Probability, Creation and Evolution

Reply Thu 8 Jan, 2015 04:07 pm
Do you know of any studies of creation and evolution theories from the standpoint of probability alone, without the influence of religion and scientific tradition? From what I've heard, it is far more likely that life on earth was "seeded" from an asteroid from another planet rather than spontaneously generated. Ironically the bible thumpers never seem to get the big picture, even if life on earth was created by John Q. God, a biogenetic engineer who studied at the intergalactic university, that merely backtracks the original creation of intelligent life by a few million years. From a probability point of view, what's a reasonable timeline of the universe and life on earth?
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Reply Thu 8 Jan, 2015 08:43 pm
@Banana Breath,
genetic expression among large populations is most often done by statistical methods.
The Hardy Weinberg distribution is a binomial expansion.
Dolo's LAw is a statistical expression of why certain traits are not RE-evolved. (But Im not sure that this is even an accepted "law" nymore)

Paleoecology uses statistical analyses to determine an environment by sedimentology and the morphological expressions in large fossil assemblages that contain varying numbers of species. (Usually large numbers of one a few species or less, indicates a stressed paleoenvironment). The Marcellus Shale was , a long time ago, mapped as a continuous body of sedimentary rocks with a specific breakout of certain brachiopod fossils in a specific sedimentological basin. (Turns out that this became a tool to find gas deposits)

Creationism uses probability to develop reasons for why evolution is NOT possible
Reply Thu 8 Jan, 2015 08:49 pm
@Banana Breath,
I'm not sure how a study of probability alone would answer the question of how it actually happened, as the most probable thing doesn't always happen. Let's say, for example, that it's almost certain for life to arise out of the terrestrial primordial soup, but then suddenly an asteroid crashes into it and seeds the soup before it could get started on its own. I don't see any escape from the need for physical evidence.
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Banana Breath
Reply Thu 8 Jan, 2015 09:08 pm
Scientific American and the Goldschmidt conference on geochemistry are pretty far from creationism, but they've seriously considered the possibility that life on earth resulted from meteor impacts on a then-fertile Mars thus seeding microbe-laden material onto earth.


Simulation and statistical analyses by Rachel Worth at Penn State also suggest that meteor strikes on earth likely seeded other planets and moons in our solar system and possibly beyond.

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