Human nature is a very highly non linear system.
Britain’s businesses are being urged to step up their preparations for a no-deal Brexit amid signs that Theresa May’s successor could be prepared to leave the EU without a deal at the end of October.
The Institute of Directors – one of the UK’s employers’ groups – said its members had so far failed to take advantage of the seven-month delay to Brexit and warned that companies should not put faith in politicians to produce an agreement.
The IoD produced figures that showed less than half of businesses had Brexit plans, and said firms should be considering all reasonable preparations for no deal.
Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?
Almost all of the would-be Tory leaders have cooked up fantastical schemes for Ireland – but reality is closing in
“Why, sometimes,” the Queen said to Alice, “I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” The Tory leadership candidates seem to have been particularly busy before breakfast. Between them they have come up with a veritable Wonderland of wheezes to resolve the Northern Ireland backstop issue. Insert a time limit or an exit mechanism. Set up a border council. Expect the EU to trust in technological solutions before they have been discovered. Change the UK’s negotiating team. Conjure up Angela Merkel riding to the rescue. Crash out of the EU and pretend the problem doesn’t exist. Even a respectful stratagem to pay Ireland for the technology. Stage direction: doff cap. God bless you, sir. Unfortunately, comprehension levels about Ireland have slipped back somewhat since Queen Elizabeth’s state visit to Ireland in 2011.
Many of the candidates are very decent politicians who I have no doubt mean well. However, with the exception of Rory Stewart, they are offering a variety of fictions in relation to the backstop. We understand that politicians make promises when they face elections. However, in this case, the harsh reality that beckons if only illusory avenues are explored is a no-deal Brexit. I sincerely hope that the candidates still seriously in contention leave themselves enough wriggle room to avoid the very outcome they would prefer to avoid.
Like most Irish people, I have immense affection for Britain and its people. It is better for a friend to be honest than to nurture false hopes. “Let’s not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late,” as Bob Dylan might say. In that spirit, as an antidote to the illusions that have characterised the hustings so far, I would offer a modest Irish breakfast consisting of half-a-dozen simple facts.
First, the backstop is an essential element in preserving the balances of the Good Friday agreement. It is not a tactic. ... ... ...
Second, our European partners designed the backstop because successive British and Irish governments have spent decades explaining to them the complex and subtle balances that brought peace to our island. ... ... ...
Third, the EU will also continue to insist on the backstop because the single market, which the UK did more than anyone to shape, is based on laws that necessarily distinguish between countries that belong to it and those that don’t, and on rules that regulate the trade between them. ... ... ...
Fourth, the backstop is an insurance policy. No more but also no less. ... ... ...
Fifth, the most important reality is that the EU will not renegotiate the backstop. ... ... ...
Finally, the EU’s approach to a new British prime minister will be characterised by courtesy, respect and good faith. ... ... ...
This one is quite predictable, not the full extent but the date I mean. My advice is to get your money out of the stock market before Halloween.
Leo Varadkar has said removing the Irish border backstop from the UK’s EU Withdrawal Agreement would be “effectively the same” as a no-deal Brexit.
The Irish premier added it was “alarming” that Conservative leadership candidates have proposed changes to the policy which safeguards against a hard border.
Boris Johnson, the frontrunner in the race to replace Theresa May as prime minister, is among those who have suggested ditching the backstop in favour of unspecified “alternative arrangements”.
Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, has said he believes his party would be “leaving me” if it cannot fully endorse a second referendum, hours after giving a speech in which he said it should be the party of remain.
Watson told the BBC that Labour “certainly might lose some votes” for backing a referendum, but would pay “a very high electoral price” for not taking a clear position on Brexit.
Asked if he might be prepared to leave the party without a clear change of direction, he said, “I’m never going to leave the Labour party,” but then added: “Sometimes I wonder whether the Labour party is leaving me.”
Watson said he had “no doubt” Labour’s position would change at the party’s annual conference in September, but said he feared “by then it will be too late”.
The deputy leader’s interview followed a speech he gave at a pro-EU thinktank arguing that Labour needed to make a better case for continued EU membership – even at this late hour.
Watson’s intervention was immediately criticised by the party chair Ian Lavery, a vociferous opponent of a second referendum. “Brexit has turned this country into a toxic nation. However, ignoring the 17.4 million leave voters isn’t politically smart nor indeed particularly democratic. Is it?” Lavery tweeted after Watson’s speech.
... ... ...
Germany lined up behind other EU states and official to warn that a new UK prime minister will not be able to renegotiate the Brexit withdrawal agreement struck between the EU and Theresa May.
Michael Roth, the country's EU affairs minister, warned that there was simply no appetite in the EU to re-open talks on the deal.
His warning – a reiteration of previous EU statements on the matter - comes as Tory leadership contenders line up to pledge changes to Brexit and further talks in Brussels.