Wonder where all the jobs went?

The countries that some people think are taking our jobs are almost always much worse off than we are.

According to the OECD's estimate for 2002 and its projections for 2003 and 2004, Canada's debt will keep falling, while that of the United States, Germany and France will keep rising. While Canada keeps running government surpluses, the other three will run big deficits that will swell their debt.

By 2004, our debt will be down to 36 per cent of GDP, a full 10 percentage points below the United States's 46 per cent.

Those projections were made before Washington rolled out its latest tax cut proposals, which have prompted many analysts to increase their forecasts of U.S. deficits.

Canadians can now make an unusual boast: We're the only G7 country with twin surpluses, one in the government accounts and one in the current account, which tracks our financial dealings with the rest of the world.

We've been in that position since 1999, and if the OECD is right, we'll stay there until 2004. Since 1985, only two other countries have pulled off this feat -- Germany in 1989 and Japan for six consecutive years during its powerhouse days from 1987 through 1992 before it stumbled so badly.

The United States is running twin deficits, as it has for most of the past two decades. One consequence is that Canada's net debt to the rest of the world -- under 19 per cent of GDP at last count in 2001 -- is now below that of the United States. That's a huge change from the mid-1990s, when Canada's foreign debt was 43 per cent of GDP, while that of the United States was only 5 per cent.

MANUFACTURING JOBS - EMPLOYMENT TRENDS & MISCONCEPTIONS
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 14.6 million Americans employed in manufacturing in July, down from 15.3 million a year earlier, 16.4 million the year before that (2001) and 17.3 million the year before that (2000) -- a decline of 16 percent in 3 years. The recent peak for manufacturing employment occurred in March 1998 at 17.6 million -- about the same as it had been for the previous 15 years.
It is important to note; however, that other major countries have also seen declines in manufacturing employment. Between 1992 and 2002, U.S. manufacturing employment fell by 3.7%. In Britain, it fell 4.7%, in Japan it fell 5.2%, and in Germany it fell 6.1%.
But in spite of the downward trend lines, overall manufacturing is very high. Bruce Bartlett of the National Center for Policy Analysis writes "the Federal Reserve Board's industrial production index is up 5 percent since manufacturing employment peaked in 1998, and down just 5 percent from the index's peak in July 2000, despite a rather severe recession in the meantime."
"Looking at gross domestic product, real goods production as a share of real (inflation-adjusted) GDP is close to its all-time high. In the first quarter of 2003 - - the latest data available -- real goods production was 39.2 percent of real GDP. The highest annual figure ever recorded was 40 percent in 2000. By contrast, in the 'good old days' of the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s, the U.S. actually produced far fewer goods as a share of total output. The highest figure recorded in the 1940s was 35.5 percent in 1943; the highest in the 1950s was 34.9 percent in 1953; and the highest in the 1960s was 33.6 percent in 1966. In short, manufacturing output is very healthy."

Husker
Statistics may show a rosy picture or at least not a dismal one. And the US may not have been hit any worse than some of the other countries. However, how bright is the job picture? It is great to be able to produce with two people that which ten were needed in the past. The question is where will the other eight find employment. To the person in the trenches, the American worker, the only concern is getting a paycheck.Statistics do not pay the bills