that criticize his links to the big oil companies. The ads, along with another from the Tester camp that tracks Burns' recent slip-ups on the campaign trail, were posted to the popular Web site YouTube. [..]
Tester has added nearly 10 points to his base vote; 92% of Democrats now say they'll vote for him in November, up from 84% last month. He's also pulling votes from 20% of Republicans. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of GOP voters are supporting Burns.
A majority of voters (54%) have an unfavorable opinion of Burns, with more than one-third of respondents (37%) reporting "very unfavorable" views of the incumbent. Both those numbers are up two points from our last survey. Tester earns favorable reviews from 55%. [..]
Meanwhile, in Maryland Republican Senate candidate Steele is trying to win votes by pretending he's not Republican:
Quote:Maryland Senate: New ad for Republican Michael Steele makes no mention of party affiliation and takes lighter tone, with Steele noting that he loves puppies, even if upcoming negative ads say otherwise, the
Washington Post notes.
Regarding the post from Nimh about George Allen of Virginia (Johnboy's home state).
The article you cited was factually correct, but it had an obvious anti-Allen slant to it.
I watched that debate. I am not at all sure that the reporter's question was at all germane, but Mr Allen's response was, I think, telling.
For the second time in a month or two Mr Allen has shown himself to have
(do you know this phrase?) a very short fuse.
Mr Allen fancies himself as a presidential candidate in 2008, painting himself as a staunch suppoter of Mr Bush.
Mr Bush's low popularity and Mr Allen's gaffes seem to me to have doomed his presidential aspirations.
Having siad that, the very, very unofficial johnboy poll has Mr Allen ahead of Mr Webb in the Senate race.
Allen can't run away from the picture of him and all the racists.
Cycloptichorn
Mr Allen certainly has some explaining to do about his youthful indiscretions re his adherance to symbols of racism long after many of the rest of us in the south had decided to try to put that aside.
I am a sixty year old life-time liberal redneck. We have a long way to go, but we have done reasonably well, perhaps as well as other parts of the country.
People like Mr Allen? They will fade away.
I have never talked about this much, but when realjohnboy was a young lad, perhaps the same age as Mr Allen, johnboy got drafted and sent to Vietnam. Mr Allen and many people like Mr Allen didn't. There were so many loopholes. ****, half of the players on our championship high-school football team got medical exemptions. And Mr Allen had a valid excuse, I am sure.
I never felt bitter about any of that. It was, as the old expression goes, an experience I wouldn't repeat if you offered me a million dollars, but I wouldn't forget that experience for a million dollars either.
We are coming to an end of an era. People like Mr McCain and Mr Webb (who is Mr Allen's opponent-- 40 (!) year military man) are some of the few folks left with political clout. I fear the loss of institutional memory.
realjohnboy wrote:Mr Allen certainly has some explaining to do about his youthful indiscretions re his adherance to symbols of racism long after many of the rest of us in the south had decided to try to put that aside.
Thank you for your takes, Realjohn, very good to hear them.
Just on a note of detail here, the picture I think Cyclo is talking about is one taken when he was already a politician, in 1996: the one he asked for with him and those three leaders of the white supremacist Council of Conservative Citizens (CCC).
And WHO the hell said Republicans can't do nuance?!
Quote:"I still had a ham sandwich for lunch. And my mother made great pork chops." -- Virginia Sen. George Allen, explaining how news that his grandfather was Jewish is "just an interesting nuance to my background."
The Plank, also, summarizing:
Wow, that was quick. In the span of just 24 hours George Allen went from
criticizing questions about whether his mother was Jewish as "aspersions" to
embracing his Jewish heritage to, now,
calling his critics anti-Semites.
Reality check.
For now, the odds are still against the Democrats even winning the
House, let alone the Senate - and thats nothing to do with the recent Bush uptick.
The important distinction in reading the analyses here being between the actual momentum in the state (and at least until recently, national) polls toward the Democrats - which has been notable and consistent, but as of yet not one that would turn House or Senate over to them; and the extrapolations of this momentum into an
expected - but not yet polled - '94-like Democratic 'wave' in October.
Slate's mathematician on the odds the Democrats will flip the House
Allen again:
On 20 September, CQPolitics.com changed its rating on the Virginia Senate race a notch from Republican Favored to merely Leans Republican.
In the still rather unlikely case that Allen actually loses, I'll choose to see it also as the defeat of a political style that had him telling the state Republican convention in 1994:
"Let's enjoy knocking their soft teeth down their whining throats."
blatham wrote:And WHO the hell said Republicans can't do nuance?!
Quote:"I still had a ham sandwich for lunch. And my mother made great pork chops." -- Virginia Sen. George Allen, explaining how news that his grandfather was Jewish is "just an interesting nuance to my background."
Somehow, all this confederate-flag-waving, Indian-insulting, poking-fun-at-Jews business seems a little too demonstrative to be genuine. Let me guess: Allen was born to a Jewish mother and an Indian father -- in Boston, or maybe Seattle. He moved to the South in mid-life, too old to acquire Southern manners genuinely. So, instead, he acquired some South Park parody version of Southern manners, and acquired it with the zeal of a convert.
(I was very tempted to google this before hitting submit, but I'm feeling lucky today. I'll just hit "submit".)
thomas
If it appears on google, it will only because because your take was notable enough to spread with the speed of a prairie grassfire.
nimh wrote:Reality check.
For now, the odds are still against the Democrats even winning the
House, let alone the Senate - and thats nothing to do with the recent Bush uptick.
The important distinction in reading the analyses here being between the actual momentum in the state (and at least until recently, national) polls toward the Democrats - which has been notable and consistent, but as of yet not one that would turn House or Senate over to them; and the extrapolations of this momentum into an
expected - but not yet polled - '94-like Democratic 'wave' in October.
Slate's mathematician on the odds the Democrats will flip the House
From the link: "If you're a Democrat, you've got every right to be hopeful this fall. But if somebody gives you the chance to bet on the GOP, get your wallet out."
Eight weeks is the same as forever in having anything better than 'hopeful' for a 15 seat swing in a mid-term election. I'll take hopeful at this point.
Closing out this discussion on George Allen of Virginia. A bit of background: His daddy was a football coach. He coached the professional team (NFL) known as the Washington Redskins. I am not making this up. They were pretty successful and son George, after a less then stellar career playing football at UVA, which really stank at the time, rode on his Daddy's coat-tails using name recognition to get to be governor and than senator.
