Asherman wrote:1. I disagree that current trends lead inevitably to extinction if unaltered. We don't know where the trend lines will lead, but they almost certainly will not continue ad infinitum. Long before the species commits suicide, Mother Nature will intervene and thin the herd. I strongly suspect that a major world epidemic and/or famine will occur in the not distant future. Reduce human population by a third, and almost all of the trends that disturb folks will be at least mitigated, and may they may vanish entirely for many generations. Alteration of disturbing trends might also happen in less dreadful ways. If our species can discover a clean and inexpensive alternative to energy production, imagine how many of the world's problems would shrink to relative unimportance.
Would you agree that trends are leading to a unified world economy? This is a different question than whether the lack of unification would lead to extinction. Consider NAFTA, The EU, GATT, The WTO, IMF, World Bank, etc. Some of these organizations go beyond mere treaties since some of them actually have a judicial function that forces changes in internal law and trade policy. As far as current trends leading to extinction: Agreed
Asherman wrote: The danger that War will lead to human extinction I think is currently quite remote. Even during the height of the Cold War when nuclear arsenals and their delivery systems were many times greater than they are today, the extinction of life as a result of spasm nuclear war was low. For the best and most authoritative thinking on that subject see Herman Kahn's "On Thermonuclear War", and "Thinking the Unthinkable". Nuclear devices have been used only twice against human targets, and that at the beginning of the Atomic Era when understanding of the effects of nuclear weapons was almost non-existent. Today the only real danger of an exchange of nuclear weapons is by emerging nations, rogue states, or fanatical terrorists. In each of those cases, the weapons are likely to be small and limited in number. The effects, while locally devastating, would have almost zero effect even regionally. The use of biological agents by rogue states or terrorists actually presents a much larger danger than the spread of nuclear weapons. Unleashing Small Pox again on to the world could easily kill upwards of one third of the entire human population, but only a suicidal action by terrorists is worrisome ... especially now that Saddam is out of the picture.
Agreed, except to say that Saddam was not an immediate problem in the first place. There were, and are, more immediate threats than Saddam was but there is no oil in those regions.
Asherman wrote:2. As can be seen by my comments above, it is vident that I reject the second proposition (that only the creation of a single world government capable of enforcing world-wide policies designed to make the world safe, secure and peaceful) as being our only hope for escaping extinction.
Agreed
Asherman wrote: Central Planning has a really terrible track record. The old USSR had central Planning, and it destroyed their empire. Human planners are often wrong, and it should be self-evident why that is the case. Not all relevant information is available to decision-makers, and othes important information isn't recognized until long after it can make a difference. People make mistakes, and when those mistakes are implemented on a world-wide basis the negative effects are potentially much worse than if we just "muddled through". Anyone whose dealt with the political complexities of even a small village can appreciate the difficulties in trying to master truly powerful politics on a world scale. Instead of having a small number of interest groups fighting for supremacy, the numbers of powerful contending forces would have to be balanced. The result of the process wouldn't be the "best" solution, but the solution favored by the most powerful interest group. Of course, that problem already exists at the national level, but if a nation goes wrong there are others that counter-balance it and provide an "escape" hatch if disaster follows. Where would one "escape" a really grand world screw-up if there was only one, all powerful world government? Where do dissenters escape to, if world government turns out to be a tyranny?
One of the solutions is for people who are less powerful to organize now, at this early stage, to represent counter-balancing points of view. Since I see inevitability in the trends (whether or not those trends are to be desired), then tyranny will likely only be avoided if non-tyrannical view-points are brought forth now. Business interests seem to be the driving force behind globalization with government following their lead. Anyone who works for a large corporation would agree that central planning is not ideal. But, that is the direction the world seems nonetheless to be headed. Business planners see the environment, people and government as only factors in their profit/loss equations. Given the nature of what they are doing this is probably not a bad thing: for them. Currently, the business point of view is the one holding sway in the world and, extrapolating into the distant future, that would have the potential to become tyrannical if left unchecked. Indeed, any point of view, left unchecked, would eventually devolve into tyranny.
Asherman wrote:You say the world government must be, "(de)void of any possibility for corruption". Good luck. So long as humans remain human they will find a means of corrupting any system for personal, or interest group, benefit. Governments are headed by humans, and every human has the capability of doing really terrible things, sometimes with the best of intentions. Humans have been known to seek unlimited personal power, and to dominate all others. How would a world government so completely guarantee that never to happen? The best system I know of is based on the representational democracy established by the United States Constitution. Is it perfect?
This paragraph (if not the entire post) is obviously a reply to Nipok.
In my point of view, since I see globalization as inevitable, the way to ameliorate the possibility toward corruption is to allow diversity of opinion (and policy) on the world stage.
Asherman wrote:Even when the Chief Executive is faultlessly performing his duties and responsibilities, perhaps half the nation is convinced that he is a blight who must be removed from office in a time of great trial. In our history strong leaders serving in times of crisis are often the target of sizable opposition. There was a serious effort to replace Washington as General of the Revolutionary Army and the accusations against this the best of all our Presidents during his terms in office were almost as bad as those we now hear against President Bush. Lincoln himself expected to be voted out of office, and replaced with the more pacific minded Little Mac, during the Civil War.
Have to take issue with your characterization of our current Chief Executive as "faultlessly performing his duties and responsibilities." I can find a few tiny faults.
Asherman wrote:World government would, in my opinion be the worst solution possible, to problems that may not amount to a hill of beans in the long run.
While I don't see extinction as the alternative to world government, I do think that world government is coming whether we like it or not. Nor would I characterize it as the worst possible solution since it would eliminate nationalism as one source of conflict in the world. People should not be disengaged from the possibility of world government. Engagement is the way to influence the inevitable final product.