32
   

Brexit. Why do Brits want Out of the EU?

 
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Jun, 2019 08:52 am
@Walter Hinteler,
I agree that's a possibility in the case that Scotland tries to join the EU. However, I believe its also a real prospect for a number of EU countries, possibly including Spain, Italy and Germany. The earlier breakup of the former Czechoslovakia may well be a portent of other changes to come in the continuing dissolution of nation states in Europe, as EU governance replaces national functions.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 10 Jun, 2019 09:10 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:
The earlier breakup of the former Czechoslovakia ...
Czechoslovakia only existed between 1918 and 1993.
I have some doubts that the peaceful dissolution had been EU-related.

georgeob1 wrote:
... other changes to come in the continuing dissolution of nation states in Europe, as EU governance replaces national functions.
Might be so. But smaller national countries (like your example Scotland, add Catalonia) want to be EU-members.
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Mon 10 Jun, 2019 11:22 am
The unification of Italy was pretty heroic, deliberate and sanctioned by popular vote. It did not happen like in the UK, Spain or France through the slow accretion of vassals to a kingdom, irrespective of what the people wanted. As a result, I don't see Italy as potentially breaking up. Spain, the UK and France are better candidates. I leave the case of Germany to Walter, but it seems close to the Italian case, ie resulting from a deliberate unification movement.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 10 Jun, 2019 11:24 am
@georgeob1,
A quote from Eurozine's recent report (First published by Journal of Democracy 3/2018) Explaining eastern Europe
Quote:
German democracy rests on the assumption that nationalism leads ineluctably to Nazism. The transnational EU originated as part of a geopolitical strategy to block a potentially dangerous reassertion of German sovereignty by integrating the country economically into the rest of Europe and by giving the Federal Republic a ‘post-national’ identity. In Germany, as a result, ethno-nationalism came close to being criminalized. Central and eastern Europeans, by contrast, find it difficult to share such a negative view of nationalism – first, because their states are children of the age of nationalism that accompanied the breakup of multinational empires; and second, because nationalism played an essential role in the mostly nonviolent anti-communist revolutions that began in 1989.

In central and eastern Europe, unlike in Germany, nationalism and liberalism are likely to be seen as mutually supporting rather than clashing ideas. Poles would find it absurd to cease honouring the nationalistic leaders who lost their lives defending Poland against Hitler or Stalin. The region also was forced to suffer for decades under communist propaganda that reflexively, indeed numbingly, denounced nationalism. Here is perhaps another reason why central and eastern Europeans feel wary of Germany’s obsessive desire to detach citizenship from hereditary membership in a national community. ... ... ...
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 11 Jun, 2019 01:00 am
@Walter Hinteler,
What will happen next with Brexit? We'll have to wait until the Tories have a new leader.
Most of the candidates are determined to rush headlong into the same Brexit impasse as May. But that can change daily.
The EU27 will not reopen the withdrawal agreement. The baseline scenario remains: new PM goes to Brussels, Brussels refuses to renegotiate, new PM ask parliament to approve no deal, parliament refuses.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 12 Jun, 2019 05:03 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
Boris Johnson has launched his Conservative leadership campaign with a pledge to end the Brexit "disillusion and despair" by taking the UK out of the EU on 31 October.

It comes amid questions over a shock poll suggesting he would win a general election landslide as prime minister.

The ComRes survey for the Daily Telegraph – which pays the former foreign secretary £275,000 for a weekly column – said Mr Johnson’s Tories would win 37 per cent of the vote, which the paper claimed would translate to a 140-seat majority following analysis by the Electoral Calculus website.

Meanwhile, MPs prepared an attempt to block the possibility of any new prime minister proroguing parliament and forcing through a no-deal Brexit, as former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has proposed.
The Independent (live blog)
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Jun, 2019 05:29 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
t will take “six to eight months” to build up supplies of medicines for a no-deal Brexit, a leaked cabinet note says – undermining Boris Johnson’s threat to crash out of the EU on 31 October.

The warning says the pharmaceutical industry needs that period of help from the government “to ensure adequate arrangements are in place to build stockpiles of medicines”.

It also says that it would take “at least 4-5 months” to make traders ready for the new border checks that might be required, including incentives to register for fresh schemes.

The note was revealed by The Financial Times as Mr Johnson – the overwhelming favourite to succeed Theresa May – launched his campaign on a pledge to leave the EU on 31 October “deal or no deal”.

It states that, while government departments had delivered around 85 per cent of their “core no-deal plans”, many of those provided only “a minimum viable level of capability”.

Prepared for a cabinet discussion on 21 May, it was never circulated because Ms May was concentrating at the time on her doomed attempt to force through her withdrawal agreement.

After that attempt collapsed, the prime minister announced her plans to resign – throwing the country into the uncertainty of the Tory leadership race.
Source as above
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 12 Jun, 2019 06:48 am
@Walter Hinteler,
A no-deal Brexit will create severe problems for Northern Irish businesses and oblige the Republic of Ireland to build border inspection posts, a report has warned.
Firms will have “limited room for manoeuvre” as they face an array of export checks, inspections and declarations, according to the report, which was commissioned by Northern Ireland’s Department for the Economy.

NI Department for the Economy: Irish land border - existing and potential customs facilitations in a no-deal scenario
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 12 Jun, 2019 10:35 am
@Walter Hinteler,
MPs have rejected a Labour-led effort to take control of Parliament's timetable, blocking the latest attempt to stop no-deal Brexit.
The Commons opposed the move by 309 votes to 298.
tsarstepan
 
  1  
Reply Wed 12 Jun, 2019 11:15 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

MPs have rejected a Labour-led effort to take control of Parliament's timetable, blocking the latest attempt to stop no-deal Brexit.
The Commons opposed the move by 309 votes to 298.

Is this the closest the Labour party has come to actually breaking Brexit since the initial national vote?
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 12 Jun, 2019 11:23 am
@tsarstepan,
Actually it was a cross-party "opposition motion".

https://i.imgur.com/R11e2uh.jpg


Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 12 Jun, 2019 11:37 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
It was certainly a relatively comfortable victory for the government: a majority of 11, compared with its defeat on the Cooper-Letwin bill, which passed by one vote in April.

A no-deal could perhaps be stopped now only by bringing down the government ... if the future prime minister were to try to take Britain out of the EU without a deal (which seems very possible).
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 07:55 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Boris Johnson is on course for Number 10 after landslide first-round victory.
Johnson scooped 114 votes, against Hunt’s 43 and Gove‘s 37.
The former foreign secretary’s tally took him beyond the 105 required in the final round of MPs’ votes next week in order to progress to the postal ballot of 160,000 party members which will select the final winner.
Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsom and Mark Harper were knocked out after failing to meet the threshold of 17 votes required to progress to the next round of voting on Tuesday, but international development secretary Rory Stewart, who has ruled out a no-deal Brexit, scraped through with 19.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 08:40 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Just a reminder, what "no-deal" means:
• the UK would immediately leave the European Union (EU) with no agreement about the "divorce" process,
• the UK would leave the single market and customs union overnight
• the UK would immediately leave EU institutions such as the European Court of Justice, Europol, Euratom, etc etc,
• dozens of EU bodies that govern rules on everything from medicines to trade marks would end
• the UK would no longer contribute to the EU budget - currently about £9bn a year,
• the UK would no longer get money from the EU (roughly of what is paid),
• European Health Insurance Cards (EHIC) and driving licences would be invalid after a no-deal Brexit,
• and there's quite a bit more, especially for UK citizens living/working in the EU and vice versa.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 08:44 am
@Walter Hinteler,
I seriously doubt the Johnson can deliver an orderly Brexit. Not the Johnson we know in any case. He would have to reinvent himself as less clownish and a much better listener... That's not gonna happen.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 09:02 am
@Walter Hinteler,
I conclude that an "orderly" Brexit is not a possibility in any event: The broad spectrum of intrusive EU administrative processes makes it impossible.

However things like drivers licenses and health insurance cards (for governments that maintain their own public systems) are rather easily replaced. The UK has its own courts & judicial system that can rather easily replace the functions of their EU counterparts. Indeed it appears (to me at least) that it is the increasingly intrusive EU systems themselves that the British are trying to escape. The status of UK citizens living & working in the Continent will have to be established by the host countries, as will that of other Europeans living & working in the UK. In this area, and in their mutual trade & commerce, there are incentives for both sides to find workable solutions in their mutual interests.

Recent events suggest that neither side will approach these matters in a practical way until the necessity to do so arrives.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 09:04 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
EU officials are working on the basis that the UK’s economy will be hit up to ten times as hard by a no-deal Brexit than the UK, the latest analysis by the European Commission shows.

The working assumption in Brussels is bad news for Tory leadership contenders like Boris Johnson, who are hoping to use the threat of a no-deal Brexit as part of their strategy for renegotiating Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

But with the EU convinced that the UK will fare much worse than the continent if it decides to crash out, the brinkmanship may struggle to produce results.

A “state of play” document put out by the Commission this week, meant to brief EU leaders, MEPs, and central bankers on the current situation, cites a 2019 estimate by the IMF that the long-term effect on the EU’s GDP by a no-deal will be “well below 1 per cent”. The Commission says his is “in line with most other studies”

By contrast, when looking at how the fares, the Commission cites figures ranging from 3 per cent to 8 per cent for the hit to the UK economy, including the British government’s own 2018 estimate of 7.7 per cent.

“As the Commission has constantly stressed, contingency measures can only mitigate the most significant disruptions of a withdrawal without an agreement. While the Commission does not speculate on the possible economic implications of different scenarios, it is clear that a withdrawal of the United Kingdom without an agreement would have a serious negative economic impact, and that this impact would be proportionally much greater in the united Kingdom than the EU27 member states,” the document says.

“Preparations by member states and stakeholders are likely to reduce their individual exposure to the negative impact of a withdrawal without an agreement. A high level of preparedness across all sectors of the economy will also mitigate the negative impact.”

The economic assumptions are based on the British economy being subject to WTO “most favoured nation” tariffs, which apply to WTO members in absence of other agreements. Under the withdrawal agreement struck by the UK, a multi-year transition period would apply during which the UK continued to benefit from EU policies, while a replacement deal was negotiated.

The judgment comes just days after a leaked UK cabinet paper warned that the UK was not ready for a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, when the current extension of the Article 50 period will expire if it is not extended again.

The note, obtained by the Financial Times, said it would take “six to eight months” to build up supplies of medicines for a no-deal, and that the it would take “at least 4-5 months” to make traders ready for new border checks that might be required.

The EU has constantly said at all levels that it will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement struck by Theresa May, which was rejected by MPs back in the UK three times and which precipitated the prime minister’s resignation. The deal has been rejected by all leading candidates in the Tory leadership race, who advocate various forms of renegotiation with the bloc.
The Independent


0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  2  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 09:18 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:

I conclude that an "orderly" Brexit is not a possibility in any event: The broad spectrum of intrusive EU administrative processes makes it impossible.

Errr... the deal on the table makes for an orderly Brexit. It's ready. It's done. There's nothing impossible about it.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 09:32 am
@Olivier5,
No argument there. However the discussion lately appears to be based on the assumption that a "no deal" Brexit will occur, and my comments were, rather obviously, based on that assumption ( though, as indicated, I believe that, with or without a deal, post Brexit actions by both parties will be required and will likely occur.)

I believe that a Brexit, either under the terms negotiated or without them, will involve subsequent actions and agreements among the parties to resolve trade and other maters in their mutual interest, and that until the necessity to do so arises, neither party will approach these matters in practical way.
Olivier5
 
  1  
Reply Thu 13 Jun, 2019 10:15 am
@georgeob1,
That's not really how i see the dynamics here. I venture the following.

The UK has always wanted to discuss the future relationship and the departure modalities together, as one issue. That's because they see Brexit as the search for a new, rebooted relationship with the EU, or if you preffer, as a reform of their present relationship so that they can benefit more from it. Hence for them there's only one issue: how to reform the present relationship.

That's not the way the 27 sees Brexit at all. They say in essence: "there cannot be a tailor-made membership in the EU: either you're in the club or you're out, the rules apply to all members equally. So let's agree with the conditions of your departure from the club (ie "Brexit"). Once this is agreed, the other, unrelated issue of your future relationship with the club can be discussed."

The deal on the table is like a hotel bill. It says how much arrears they must pay, and then at the bottom of the bill there's this nice commercial phrase: "we remain at your service and look forward to hosting you next time!" When the client signs on that bill and pays, he can come back some other time, negotiating a special room if he wants to. If the client doesn't pay, well, he won't be welcome next time.

What the client CANNOT do, though, is conflate his checking out negotiation with a negotiation on what the rate will be next time he stays in the hotel. These are two different pieces of business that should have nothing to see with one another.
 

Related Topics

THE BRITISH THREAD II - Discussion by jespah
FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN UNION - Discussion by Mapleleaf
The United Kingdom's bye bye to Europe - Discussion by Walter Hinteler
Amanda Knox - Discussion by ossobuco
Sinti and Roma: History repeating - Discussion by Walter Hinteler
[B]THE RED ROSE COUNTY[/B] - Discussion by Mathos
Leaving today for Europe - Discussion by cicerone imposter
So you think you know Europe? - Discussion by nimh
 
Copyright © 2019 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.03 seconds on 10/14/2019 at 12:00:35