nimh wrote:
A lot of your argument seems to hinge on the assumption that Israel will indeed cease with the incursions, assassinations and road blocks once the wall is up. I would say that is indeed a mere assumption.
It
is a mere assumption. Just like anything about the future is mere assumption to some degree.
But it is also based on very careful study of this conflict. If the wall is successful in preventing terrorist attacks it is unlikely that Israel will have the political capital to engage in many of their activities.
Most of their moves really need a Palestinian bombing to use as a pretext for a retaliation that was planned before the bombing.
Quote: But I dont believe for a moment that just because they've got the wall up, they'll suddenly refrain from the opportunity to bomb a Hamas honcho, for example.
It's not the wall that will prevent them from doing so but rather the absence of attacks.
If the wall is successful in eliminating the attacks they will be hard pressed to garner the political capital for assasinations.
Even with the terror attacks to respond to the US leaned on Israel quite hard for some of those assasinations.
If Israel were assasinating people in the prolonged absence of attacks the US, for one, would be wicked pissed. They wouldn't be able to paint it as self-defence anymore, it would look like initiating aggression.
Quote:The result might well be and/and: both the wall and incursions, assassinations and bombings.
Well, IMO this will only happen if the wall can't eliminate the terror.
I want more than a wall. I want hermetically sealling the country.
I posit that if there are NO terrorist attacks whatsoever Israel will have no political capital to assasinate. I posit that if there are NO terrorist attacks Israel will have little internal political pressure to assasinate.