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Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 01:30 pm
The remaining Conservative leadership candidates are in talks about joining forces to provide the strongest challenge to Boris Johnson.

The consequences of Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal would be extremely serious for Northern Ireland, Tom Tugendhat, the chair of the foreign affairs select committee, has warned.

Another ballot of MPs will now be held next Tuesday, with further rounds to follow on Wednesday and possibly Thursday, until the field is narrowed to two. Their names will then be presented to Conservative members in a postal ballot, with the winner due to be announced in the week of 21 July.

The new prime minister will then have just three months to prepare for Brexit by the deadline.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 02:11 pm
@Olivier5,
Well I hope the outcome is better than that. The sting of rejection on the part of "the 27" very likely does produce the attitudes you described. The EU governing organizations and the major powers that guide it, Germany and France, also have an interest in making an example of the UK for any other nations contemplating such a departure.

There's nothing new about the rivalries of the UK and the major continental powers, and the history of Britain's connections to the European Project has long been a bit tentative (perhaps De Gaulle was right !) . However, in the present circumstances, I believe the best course for all is a negotiated settlement done with the interests of all parties in mind.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 02:43 pm
@georgeob1,
A no-deal outcome is "in the cards" IMO. In a business as usual scenario, the UK will be unable to articulate a choice come Halloween, and will take a big hit economically for it. The EU too, though spread over a much larger GDP. The world economy will take a hit as well, of course.

Scenarios have been computed but we can't really predict the full scale of this upcoming crash. Maybe just a ripple, maybe something worse. You know, domino effects and butterflies-induced storms and all that jazz.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 03:29 pm
@Olivier5,
I have from the start felt that, given the continuing uncertainty about the UK's real intentions in the whole Brexit issue, or its commitment to actually go through with it, successful negotiations over the terms were impossible. In effect the EU negotiators were being asked to enhance the political status of UK leaders in arguing that Brexit was a good idea. As long as the "if we do it" question was in the air , serious negotiations about "how it is done" could not occur.

The butterfly principal you cited came out of early efforts to numerically simulate complex turbulent fluid flows, and the prolonged effort of foolish devotees to get there with ever more computer power. Non-linear systems just don't permit that, and their future states remain unpredictable. Human nature is a very highly non linear system.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 03:50 pm
@georgeob1,
Quote:
Human nature is a very highly non linear system.

To say nothing of the global economy them darn humans have put together! It's complex, ramified. Like all markets, it was built on some modicum of mutual trust, through treaties and institutions and rules commonly agreed to (not always abided to obviously, but with some agreed channels for adjudication). This modern global economy of ours can unravel faster than the markets currently realize.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 04:30 pm
@Olivier5,
Well, notwithstanding the confident predictions of the prognosticating savants, economic crashes, when they occur usually come as a surprise, though after the fact many go to great lengths to (once again) show how it was all very predictable.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 10:57 pm
@georgeob1,
UK businesses urged to step up preparations for no-deal Brexit
Quote:
Britain’s businesses are being urged to step up their preparations for a no-deal Brexit amid signs that Theresa May’s successor could be prepared to leave the EU without a deal at the end of October.

The Institute of Directors – one of the UK’s employers’ groups – said its members had so far failed to take advantage of the seven-month delay to Brexit and warned that companies should not put faith in politicians to produce an agreement.

The IoD produced figures that showed less than half of businesses had Brexit plans, and said firms should be considering all reasonable preparations for no deal.


But even in Brussels and other EU capitals, people are not completely relaxed about a no deal exit. The EU Commission admits that despite the generally good preparations, "considerable disruptions for citizens and companies" were imminent. In particular, some insurance companies and financial service providers are sometimes "not well prepared".

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) and the Halle Institute for Economic Research lowered their growth forecasts for the German economy, referring among other things to the threat of a "chaos-Brexit".
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Jun, 2019 12:27 am
@georgeob1,
This one is quite predictable, not the full extent but the date I mean. My advice is to get your money out of the stock market before Halloween.
ghenderson
 
  0  
Reply Fri 14 Jun, 2019 04:50 am
Quote:
Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?


Self respect?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Fri 14 Jun, 2019 05:15 am
@Olivier5,
Bobby McDonagh, reland’s ambassador to the UK from 2009-13, wrote this opinion in The Guardian: On the Irish backstop, leadership contenders are Tories in Wonderland
Quote:
Almost all of the would-be Tory leaders have cooked up fantastical schemes for Ireland – but reality is closing in

“Why, sometimes,” the Queen said to Alice, “I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” The Tory leadership candidates seem to have been particularly busy before breakfast. Between them they have come up with a veritable Wonderland of wheezes to resolve the Northern Ireland backstop issue. Insert a time limit or an exit mechanism. Set up a border council. Expect the EU to trust in technological solutions before they have been discovered. Change the UK’s negotiating team. Conjure up Angela Merkel riding to the rescue. Crash out of the EU and pretend the problem doesn’t exist. Even a respectful stratagem to pay Ireland for the technology. Stage direction: doff cap. God bless you, sir. Unfortunately, comprehension levels about Ireland have slipped back somewhat since Queen Elizabeth’s state visit to Ireland in 2011.

Many of the candidates are very decent politicians who I have no doubt mean well. However, with the exception of Rory Stewart, they are offering a variety of fictions in relation to the backstop. We understand that politicians make promises when they face elections. However, in this case, the harsh reality that beckons if only illusory avenues are explored is a no-deal Brexit. I sincerely hope that the candidates still seriously in contention leave themselves enough wriggle room to avoid the very outcome they would prefer to avoid.

Like most Irish people, I have immense affection for Britain and its people. It is better for a friend to be honest than to nurture false hopes. “Let’s not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late,” as Bob Dylan might say. In that spirit, as an antidote to the illusions that have characterised the hustings so far, I would offer a modest Irish breakfast consisting of half-a-dozen simple facts.

First, the backstop is an essential element in preserving the balances of the Good Friday agreement. It is not a tactic. ... ... ...

Second, our European partners designed the backstop because successive British and Irish governments have spent decades explaining to them the complex and subtle balances that brought peace to our island. ... ... ...

Third, the EU will also continue to insist on the backstop because the single market, which the UK did more than anyone to shape, is based on laws that necessarily distinguish between countries that belong to it and those that don’t, and on rules that regulate the trade between them. ... ... ...

Fourth, the backstop is an insurance policy. No more but also no less. ... ... ...

Fifth, the most important reality is that the EU will not renegotiate the backstop. ... ... ...

Finally, the EU’s approach to a new British prime minister will be characterised by courtesy, respect and good faith. ... ... ...
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Fri 14 Jun, 2019 07:18 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Boris Johnson has claimed he can force the EU to deliver a fresh Brexit deal because it is terrified by the "existential threat" of Nigel Farage, as he finally agreed to a major interview.

The clear favourite for No 10 said the solution was "obvious" – to strip the Irish backstop out of the divorce agreement – and that Brussels would fold, despite its repeated refusal to do so.

"I think what they will see is that politics has changed in the UK and in Europe, they have now 29 Brexit MEPs in Strasbourg," Mr Johnson argued – while again vowing to deliver a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, if the EU refused. [BBC radio 4, World at One via PA]
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Jun, 2019 08:15 am
@Walter Hinteler,
The backstop can't possibly get the nod in London. Let's also be realistic about what the Brits can do. If they want to stem emigration from the 27, then they must either establish a hard border in NI or establish a hard birder between NI and the rest of the UK. The latter would of course be better for the island and peace, but the UK cannot envisage it, it's beyond their imagination.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Jun, 2019 08:32 am
@Olivier5,
beyond their imagination and politically (at least in the moment and near future) impossible in the UK.
georgeob1
 
  2  
Reply Fri 14 Jun, 2019 09:11 am
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:

This one is quite predictable, not the full extent but the date I mean. My advice is to get your money out of the stock market before Halloween.

Well the bull market is indeed getting a bit old - we're 12 years past the last recession and now have seen about 10 years of growth in equities , though at much higher rates during the last two plus years. International markets appear to be peaking , but I suspect our bull market has about a year to run, more if Trump is reelected. However, … watching carefully, and mindful of the fact that I can't predict the future any more reliably than can you or others.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Jun, 2019 09:22 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Therefore, there will most certainly be a hard border established between Eire and NI. They can and will hopefully try and make it as smooth and gentle as possible, but with ID checks. Otherwise any EU citizen will be able travel to the UK unchecked, through Ireland, thus defeating the very purpose of Brexit.

I feel for the Irish, I really do. But pagmatically the choice is between the following options:

1) the UK keeps some access to the common market AND a hard border is set up in NI;

2) the UK crashes out with no deal and can only access the common market under WTO rules AND a hard border is set up in NI.

I prefer option 1, to not disrupt the economy too much.

I think Ireland should realize that it cannot keep a smooth, unchecked access to the UK after Brexit, because that would render Brexit meaningless.

I absolutely hate to agree with the Johnson, but logically speaking, it's time to drop the backstop.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Sat 15 Jun, 2019 01:47 pm
@Olivier5,
Quote:
Leo Varadkar has said removing the Irish border backstop from the UK’s EU Withdrawal Agreement would be “effectively the same” as a no-deal Brexit.

The Irish premier added it was “alarming” that Conservative leadership candidates have proposed changes to the policy which safeguards against a hard border.

Boris Johnson, the frontrunner in the race to replace Theresa May as prime minister, is among those who have suggested ditching the backstop in favour of unspecified “alternative arrangements”.
The Independent
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 18 Jun, 2019 12:11 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, has said he believes his party would be “leaving me” if it cannot fully endorse a second referendum, hours after giving a speech in which he said it should be the party of remain.

Watson told the BBC that Labour “certainly might lose some votes” for backing a referendum, but would pay “a very high electoral price” for not taking a clear position on Brexit.

Asked if he might be prepared to leave the party without a clear change of direction, he said, “I’m never going to leave the Labour party,” but then added: “Sometimes I wonder whether the Labour party is leaving me.”

Watson said he had “no doubt” Labour’s position would change at the party’s annual conference in September, but said he feared “by then it will be too late”.

The deputy leader’s interview followed a speech he gave at a pro-EU thinktank arguing that Labour needed to make a better case for continued EU membership – even at this late hour.

Watson’s intervention was immediately criticised by the party chair Ian Lavery, a vociferous opponent of a second referendum. “Brexit has turned this country into a toxic nation. However, ignoring the 17.4 million leave voters isn’t politically smart nor indeed particularly democratic. Is it?” Lavery tweeted after Watson’s speech.
... ... ...
The Guardian
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 18 Jun, 2019 08:38 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
Germany lined up behind other EU states and official to warn that a new UK prime minister will not be able to renegotiate the Brexit withdrawal agreement struck between the EU and Theresa May.

Michael Roth, the country's EU affairs minister, warned that there was simply no appetite in the EU to re-open talks on the deal.

His warning – a reiteration of previous EU statements on the matter - comes as Tory leadership contenders line up to pledge changes to Brexit and further talks in Brussels.
The Independent
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 18 Jun, 2019 11:31 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Second round leadership results results with percentages, and changes from last Thursday:

Boris Johnson - 126 - up 12 - 40%
Jeremy Hunt – 46 - up 3 - 15%
Michael Gove – 41 - up 4 - 13%
Rory Stewart – 37 - up 18 - 12%
Sajid Javid – 33 - up 10 - 11%
Dominic Raab – 30 - up 3 - 10%
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 18 Jun, 2019 01:59 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Watched the debate on BBC.
Actually nothing what hadn't been said before. But interesting that Rory Stewart said the EU had made clear it will not renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement. And of his rival candidates, he said: "Every single one of these people is not explaining how they're going to do it." And he had said that MPs had to be honest and admit it will not be possible to negotiate a new deal by 31 October.
 

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