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Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Mon 19 Dec, 2016 12:37 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Theresa May declines to rule out paying EU for single market acces
Quote:
Theresa May has declined to rule out continuing to pay significant sums into the EU budget after Brexit.

Asked about the issue in the Commons, the prime minister would only say that the government would be able to make decisions about how to spend taxpayers’ money after leaving the EU.

The Conservative MP Philip Davies urged her to make a pledge not to pay any money into the EU budget. He argued that even “contemplating that would be contemplating betraying what people voted for” in June.

May replied that Britain would live up to its obligations while it remained a member, adding: “When we leave the EU, people want to ensure that it is the British government that decides how taxpayer money is spent.”

The comments leave open the possibility – already hinted at by the Brexit secretary, David Davis – that the UK could pay in money in an attempt to retain access to the single market.

The subject is politically difficult for the foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, and other frontbenchers who told voters during the referendum campaign that Brexit would mean clawing back £350m a week to spend on the NHS.

May was also asked about reports that the EU would charge Britain a £50bn exit bill to leave the EU, and made no comment.
[...]
May reiterated her desire for a “smooth and orderly” Brexit, and said she had raised with the EU leaders her desire to protect European citizens already living in Britain – suggesting that it was the other countries stalling the process.

... ... ... ...

0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Mon 26 Dec, 2016 11:21 pm
'Clean Brexit' could save UK £450m a week, claims pro-leave group
Quote:
A pressure group backed by a string of former Vote Leave campaigners from Michael Gove to Gisela Stuart has claimed that exiting the EU with a “clean Brexit” could save the country £450m a week.

During the referendum campaign, Vote Leave controversially argued that leaving the EU would leave an extra £350m a week to spend on the NHS.

But research from Change Britain goes a step further by arguing that a complete break with the EU could be even more beneficial.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 27 Dec, 2016 01:26 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
It would be nice to see the details on how those savings would be achieved.
I learned in college that free trade helps all countries through comparative advantage.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Wed 28 Dec, 2016 11:56 am
@cicerone imposter,
The state of the current debate on Brexit in the UK is a bit confusing, in my opinion.

The conclusion that Brexit would "boost the UK by £450m a week" was done by those experts by adding together potential savings to the Treasury from eliminating the UK's net contribution to the EU budget, the (hypothetical) increases in exports from post-Brexit trade deals, the supposed benefits of eliminating some EU regulations (e.g. the Data Protection Act).

Wrong, really wrong, however: the report also claims as a potential gain from Brexit increased exports from a free-trade deal with South Korea.
There is already a free-trade deal with South Korea, since 2011, between the EU and South Korea.
So after Brexit, there'll be no potential economic benefit but perhaps/probably (depending on what comes out in the negotiations) a potential cost.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Wed 28 Dec, 2016 01:12 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
I agree that the likely economic consequences (at least in the short term) are highly dependent on the nature of the agreement that will presumably be reached by the UK and the EU. The longer term consequences will likely depend far more on the British people themselves.

However My perception is that the chief motivator in the political debate within the UK for BREXIT was an escape from the bureaucratic rule of the EU and greatert autonomy for themselves.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 28 Dec, 2016 01:21 pm
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
However My perception is that the chief motivator in the political debate within the UK for BREXIT was an escape from the bureaucratic rule of the EU and greatert autonomy for themselves.
That might be so. But it wasn't one of the main arguments for the voters.
(As far as I remember, it was at first "economics", then "national sovereignty, and third, voters rejected the "political elitism".
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Wed 28 Dec, 2016 01:31 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
What was the economic issue? As a believer in macro-economics, I don't understand how they can benefit from Brexit.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 28 Dec, 2016 01:47 pm
@cicerone imposter,
They think/thought that British problems weren't solved, that it is a dysfunctional economic entity ... . They don't/didn’t think that EU can/could throw up trade barriers against Britain but that they get an even better deal than being a member.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Wed 28 Dec, 2016 03:01 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Seems like the only option is negotiating tariff rates. Seems like a lose-lose proposition from here.
contrex
 
  2  
Wed 28 Dec, 2016 03:06 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

Seems like the only option is negotiating tariff rates. Seems like a lose-lose proposition from here.

It's a train wreck all right.

Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Tue 3 Jan, 2017 08:53 am
@contrex,
The UK's ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, unexpectedly quits just weeks after row over leaked Brexit memo.
Quote:
Former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, who once worked for Sir Ivan in Brussels, described his resignation as a "body blow to the government's Brexit plans".

Labour MP Hilary Benn, who chairs the Brexit select committee, said it had come at a "crucial" point and urged the government to "get its skates on" in finding a replacement. "It couldn't be a more difficult time to organise a handover," he added.

Mr Benn told BBC Radio 4's The World at One the permanent representative's job was to convey the view of the UK to other member states, as well as "honestly and fearlessly reporting back" what those countries in turn said about the negotiations.

Prime Minister Theresa May says she will trigger formal talks between the UK and the EU by the end of March, setting in place a two-year negotiation process.

Sir Ivan is a veteran civil servant whose previous roles include private secretary to ex-chancellor Ken Clarke, principal private secretary to ex-PM Tony Blair and Mr Cameron's Europe adviser.

He was criticised in some quarters for "pessimism" over Brexit after his advice to ministers on the negotiating timescale was reported.

UKIP donor and Leave.EU chairman Arron Banks said Sir Ivan was "yet another of the establishment's pro-EU old guard" and welcomed his resignation.
Source
georgeob1
 
  1  
Tue 3 Jan, 2017 08:57 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

They think/thought that British problems weren't solved, that it is a dysfunctional economic entity ... . They don't/didn’t think that EU can/could throw up trade barriers against Britain but that they get an even better deal than being a member.
I'm beyond what I know well here, but did the Brexit folks in the UK debade believe they would get a deal somewhat like that of the Norwegians? Is/was that a realistic idea?
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Tue 3 Jan, 2017 09:05 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
I'm beyond what I know well here, but did the Brexit folks in the UK debade believe they would get a deal somewhat like that of the Norwegians? Is/was that a realistic idea?

Some thought about it, and it has been discussed in the media (and letters to the editor).

A stupid idea in my opinion, since the UK would be worse off as they are now being a member. (Other EU-countries would like it.)
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Tue 3 Jan, 2017 09:58 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Nearly 400,000 jobs could be created as a result of post-EU trade deals with other countries, pro-Brexit campaign group Change Britain has claimed.
Quote:
An analysis by Change Britain, a group with the backing of Michael Gove, said that leaving the European Union’s customs union and striking trade agreements with just eight foreign countries will create hundreds of thousands of jobs in manufacturing and service industries.

Using European Commission figures on potential trade deals with countries such as India, China, Japan and Canada, the Change Britain analysis found Britain would get nearly £20 billion from extra exports and create 387,580 jobs.

As a member of the EU’s customs union, Britain is not allowed to make its own free trade agreements with non-EU countries and must instead rely on the European Commission to do so.
Source

India has made it abundantly clear that it’s not interested in a trade deal with the UK as long as we continue to go out of our way to make skilled workers and students from India unwelcome. The EU already has a free trade deal with Korea.
Change Britain seems to be doing its best to crowd out serious debate on the costs and benefits of leaving the customs union, since there certainly are some costs, not only that reducing the openness of the UK economy has negative economic impacts.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 3 Jan, 2017 11:32 am
@Walter Hinteler,
With the little I understand from the study of macroeconomics in college, open/free trade is the best option for all. Something called "comparative advantage".
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 3 Jan, 2017 11:50 am
@Walter Hinteler,
We have many from India, Taiwan, and China in Silicon Valley. Probably many from Europe too.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Tue 3 Jan, 2017 01:16 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage calls for more ambassadors to be removed from their posts “all over the world” after Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK’s top diplomat in Brussels, announced he will be stepping down from his ambassadorial role within the next few weeks. Calling Rogers a “fanatical remainer”, Farage says he hopes there will soon be a “clear out” of diplomats to make way for people who will pursue a “global, not a European” future for Britain
Source
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Wed 4 Jan, 2017 01:24 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Brexit is an opportunity to rebalance British farming, report claims, but Brexit ‘zombie legislation’ could damage wildlife and farming, MPs warn.

Quote from Sir Ivan Rogers' resignation letter:
Quote:
Serious multilateral negotiating experience is in short supply in Whitehall, and that is not the case in the Commission or in the Council.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Thu 5 Jan, 2017 11:06 am
@Walter Hinteler,
It seems that the UK bureaucracy is as worse compared as that on the continent (or in the EU or just Germany, whatever).

Interesting examples in this report: Man told to take citizenship test despite living entire life in UK
georgeob1
 
  0  
Thu 5 Jan, 2017 12:44 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Bureaucracies everywhere have more or less the same traits. I suspect the main variable is just how great is their reach and control in any country. My impression is that the EU has over the past two decades become a leader in that area, though I don't know the relative degrees to which the UK Germany and other EU states are also bureaucratized. Bureaucracies have greatly extended their reach in the U.S. over the past three decades, and that, I believe was one of the factors that determined the result of our recent election.
 

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