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Sun 3 Oct, 2004 02:21 pm
You are offered a choice of 1 of 3 doors, call them A, B and C; behind 2 of them is a tiger and behind the third one is a pot of gold.
Let's say that you choose door A.
You are then told that there is a tiger behind door B, and are given the chance of changing your guess.
Should you? Why?
Yes. Your chances will improve from 1/3 to 2/3. This is the Monte Hall problem in a different wrapper. Here, you pay with your life if you guess incorrectly.
I don't know the Monte Hall problem.
Could you add a few probabilty equations showing where the 2/3 comes from?
Thanks.
When you chose A, you had a 1/3 chance of being correct. Therefore, there is a 2/3 chance that the gold is behind B or C. Nothing will change that. After it is revealed to you that B contains a tiger, there is still a 2/3 chance that B or C contains gold. However, you know that B doesn't; so there is a 2/3 chance that C does. Switch to C and make the correct choice 2/3 of the time.
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