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Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

 
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 02:26 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
That's an interesting demand. They're the furthest from most threats, and they represent the same size as Italy in Europol; not exactly major.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 02:30 pm
@georgeob1,
The level of threat does not depend on EU membership. The UK will be just as exposed post Brexit as they were before it.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 02:39 pm
@Olivier5,
Good point.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 07:10 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

The level of threat does not depend on EU membership. The UK will be just as exposed post Brexit as they were before it.


Nonsense. They will be in full control of their own Borders, thereby eliminating an immediate and continuing threat, and will be free to manage their own foreign policies, free from the "ever closer union" of EU constraints and its focus on "ostpolotik".

From a purely military point of view the EU powers (with the exception of France) no longer have the power to even defend themselves.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 07:18 pm
@georgeob1,
France and Germany's combined spending on defense is $90 billion.
Fil Albuquerque
 
  3  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 07:26 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Germany now has the perfect excuse to rearm after Brexit and Trump talk...they can do it in a decade and properly. I am not complaining bout it either.
...as for the UK they will be made an example to the other EU members. It will be an hard Brexit no doubts. Lets see about Scotland later. May can bluff all she wants Brexit will be demolishing for the brits...
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 07:30 pm
@Fil Albuquerque,
I agree with you that Brexit will end up costing them more in many ways. Having to negotiate trade agreements with each country will develop into a quagmire.
Fil Albuquerque
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 07:35 pm
@Fil Albuquerque,
Brits better start funding Le Pen campaign on France or making noise on the market to bring Italy banks down and the world economy along with them. Misery loves company...
0 Replies
 
Fil Albuquerque
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 07:37 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Brexit will be the perfect reminder why true democracy is nonsense. No one else in the future will make referendums about serious stuff common Joe knows jack bout EVER again.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 07:57 pm
@Fil Albuquerque,
I have a different take on it. I think "democracy" has a positive ring for many in this world, and many who don't have it will strive for it.
No political theory will ever be "perfect." In politically free countries, it's always a pull between socialism and democracy. The issues about jobs, trade, living wage, and immigration will be the dividing topics.
Those countries with an aging demographics needs to realize that without immigration, there's not going to be enough workers to support the schools and the retired. I think most developed countries are facing that dilemma.
Fil Albuquerque
 
  2  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:03 pm
@cicerone imposter,
I agree with Churchil, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” My point was that direct democracy is suicide. We need brains till AI arrives for good. The topic now is Neo-Nationalism vs Global and Nationalism talk is the last breath of an already lost world. There is no going back.

- This is why EU cannot fall.
- This is why US would be fracked 2x fold if EU falls. (someone explain it to Mr. Tweets)
- And this is why Brits are really fracked to the balls for a couple of decades.
- Germany can now grow to be what was meant to be.
- France has now a chance to shine if they shut Le Pen properly.
- France has now a chance to bring their "Fraternity" speech to the limelight if they can educate their "street gangs".

PS - Lots of "ifs" I know but this is like talking bout the weather.

cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:14 pm
@Fil Albuquerque,
There's no going back, because the demographics of the developed countries are aging at an alarming rate while longevity continues to increase.
Many in the US continue to complain that wages have remained stagnant for decades while the rich get richer.
I like to read the financial pages of newspapers in an attempt to grasp how our economy is maintaining itself. So far, so good, but I'm not sure how long it's going to last.
We've been hearing doomsday stories about our stock market losing 50 to 80% of its value for the past couple of years, but I believe that's a bunch of huey. That's because, our economy is still growing - although at historical low rates. Given the world economy now, I think our country is holding its own.
Just continue to watch consumer spending which makes up 70% of our economy. Consumer confidence reports are important to watch. Our GDP tells us most of the story that's important. It's now close to $19 trillion.

Quote:
U.S. sales broke the all-time record in 2016: 17.46 million units sold, a .4% increase over 2015’s 17.39 million.

Builder
 
  2  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:21 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Quote:
Given the world economy now, I think our country is holding its own.


Through quantitative easing, the federal reserve is artificially stimulating the stock market, but can't say where the benefits are actually flowing to.

When that stimulation stops, it's a freefall bonanza for anyone with investment dollars.
Fil Albuquerque
 
  2  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:25 pm
@cicerone imposter,
You are wrong the only thing preventing a worldwide default is smart ppl whistling and smiling to the cameras to delay the unavoidable while calming the common Joe. It will happen in less than a decade.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:30 pm
@Builder,
Quantitative easing helped the whole economy; it stimulated economic growth, diminished unemployment, and helped prevent deflation.
Quote:
The increased money supply and lower interest rates have played some role in stimulating higher economic growth and preventing deflation (as measured by core inflation). To some extent, quantitative easing has played a role in diminishing unemployment and providing a small stimulus to a fragile economy. This has been impact in the face of fiscal austerity and zero bound interest rates. Quantitative easing is one of the few policies left to help stimulate economic growth. Therefore, there has been a wider benefit to quantitative easing than just bankers.
0 Replies
 
Builder
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:30 pm
@Fil Albuquerque,
I think the Wall street bigshots are fully aware of this freefall situation, and are quietly stashing cash reserves in several locations across the globe.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:34 pm
@Fil Albuquerque,
Fil Albuquerque wrote:

Germany now has the perfect excuse to rearm after Brexit and Trump talk...they can do it in a decade and properly. I am not complaining bout it either.
...as for the UK they will be made an example to the other EU members. It will be an hard Brexit no doubts. Lets see about Scotland later. May can bluff all she wants Brexit will be demolishing for the brits...


I think one of the clear lessons of history is that in the struggles between the makers & enforcers of rues, on one hand, and those who pursue self interest in breaking them on the other, it is generally wise to bet on the latter, Same goes for competition between rule-bound complex systems like the EU and simpler, more agile self interested ones - : the latter usually wins. I will bet on the UK in this one.

Germany has long had nothing but itself limiting its rearmament and has needed no excuse for delaying it. I doubt that will change quickly. It is also the chief beneficiary of the EURO - a proficient, exporter with its main export market tied to its own currency. This is an issue that causes resentment among the southern EU states. They and others like Hungary appear to be growing weary of the increasingly proscriptive governance of the EU bureaucracy in Brussels.

I agree the EU has good reason to wish to make an example of the UK in Brexit, as you indicate. However, that could easily backfire in the thicket of increasing internal tensions within the EU, as is evident in Holland, and even France today.
Fil Albuquerque
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:34 pm
@Builder,
I don't know if that will help much. I believe in a full domino effect that won't leave anyone standing. The later the worse it will be. They might as well start thinking in stashing grain to...
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:35 pm
@Fil Albuquerque,
I could be wrong; I've never assumed to know how to predict our economy - or any economy, because it's not science. I did study Marco and micro-economics in college, and have a pretty good sense of how our economy is doing.
Having the little knowledge I have has helped to double our money in the stock market over the past ten years. Luck also played a part, because we bought our home which eventually became Silicon Valley. Our $52k home is now worth over $1.5 million. Of coarse, we have completely renovated the house from top to bottom, because it was built in 1955.
Builder
 
  1  
Thu 30 Mar, 2017 08:37 pm
@Fil Albuquerque,
Yes, food will be an issue globally. There's no end to the financial experts who see QE as not just aritificially propping up trade, but quite dangerous in the short term.


Quote:

Paul Gambles – the managing partner of MBMG Group – explains at CNBC, there is an obvious flaw in QE:

BoE’s Quarterly Bulletin … states that a “common misconception is that the central bank determines the quantity of loans and deposits in the economy by controlling the quantity of central bank money — the so-called ‘money multiplier’ approach.”

This “misconception” is obviously shared by the world’s policymakers, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China, not to mention the Bank of England itself, who have persisted with a policy of quantitative easing (QE).

Here’s background on the flaw in the theory of the money multiplier.

Indeed, Ben Bernanke might have had hints about the flaw in the money multiplier theory back in 1988.

Gambles continues:

QE is seen by its adherents, such as former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, as both the panacea to heal the post-global financial crisis world and also the factor whose absence was the main cause of the Great Depression. This is in line with their view that central banks create currency for commercial banks to then lend on to borrowers and that this stimulates both asset values and also consumption, which then underpin and fuel the various stages of the expected recovery, encouraging banks to create even more money by lending to both businesses and individuals as a virtuous cycle of expansion unfolds.

The theory sounds great.

However it has one tiny flaw. It’s nonsense.

***

Professor Hyman Minsky was one of the first to recognize the flaw in those theories. He realized that in practise, in a credit-driven economy, the process is the other way round. The credit which underpins economic activity isn’t created by a supply of large deposits which then enables banks to lend; instead it is the demand for credit by borrowers that creates loans from banks which are then paid to recipients who then deposit them into banks. Loans create deposits, not the other way round.


source
0 Replies
 
 

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