Ebola in The USA

@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

Don't be such an ass. I probably use more math daily than you have ever learned.

That's exceedingly unlikely. I won't elaborate., but it is very much in character for you to make assertions about things you can't possibly know. That's not a good indicator of your reliability.

We don't yet know for sure that patient zero did not infect any of the folks he came in contact with. We don't yet know if the second nurse (who took a flight after she became symptomatic) has infected anyone else. Not enough time has passed for all potential recipients of the virus to become symptomatic.

Hawkeye is right. All it takes for exponential growth is for each person on the chain to, on average, infect more than one recipient. I agree, based on available, data the odds are against it. However even a (say) 5% probability of exponential growth of the disease is a very big deal in terms of its consequences.

1 Reply

@hawkeye10,

That is a fail (no one is disputing that). But it isn't exponential growth.

By your math, there have been 3 infected people, and two new infections. So the average is 0.67 (which you state will get the bug killed). I am not saying that this math is valid... but even by your math we are OK.

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@georgeob1,

The medical experts know more than that George. They know how the virus is spread and the likelihood of transmission. They have even had the chance to study the outbreak in West Africa and they understand the factors that are making it spread so fast there. And now they have seen how unlikely it is for ebola to spread in the US after public exposure (which confirms what they already knew).

That is why they can say with confidence that there is no significant chance of an epidemic in the US.

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@maxdancona,

You are not paying attention. We don't yet know that no one else in this chain was infected. Not enough time has passed to be sure. We didn't know the 2nd nurse was infected until about 10 days after she was in unprotected contact with the patient before he was diagnosed with the disease. If it is indeed true that there are no more infections, and the chain has been broken in this case, we are OK. We were reassured reassured on that matter repeatedly by "experts" who should know better, but, despite that, we have two new cases among hospital workers, and at least one of them was exposed to many people after becoming symptomatic.

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@maxdancona,

Quote:

The people who who actually understand the disease, who have worked with it, who have researched it and studied it, are saying there is no significant risk of an epidemic in the US.

they were also saying that it was highly unlikely that it would ever come to america. They also never dreamed that they would see an outbreak with 10,000 infected much less 10,000 a week as they do now. They also said it was killing 50%, now they say 70%, what will they be saying next week?

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@georgeob1,

We actually do. Patient 0 was isolated more than 21 days ago, so any of his public contacts that would have contracted the disease would already have presented.

They can, and will, do a lot more to prevent medical workers from being infected in the future. Whatever lead to this breach will be addressed. The experts have never said that there won't be cases in the US. They have never said that medical workers wouldn't be infected. That there have been 3 cases isn't surprising.

I think most medical experts are expecting dozens of cases in the US.

All they are saying is that there is no significant risk of an epidemic in the US (where the disease is spreading out of control). The medical experts have good reason to be confident about this. They have explained it clearly, they know what they are talking about and the recent events (that the disease was proved to not be easily transmitted in the US) have supported this fact.

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@hawkeye10,

Quote:

they were also saying that it was highly unlikely that it would ever come to america.

I don't believe this, in fact I think it is completely untrue that any medical experts said any of this.

Do you have a link (or are you making it up)?

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Quote:

So, could the Ebola virus come to the United States? Definitely. Would it spread widely? Unlikely.

"We do not anticipate this will spread in the U.S. if an infected person is hospitalized here," CDC Director Tom Frieden said in a statement Tuesday. "We are taking action now by alerting health care workers in the U.S. and reminding them how to isolate and test suspected patients while following strict infection-control procedures.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/07/140729-ebola-america-disease-epidemic-africa-medicine-science/

July 29

The CDC has completely failed at its own stated mission, which we know because at least two medical staff have been infected by one carrier.

We are supposed to have confidence in these guys?

that to me says that these guys did not take this seriously, they never really thought that the bug would get here. They said what they were expected to say and then they did nothing.

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@hawkeye10,

spot on!

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@maxdancona,

maxdancona wrote:

Quote:
Keep in mind, some of these "medical experts" were the one assuring us that the hospital and staff had been thoroughly vetted to safely handle the patient...yet two of the staff have become infected."

Could you please provide a link to this?

I certainly have heard it reported...with comments such as, "Protocols are in place and being followed which will prevent the disease from being transmitted to the most at risk people...the health workers treating any patients."

I've searched the net for actual quotes of that sort of thing...and I acknowledge that I have not been able to retrieve any. But I did read them.

Here is a quote from a link given earlier by someone else that comes close:

Quote:

"We do not anticipate this will spread in the U.S. if an infected person is hospitalized here," CDC Director Tom Frieden said in a statement Tuesday. "We are taking action now by alerting health care workers in the U.S. and reminding them how to isolate and test suspected patients while following strict infection-control procedures."

American hospitals are adequately supplied with infection-control equipment like gloves, gowns, and masks that will prevent the spread of the disease. American medical care workers—educated by the AIDS epidemic—know how to keep themselves safe while treating sick patients. And the American system of reporting illness would identify a sick patient very quickly, allowing the disease to be contained and controlled.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/07/140729-ebola-america-disease-epidemic-africa-medicine-science/

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The first nurse to contract the disease, one of seventy people who treated Duncan, the patient from Liberia, graduated from nursing school four years ago and was certified in critical care procedures two months ago.
Obliviously, her training in critical care was not sufficient to protect her, but, it is indicative that only she and the one other (flying!) nurse got infected.
(I know, I know....we have to wait some more time...to know for sure.)

There seems to me to be a certain dichotomy between the public's near panic over this situation and the hospital staff's pretty chill attitude towards taking the appropriate precautions.
(You apparently have to be extremely carefully when removing the gear to avoid any portion of the outside of the gear touching any portion of your skin even momentarily. )

I would love to know why the second nurse HAD to fly to Ohio, anybody know?

Joe(really? You have to fly?)Nation

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@Joe Nation,

I've visited the old lady, we look at, in a quarantine room in the hospital recently quite often. Vitors had to "dress" themselves, but there were clear instructions, with pictures (and not only pictograms) how to properly dress and undress.
Some nurses went in and out as if it was a usual room (That lady had nothing, btw, but it wasn't know at that time.)

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Maybe the spread has something to do with a healthcare system that puts profits ahead of patient care and staff welfare.

Over here if you have to visit someone in hospital, in every ward, not just the ones with infectious diseases, there are alcohol hand sterilisers telling you to clean your hands before and leaving the ward.

Is it time to start screening flights from America?

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@Joe Nation,

Wedding planning (her own?) with her mother who I guess lives in Cleveland.

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@Joe Nation,

Letting this nurse fly to her wedding plans was more of a PR disaster than a medical one. The chance that she would infect anyone else was pretty darn low.

That being said, it was a dumb move.

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@maxdancona,

Quote:

We actually do. Patient 0 was isolated more than 21 days ago, so any of his public contacts that would have contracted the disease would already have presented.

Not yet. He was isolated on Sept 28th. The only contact group that has actually cleared the 21 day incubation period are the people who flew with him from Liberia and the UK.

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@izzythepush,

izzythepush wrote:

Over here if you have to visit someone in hospital, in every ward, not just the ones with infectious diseases, there are alcohol hand sterilisers telling you to clean your hands before and leaving the ward.

You get those here ... in front of nearly every room plus some "automatic" ones at the entrances (working similar to the Dyson hand dryers).

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http://media.cagle.com/77/2014/10/15/154948_600.jpg

Speaking of over feared threats in the US:

http://media.cagle.com/76/2014/10/16/154953_600.jpg

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Maid fired due to NBC correspondent Nancy Snyderman after she violated Ebola quarantine: report
Snyderman had been in contact with her crew, one of whom went inside The Peasant Grill in Princeton, N.J. to pick up food, TMZ reported. The brief contact sent the restaurant into a frenzy, and caused a maid whose brother is the chef of the restaurant to get fired, according to the gossip site.
BY Corinne Lestch
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Thursday, October 16, 2014, 10:04 AM

http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1976345.1413468063!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_970/nup-158573-0174-jpg.jpg

Nancy Snyderman reportedly got a maid fired after going to get food from a restaurant in New Jersey.

A maid in New Jersey was reportedly fired because NBC chief medical correspondent Nancy Snyderman violated her Ebola quarantine to grab some grub.

Snyderman had been in contact with her crew, one of whom went inside The Peasant Grill in Princeton, N.J. to pick up food, TMZ reported.

The brief contact sent the restaurant into a frenzy, and caused a maid whose brother is the chef of the restaurant to get fired, according to the gossip site.

The maid was only named as “Vilma” by TMZ.

Two homeowners apparently told Vilma that she couldn’t work with them until it was clear she didn’t come into contact with someone with the disease, the site reported.

Snyderman, 62, was one of seven people quarantined after cameraman Ashoka Mukpo tested positive for Ebola while working in Liberia.

1 Reply

@JPB,

Time points since exposure and their associated 21 day incubation (endpoints) include:

Duncan traveled to US: Sep 20 (Oct 4) - no cases reported
Duncan public contacts in US: Sep 20 - Sep 28 (Oct 19) no cases reported to date
Duncan medical contacts in US including cremation: Sep 26 - Oct 10 (Oct 31) two cases reported
Public contacts of nurse #1: Oct 12 (Nov 2)
Medical contacts of nurse #1: Oct 12 - ongoing (21 days post treatment)
Public contacts of nurse #2: Oct 13 (Nov 3)
Medical contacts of nurse #2 Oct 13 - ongoing (21 days post treatment)

Note: patient X has been receiving treatment at Emory University since Sept 9 and is still hospitalized. To date none of his contacts/care providers have shown any symptoms of disease.

Quote:

Sept. 9, 2014 – An unnamed American Ebola patient arrives at Emory University Hospital for treatment. This patient had been working for the World Health Organization in Sierra Leone. The patient was still there as of Oct. 15, 2014. "Given the national focus on Ebola, particularly with the diagnosis in two health care workers, I want to share the news that I am recovering from this disease, and that I anticipate being discharged very soon, free from the Ebola virus and able to return safely to my family and to my community," the unnamed patient said in a statement released on Oct. 15. Source

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Ebola in The USA

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