Opposition Wins Elections in Slovenia

Slovenia: A Sea Change in Slovenia
by Andrej Brstovsek
4 October 2004

After 12 years, Slovenia turns right.

LJUBLJANA, Slovenia--After more than a decade of almost continual rule, Slovenia's center-left Liberal Democrats face a spell in opposition in the wake of a surprise defeat in the parliamentary elections on 3 October. For the first time in the country's history, the center-right Slovenian Democrats will be most powerful party in parliament.

Several thousand people gathered in the main square of the capital, Ljubljana, on the evening of the vote, after it became clear that the Slovenian Democrats were heading for 29 percent of the vote and 29 of 90 seats in the parliament. The party's leader, Janez Jansa, a prominent political figure since the war for independence in 1991, said it was time for a better Slovenia and that the country had "stepped onto a new path."

But Jansa may have problems forming a center-right government. His likely partners, New Slovenia and the Slovenian People's Party, received nine and seven seats in the parliament, respectively. That would give a center-right coalition 45 seats, one short of a majority. The Slovenian National Party (SNS), which got 6 seats, could then be the decisive factor in forming a government. Despite its right-wing politics, the party has thrown its support behind center-left governments on occasion in the past.

SNS leader Zmago Jelincic said his party would enter a coalition government. But he has been at odds with Jansa often in the past, and his participation--and the party's sometimes extreme views--could cause problems for the government. Jansa gave no clear indication of whom he sees as possible coalition partners. He might also talk to the center-left United List of Social Democrats, which won 10 seats in parliament, or the Pensioner's Party, which gained four seats. The only party that Jansa excluded as a possible coalition member is the Liberal Democrats (LDS), the dominant party on Slovenia's political stage over the past 12 years.

THE LDS ALL AT SEA

The LDS won 22.8 percent of the vote and 23 seats in the parliament, down from 34 in the 2000 elections. Prime Minister Anton Rop conceded defeat, saying, "We are determined to work hard in opposition." Rop personally lost the most in the election. He took over the party only in late 2002, when Janez Drnovsek, the party's previous leader, resigned as prime minister to become the country's president.

Analysts and politicians are saying that voters may have been fed up with the LDS, which has been in power almost continuously since 1992. The sole exception was in 2000, when a grand LDS-led coalition fell apart, enabling a center-right government to take power for six months before general elections. Some commented on the low profile of Drnovsek, who is still a highly popular political figure. He played only a minor part in the election campaign, perhaps because his relationship with Rop has soured. The departure of Drnovsek may also have contributed to the party's defeat. Some also voiced disbelief as they saw the party head further and further from the political center toward the left.

A low turnout may also have hurt the LDS, since Slovenia's right-of-center parties traditionally have more loyal voters. The turnout was 60.54 percent, almost 10 percent less than in 2000.

Even so, the results were a surprise, as no major poll predicted such a defeat for the LDS, a party that led this country of 2 million into both the European Union and NATO.

Two seats in the parliament are designated to the members of the Italian and Hungarian minorities. They have always supported center-left governments.

The run-up to the election was marked by a serious border dispute with Croatia, after which the government of Prime Minister Rop withdrew its unconditional support for its southern neighbor's bid to join the European Union. Several members of the People's Party were arrested in the disputed border area, a public relations coup that may have helped the party increase its vote by 4 percentage points.

President Drnovsek will now hold talks with the leaders of all seven parties that exceeded the 4 percent threshold and made it into the parliament. After the talks he will invite one of the leaders--probably Jansa--to try to form a government. The government would then need to win a vote of confidence in the parliament.

A REMARKABLE ELECTION GOES UNREMARKED

But this sea change in Slovenian politics was barely noted by the media, as journalists chose the moment to go on a general strike.

National Radio and Television, all the major daily newspapers, the state-owned press agency, and various other media went on strike on election day to protest the refusal by the media owners' association to accept the legitimacy of agreement with journalists that determines not just their minimum wages but many other aspects of journalists' work.

National Radio and Television reported only raw official results and turnout data without any comments, statements, or camera shots of the politicians. Some major daily newspapers provided only the barest outline of events. However, some media, including a popular privately owned television station, refused to join the strike, saying they had put too much effort into covering the election to alter their plans.



Andrej Brstovsek is a TOL correspondent based in Ljubljana.