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Would Bernie have won?

 
 
Reply Wed 9 Nov, 2016 09:32 pm
This may be too soon for some after this abrasive election, but it's currently the most intriguing political thought I am exploring. Would Bernie have beaten Trump?

On one hand he prevailed against Hillary precisely in some of the states that she did most poorly in against Trump, and he was also an "outsider" in an election defined by repudiation of the establishment while Hillary is the ultimate insider.

On the other hand he was a "socialist" (though not sure if that matters if a pussy-grabbing guy with no experience, no tact, and breaking all kinds of "requirements" like releasing tax returns can win) but that was about all the baggage he had, there were no email surprises to work with either.

In nearly everything but foreign policy I am much closer to Hillary than Bernie but at one point (definitely was not an early believer, this election surprised me at every stage) I thought he was a stronger candidate to go against Trump and this thought is nagging at me now.

I know that the Bernie/Hillary campaign wounds are still fresh so I ask that we all try to avoid bringing too much of that baggage to this discussion.
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Type: Discussion • Score: 12 • Views: 2,603 • Replies: 47

 
Krumple
 
  0  
Reply Wed 9 Nov, 2016 09:45 pm
@Robert Gentel,
If the worse thing people could say about bernie was he is a socialist, then just on the grounds where mud flys, he would have definately gained more than hillary, if we are speaking about scandals.

Hillary basically kicked every millennial in the face when she made comments about them living in their parents basements. If he would have got the nomination there wouldnt have been all the talk about the DNC underhanded tactics.The Dems would have looked pure and faultless. So the focus would have turned to republican support for Trump which was rockey this whole journey.

I wonder what Trump said to Pence after he wanted to pull a way from Trump.

It would have been slow but one strength Bernie has is rallying power. He would have made this a rock concert staring some old guy.

Bernie woulda grabbed the black vote like Hillary did. But there wouldnt have been this abandonment issue which happened after Bernie was robbed of fair nomination voting.
Robert Gentel
 
  4  
Reply Wed 9 Nov, 2016 09:54 pm
@Krumple,
Krumple wrote:
Bernie woulda grabbed the black vote like Hillary did.


That's actually one of his weakest areas and I'm not sure he would have had as much support there as Hillary does.
Krumple
 
  1  
Reply Wed 9 Nov, 2016 10:03 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:

Krumple wrote:
Bernie woulda grabbed the black vote like Hillary did.


That's actually one of his weakest areas and I'm not sure he would have had as much support there as Hillary does.


You might be right but I just dont see black voters going Trump over Bernie.
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Wed 9 Nov, 2016 10:05 pm
@Krumple,
Staying home is always an option.
0 Replies
 
Debra Law
 
  2  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 01:08 am
I believe Bernie Sanders had a far better chance of winning in the general election than Hillary ever had. He wasn't a wolf in sheep's clothing like Obama. He was the real deal. Would he have won? I think so.
Robert Gentel
 
  3  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 01:21 am
@Debra Law,
Really hard to say but no Comey surprise at least is enough to make a difference and a 1% difference for Clinton swings it.
Debra Law
 
  3  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 01:42 am
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:

Really hard to say but no Comey surprise at least is enough to make a difference and a 1% difference for Clinton swings it.


I think Hillary was destined to lose. It may bring some comfort to some to try to make excuses for her loss, i.e., but for this negative or that negative, maybe Clinton could have squeaked out a win. But she didn't win. The question is, "Would Bernie have won"?

And I think he would have won:

You posted a chart showing the Democrats have lost millions of voters since 2008: http://able2know.org/topic/352812-1#post-6301371

I think Bernie probably would have won in a landslide, just like Obama did in 2008.

Unlike Obama, however, Bernie is a true progressive.
roger
 
  3  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 02:03 am
@Debra Law,
I think too many of us looked at the two almost daily and asked which was worse for the country. This election marks only the second time I voted for a Democrat, and the other was in a state election maybe twenty years. Other people may have come to a different conclusion, and it was close enough that I don't criticize them.

There were others with other motivations, of course.

ETA To be on topic, I doubt Bernie would have won. I don't think anyone believed he could deliver on some of the promises or ideas he was putting forth. Okay, but I think he also knew better.
Debra Law
 
  2  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 02:14 am
@roger,
roger wrote:

ETA To be on topic, I doubt Bernie would have won. I don't think anyone believed he could deliver on some of the promises or ideas he was putting forth. Okay, but I think he also knew better.


I don't think anyone believes Donald Trump can or will deliver on some of his promises or ideas he was putting forth. But, somehow he won the election.
Debra Law
 
  3  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 02:36 am
Bernie said this over a year ago:

"Let me be very clear. In my view, Democrats will not retain the White House, will not regain the Senate, will not gain the House and will not be successful in dozens of governor’s races unless we run a campaign which generates excitement and momentum and which produces a huge voter turnout.

With all due respect, and I do not mean to insult anyone here, that will not happen with politics as usual. The same old, same old will not be successful.
The people of our country understand that — given the collapse of the American middle class and the grotesque level of income and wealth inequality we are experiencing — we do not need more establishment politics or establishment economics.

We need a political movement which is prepared to take on the billionaire class and create a government which represents all Americans, and not just corporate America and wealthy campaign donors.
In other words, we need a movement which takes on the economic and political establishment, not one which is part of it."

~ Bernie Sanders August 28th, 2015
0 Replies
 
roger
 
  4  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 02:36 am
@Debra Law,
As you say, somehow he won the election. He might settle down a little, but I suspect he showed us his true self in the campaign.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  2  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 03:44 am
@Debra Law,
Debra Law wrote:

I believe Bernie Sanders had a far better chance of winning in the general election than Hillary ever had. He wasn't a wolf in sheep's clothing like Obama. He was the real deal.


Anyone who describes themselves as a 'democratic' socialist is not the real deal. Socialists, real socialists, don't feel the need to add any qualifier. True socialism is by definition democratic, so no qualifier is needed. It reminds me of fake democratic regimes like the Democratic People's Republic of Korea or the German Democratic Republic.

To be honest I found him a bit creepy, and some of his supporters were unhinged. If he couldn't win the Democratic primary chances are he wouldn't have convinced a right wing electorate. Although Clinton supporters would have voted for him as opposed to many of Sander's camp who would rather elect a fascist than the person who beat their candidate.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  0  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 07:09 am
Bernie would have won. Who had more passionate followers? Millions of people donated to a political campaign for the first time. He excited young people into the process.

He was hamstrung in the beginning through the efforts of a DNC-colluded media blackout. Had he received fair press, a multitude of additional voters would have been on board, as well.

We would have taken hits re "socialism," but this man walked in truth. He talked quite successfully with traditionally close-minded little evangelicals at Bob Jones U. He listened with respect and compassion to BLM activists, and had an incredible plan to address our concerns about institutional racism.

There was nowhere he wouldn't go, and no group he couldn't talk to. He was smart enough to explain what his brand of socialism is. He had the goodwill and respect of young and old energetic supporters willing to do anything to sweep him into office.

We knew he couldn't pull off everything he espoused, but he answered the call for an end to corruption in politics---and he would have had a crushing mandate to throw the money changers into the streets.

He would have won.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 07:27 am
@Debra Law,
Debra Law wrote:

I don't think anyone believes Donald Trump can or will deliver on some of his promises or ideas he was putting forth. But, somehow he won the election.


I thought the same about Obama.
joefromchicago
 
  5  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 08:33 am
Clinton was the only candidate who could have lost to Trump. That's why it was inevitable the Democrats would nominate her. If the GOP is a clown car, the Democratic Party is a clown car running on four rims. With no steering wheel. On fire.
0 Replies
 
catbeasy
 
  5  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 08:47 am
@Robert Gentel,
Yes!

But let's be clear here, Bernie was a New Deal guy in the style of Roosevelt. The democratic socialist tag is a bit ambiguous. State run control of 'enterprises' where voters have control on how these enterprises are run. Which enterprises? It's likely there wouldn't have been much of a change in what we currently have in that regard with a Bernie Presidency.

In any case, when I saw Hillary debating Trump I couldn't help thinking that Bernie would have thrashed him. No personal baggage for Trump to pounce on. Trump would have had to attack his 'socialism' but would have come across even worse than against Hillary by comparison of ideas.

Plus Bernie is miles ahead of Hillary as a speaker. I found Hillary dry, boring and disingenuous at times, forced. Bernie is the real deal. No wonder Trump didn't want to debate Sanders. Half of Trump's talking points about establishment would have vanished.

Sanders being 'socialist' (as a bad word) is a bit silly. He just wanted the same aggressive approach to social issues as Roosevelt with his New Deal and Johnson in the 60's (which have been slowly but surely unraveled since Reagan).

But unsure how much of that he could have got passed, but having him in the white house sans 'baggage' but with a positive message, positive attitude and a real passion for fixing stuff and an intellect to boot, he would have been miles ahead of Hillary and Trump.

Democrats really screwed themselves on this one..
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 01:15 pm
@McGentrix,
Pretty much any president, really. They affect our lives less than we think they do and less than they claim. Trump is scrubbing off a bunch of his promises from his website (which I actually think is great, they are toxic promises).
catbeasy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 02:03 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Quote:
They affect our lives less than we think they do

I think it depends on what you mean by "less" and whose doing the thinking!

But relatively speaking, I think it depends on who you are. I think in general, middle class folks get less effected by Presidents than the rich and the poor.

I think in general, the poor get thrown a bigger bone when dems are in office than repubs.

Again, this is relatively speaking and is also a statement about how lives are materially effected. If I'm middle class, a president may do something that effects me like raise my taxes, but maybe to me that means I can't afford that new Honda I'm eyeing or take an extra vacation. Maybe I have to be a bit more conscientious with my money..

But for the poor, any hits they take can be devastating to their lives. Conversely, any larger bones may be a great relief.

There's also the atmosphere a President can create. You mentioned toxic promises, how about a toxic zeitgeist? Toxic social atmosphere? Trump threatens to push those social gains of tolerance back to some nether age I don't think it wise to visit. Clinton had her own issues as well, but I think she wasn't near the toxicity level of Trump..

And though we may not be serving in the armed forces, who among us does not get tired and stressed of wars and rumours of wars?

I think the President isn't the only one creating these things, but the current office sitter can either amplify or enervate them.

0 Replies
 
Foofie
 
  2  
Reply Thu 10 Nov, 2016 03:12 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:

This may be too soon for some after this abrasive election, but it's currently the most intriguing political thought I am exploring. Would Bernie have beaten Trump?

On one hand he prevailed against Hillary precisely in some of the states that she did most poorly in against Trump, and he was also an "outsider" in an election defined by repudiation of the establishment while Hillary is the ultimate insider.

On the other hand he was a "socialist" (though not sure if that matters if a pussy-grabbing guy with no experience, no tact, and breaking all kinds of "requirements" like releasing tax returns can win) but that was about all the baggage he had, there were no email surprises to work with either.

In nearly everything but foreign policy I am much closer to Hillary than Bernie but at one point (definitely was not an early believer, this election surprised me at every stage) I thought he was a stronger candidate to go against Trump and this thought is nagging at me now.

I know that the Bernie/Hillary campaign wounds are still fresh so I ask that we all try to avoid bringing too much of that baggage to this discussion.


I believe it was some National Public Radio commentator that explained that Trump won the battleground states because rural Republican voters went to the polls who often did not vote in many elections. What got them to the polls was the issues that this election had: illegal immigrants (open borders), refugees, 2nd Amendment rights, late term abortions, and infringing on Christian values relative to the LGBT community. In effect, those in the battleground states and were "rural" surprisingly "swarmed" (my choice of words) to vote. Pollsters did not count them in the polling, since the pollsters' algorithm is based on prior voting demographics, and these rural folks are usually lackadaisacal voters. And voila, a surprise victory. Therefore, I believe Bernie would not have won. Trump just woke up a demographic that in the past ignored many elections.
 

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