7
   

Is the question "is there a formula you can use to consistently profit at roulette?" NP complete

 
 
maxdancona
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 11:13 am
@Numberman1,
Quote:
In response to your points 2, 3, and 4, the study of roulette is actually my area of expertise so there is little you can tell me, factually or mythically that i dont already know. It would be unfair of me to say you are wrong and not offer an arguement based on proof, but i disagree with all of what you said but cannot tell you why you are wrong. Please dont take that as an insult or me being ignorant or arrogant, i simply have a different belief to what you and the majority of the people who know the game do.


This is a math question. There is a right answer and a wrong answer. You might have a different belief, but what you are saying is mathematically incorrect.

And, I can offer you a proof.

Let's imagine a simple roulette game and I can show you how the math works.

Let's imagine a simple roulette wheel with 50 red squares, 50 black squares and 2 gold squares. You pay me any amount of money (up to the amount that you have) to spin and guess red or black. If you guess correctly I give you twice the amount you paid. If you guess incorrectly (or if a gold square is chosen) you get nothing.

The Expected Value for this game is (B * 50 - B * 52)/102 or -(1/51)B.

This is a negative expected value. I challenge you to come up with a strategy where any series of bets (adjusted however you like) doesn't come up with a negative expected value.

The standard roulette strategy is called the "Martingale" strategy. This is where you bet $5 on the first bet. If you win you get $5 and quit while you are ahead. If you lose you then bet $10. If you win this you quit (ahead $5) if you lose you bet $20... and so on. The theory is that playing forever, eventually you are up $5.

This sounds clever... but of course it is mathematically invalid.

Let's say you have enough money to lose 7 times (that would be $640) that means you have a high chance of winning $5 (a small amount of money) and a small chance of losing a very large amount of money.

Of course, losing 7 times in a row happens 1 in 111 times ( that is (1/(52/102))^7 ).

That means that 110 out of 111 times using this strategy (starting with $5 bet and then adjusting your bet until you either win or run out of money) you would say "woo hoo! I won $5", but one out of 111 times you would say "damn, I lost $640".

If you do this series 111 times you would expect to win $555 and lose $640 (a net loss of $85). This is expected because each spin has negative expected value.

You don't come ahead on these types of schemes.



glitterbag
 
  2  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 11:30 am
@Numberman1,
Numberman1 wrote:

LOL!! Thats funny... Please do join in the conversation, any serious insight or thoughts you may have on the matter will be much appreciated...
Remember though, this is not a conversation about IF there is a way/formula to consistanlty profit, the QUESTION is about HOW COMPLEX that formula would have to be, and whether the wording of the question given the known facts makes the problem of Finding out that formula NP? IF THAT MAKES SENSE..?? ;P


I wish I could, but I'm not much of a gambler. If I do bet on horses or slots, I'm bush league. I devote a small amount of money, assume I'm going to lose it, if I start winning, I quit or I quit when the $20 bucks are gone. I like watching others, but never developed the passion for it. Sorry to be so dull, I know some people love it, I just find it confusing. However if you deposit 5 grand in my bank account I will mail you the secret.
maxdancona
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 12:16 pm
@glitterbag,
There are occasionally gambling opportunities that have a positive expected value. Of course, casinos are careful not to offer these opportunities since the money that gamblers won in this case would come out of their pockets.

Poker is an example since skill improves your chance of winning (and you are playing against other customers, not against the casino). If you play poker with people who are bad enough compared with you to overcome the casino's cut, you can make money.

There are also rare occasions in lotteries. There was an example recently where a local lottery had prizes with a positive expected value. This is because the prizes were based on the prize fund, and if no one won on one cycle, the money was cycled through. Some MIT kids figured this out and there was a buzz on the internet and the tickets sold out. I am pretty sure they changed the rules of the lottery so this can't happen again.
Numberman1
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 12:28 pm
@maxdancona,

First off, you didnt address any of the points i made in response to your previous #1 point. And that is where the answer for my original question lies so if you could do that in your next response and let me know step by step if what i have proposed as facts can be regarded as truth.

Secondly, i asked that we no longer talk about the ACTUAL MATH involved because it would then turn into an arguement about what we each both believe about maths and its application in roulette. Im sorry if this sounds insulting, but your mathematical proofs are meaningless when you know what i know.
There IS a formula which you can use to do this.
Unfortunatly i cannot divulge the proofs at this point in time because i regard this to be one of the greatest discoveries of our time, im not just gonna go round telling people a formula which i would like to eventually recieve the credit for. Even Albert Einstien said that it was an impossibility to win at roulette, based upon his own understanding of math but i assert that he was wrong. Now i in no way think i am as smart a human being as Einstien, but I KNOW WITH CERTAINTY THAT ABOUT ROULETTE, HE WAS WRONG. AND I CAN PROVE IT. Now why on earth would i give the proofs to such an ENORMOUS discovery to some random guy in an internet forum and display it for all and sundry to use it and claim as thier own... Like i said, im relatively smart and have worked for the past 4 years to get to this solution im not foolish enough to just start broadcasting my exact findings to people.
However, in order to prove it, i must let the formula be known and it must be verified. this simply cannot happen at this point because of the far reaching implications of it becoming common knowledge.
Now i know that i must obviously sound crazy, but just consider for a moment the possible cosequences of this formula becoming common knowledge:
#1 EVERYBODY WILL HAVE ACCESS TO A FORMULA WHICH WOULD GUARANTEE WINNING AT ROULETTE.
#2 BECAUSE OF THE CASINOS INABILITY TO COMBAT THE FORMULA, THEY NOW HAVE TO EITHER
#A) CHANGE THE RULES OF THE GAME
#B) STOP OFFERING ROULETTE
#C) CONCIOUSLY START CHEATING ITS CUSTOMERS
#3 WHAT HAPPENS IF #A OR #B OCCUR...???
If #B were to occur there would be, ECONOMIC LOSS STARTING WITH CASINO PROFITS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO TAX which would affect the wider community, JOB LOSSES FOR THOSE AFFECTED BY THE GAMES REMOVAL again affecting the wider community... This is just the start of the domino effect. Now imagine that on a global scale!!

DO YOU SEE WHERE IM GOING WITH THIS.....???
I have to ask myself wheter or not it is worth publishing. Now the only reason to do so is if within the formula there is other value. That is, can the formula be applied to other scenarios and be useful..

Which is where P=NP comes into play. Esentially the formula to know with certainty that it is going to make a profit would be one which GUARANTEES a positive expected value everytime and since you say that this is Mathematically Incorrect or Invalid, then it is an impossibility and cannot ever be verified.

THEREFORE DOES THE P NOW BECOME NP?
Would the formula prove that P=NP?

Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 12:34 pm
@Numberman1,
Numberman1 wrote:


First off, you didnt address any of the points i made in response to your previous #1 point. And that is where the answer for my original question lies so if you could do that in your next response and let me know step by step if what i have proposed as facts can be regarded as truth.

Secondly, i asked that we no longer talk about the ACTUAL MATH involved because it would then turn into an arguement about what we each both believe about maths and its application in roulette. Im sorry if this sounds insulting, but your mathematical proofs are meaningless when you know what i know.
There IS a formula which you can use to do this.
Unfortunatly i cannot divulge the proofs at this point in time because i regard this to be one of the greatest discoveries of our time, im not just gonna go round telling people a formula which i would like to eventually recieve the credit for. Even Albert Einstien said that it was an impossibility to win at roulette, based upon his own understanding of math but i assert that he was wrong. Now i in no way think i am as smart a human being as Einstien, but I KNOW WITH CERTAINTY THAT ABOUT ROULETTE, HE WAS WRONG. AND I CAN PROVE IT. Now why on earth would i give the proofs to such an ENORMOUS discovery to some random guy in an internet forum and display it for all and sundry to use it and claim as thier own... Like i said, im relatively smart and have worked for the past 4 years to get to this solution im not foolish enough to just start broadcasting my exact findings to people.
However, in order to prove it, i must let the formula be known and it must be verified. this simply cannot happen at this point because of the far reaching implications of it becoming common knowledge.
Now i know that i must obviously sound crazy, but just consider for a moment the possible cosequences of this formula becoming common knowledge:
#1 EVERYBODY WILL HAVE ACCESS TO A FORMULA WHICH WOULD GUARANTEE WINNING AT ROULETTE.
#2 BECAUSE OF THE CASINOS INABILITY TO COMBAT THE FORMULA, THEY NOW HAVE TO EITHER
#A) CHANGE THE RULES OF THE GAME
#B) STOP OFFERING ROULETTE
#C) CONCIOUSLY START CHEATING ITS CUSTOMERS
#3 WHAT HAPPENS IF #A OR #B OCCUR...???
If #B were to occur there would be, ECONOMIC LOSS STARTING WITH CASINO PROFITS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO TAX which would affect the wider community, JOB LOSSES FOR THOSE AFFECTED BY THE GAMES REMOVAL again affecting the wider community... This is just the start of the domino effect. Now imagine that on a global scale!!

DO YOU SEE WHERE IM GOING WITH THIS.....???
I have to ask myself wheter or not it is worth publishing. Now the only reason to do so is if within the formula there is other value. That is, can the formula be applied to other scenarios and be useful..

Which is where P=NP comes into play. Esentially the formula to know with certainty that it is going to make a profit would be one which GUARANTEES a positive expected value everytime and since you say that this is Mathematically Incorrect or Invalid, then it is an impossibility and cannot ever be verified.

THEREFORE DOES THE P NOW BECOME NP?
Would the formula prove that P=NP?




Does this end up with a request for a deposit of $10,000 in a Nigerian bank?
maxdancona
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 12:34 pm
@Numberman1,
Quote:
Secondly, i asked that we no longer talk about the ACTUAL MATH involved because it would then turn into an arguement about what we each both believe about maths and its application in roulette. Im sorry if this sounds insulting, but your mathematical proofs are meaningless when you know what i know.


This isn't insulting. It is just ridiculous. I was actually kind of taking you seriously up to this point.

Any casino is happy to have people like you walking through their door.

By the way, if you are ever in the Boston area and want to come to my poker game, please please please send me a personal message. I will even set up a roulette table just for you.
glitterbag
 
  2  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 12:43 pm
@maxdancona,
Oh I buy lottery tickets, but only when the pot is huge. I know that's the stupid way to do it, but it's like a luxury vacation, I spend $10, and then we play "what would be the first thing you would do".

My parents and grandparents loved to play cards. My mom's younger sister is so skilled, she had me on speaker phone while she played canasta with her sons, husband and the oldest grandchildren. She made me dizzy. But the generations before me, didn't have radio or TV, if they were lucky they had a piano. So everybody played cards, sang and entertained each other.

I know my great-grandfather was a devoted poker player. Apparently he would play with unsavory folks and was lucky to get home with all his skin attached. When I was about 10, they were playing pinochle, so I asked them to teach me how to play. My great grandfather sat on my right, Grand dad on my left and I got to hold the cards. They would take turns picking and replacing my cards, I didn't have a clue because neither one said a word. They never took their eyes off the cards and played like all of our lives depended on it. They even played my hand to win, they liked winning, even if it was my hand.

I do like cards, and when I play I play as if money was on the table, but if there is money on the table, for me it stops being fun.

I do appreciate the skill level involved, but people change when money is at stake.

maxdancona
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 12:47 pm
@glitterbag,
Quote:
Oh I buy lottery tickets, but only when the pot is huge. I know that's the stupid way to do it, but it's like a luxury vacation, I spend $10, and then we play "what would be the first thing you would do".


Lottery tickets aren't worth it if you think in terms of the money. The expected value of a typical $1 ticket (i.e. the amount of each prize divided by your chance of winning it) is well below 50 cents.

But they are sometimes worth it in terms of entertainment value. I get a ticket one time a year, at Christmas, and I do enjoy it.

You shouldn't buy very many of them since 1 ticket doesn't bring any more enjoyment than 10.

I also played roulette one time, I had $50 and needed $70 for the poker tournament I wanted to enter. I figured a $20 bet was worth it, since if I won I would be able to play poker. I lost and made another bet on roulette (on a couple of numbers) that would get me $70. I lost that and went home, but I still think these bets were worth it.

Romeo Fabulini
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 12:48 pm
If some people use a formula for winning at roulette, why haven't they bankrupted all the casinos long before now?
Numberman1
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 12:54 pm
@maxdancona,
OK THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR INPUT IN THIS CONVERSATION. IM SORRY THAT YOU FEEL THAT WAY ABOUT WHAT I AM TRYING TO SAY.. I DONT BLAME YOU FOR THINKING THE WAY YOU DO ABOUT WHAT I AM SAYING. UNLESS I WAS SHOWN PROOF, I WOULD THINK THAT ALL THE STATEMENTS THAT I HAVE MADE THUS FAR ARE INFACT FANTASTICAL AND RIDICULOUS TOO.
HOWEVER, LIKE I SAID, I KNOW WHAT I KNOW.

AGAIN, THANK YOU SOO MUCH FOR YOUR INPUT, I WILL CREDIT YOU WITH THE ANSWER OF IT BEING A P QUESTION.

HOWEVER YOU STILL HAVENT ADDRESSED MY RESPONSES TO YOUR PREVIOUS STATEMENTS.

WOULD THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PROBLEM I POSED PUT IT INTO THE NP CLASSIFICATION?

THAT IS WHAT IS IMPORTANT HERE, NOT WHAT I THINK IS A POSSIBLITY, OR WHAT I THINK IS MATHMATECALLY CORRECT OR MATHEMATICALLY VALID...

IF YOU COULD JUST DIFINITIVELY ANSWER THAT QUESTION BASED ON THE PARAMETERS I OUTLAYED IN MY PREVIOUS POST BUT ONE IT WOULD MAKE THINGS CLEARER IN MY OWN HEAD ABOUT WHAT NP EXACTLY MEANS, AND WHETHER IT HAS ANY RELATION TO THE PROBLEM I HAVE OUTLAID..


glitterbag
 
  2  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 12:59 pm
@maxdancona,
maxdancona wrote:



You shouldn't buy very many of them since 1 ticket doesn't bring any more enjoyment than 10.



Once or twice a year, who cares. And looking at twenty possibilities ramps it up for me. I've won small pots from time to time. But the likelihood of winning big is slim, so it's fun when you are checking the numbers, and you don't throw yourself in front of a bus if you lose.
0 Replies
 
Numberman1
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 01:01 pm
@Romeo Fabulini,
because as i said, nobody believes that it is possible for such a formula to exist. Einstein himself even said it was impossible to consistantly win and that no formula or algorith could do so.
so either, nobody knows the formula or it is known by a small amount of people and not made public given the ramifications of what doing so would mean.
You said it yourself, such a formula would bankrupt casinos...
Frank Apisa
 
  2  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 01:07 pm
@Numberman1,
Numberman1 wrote:

because as i said, nobody believes that it is possible for such a formula to exist. Einstein himself even said it was impossible to consistantly win and that no formula or algorith could do so.
so either, nobody knows the formula or it is known by a small amount of people and not made public given the ramifications of what doing so would mean.
You said it yourself, such a formula would bankrupt casinos...


Right!

You've figured out what Einstein could not...and what (you allege) Einstein considered "impossible."

And you are here in an Internet forum devoted to telling teenagers if "he/she likes me"...discussing this.

Obviously you cannot share the secret with us...but you chose us to tell that you know it and cannot share it with us...because you had to find out if the secret is NP complete.

That you cannot figure out. And you have to come to a place like this for help with that, but the problem of how to get to a consistent profit spot at roulette...you could handle.

C'mon!
Romeo Fabulini
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 01:09 pm
Incidentally I've been a figures/boards/computer wargamer for about 40 years (under my fighting name 'PoorOldSpike') and done quite well at weighing up odds, picking up the odd trophy along the way like the one below.
The "trick" is to try to see a "pattern" in the way numbers keep coming up, and make your plays accordingly..

http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g64/PoorOldSpike/sub4/rd-cup.gif

PS- I've dabbled in computer roulette too (for fun, not money) and like to think my win rate is slightly above average but nothing to write home about.
My favourite method is to bet on 3 blocks of 4 numbers (different blocks each spin).
Oh, and a "trick" with roulette is to quit while you're ahead, that's the smartest play of them all..Wink
0 Replies
 
Numberman1
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 01:11 pm
@Frank Apisa,
why would i need your $10,000 in a nigerian bank account.
im claiming to be able to do what the world claims is impossible. What has not been done in the whole 300 years the game has existed. your money is meaningless in comparison to the achievement. If and when i decide to publish my findings i wont have to request your money, you'll be fighting to get it into my hands!!! Ridicule me all you like. IN TIME YOU WILL SEE.
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 01:27 pm
@Numberman1,
Numberman1 wrote:

why would i need your $10,000 in a nigerian bank account.
im claiming to be able to do what the world claims is impossible. What has not been done in the whole 300 years the game has existed. your money is meaningless in comparison to the achievement. If and when i decide to publish my findings i wont have to request your money, you'll be fighting to get it into my hands!!! Ridicule me all you like. IN TIME YOU WILL SEE.


Okay. We'll see.

Why aren't you playing roulette right now?
Numberman1
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 01:33 pm
@Frank Apisa,
Frank Please read the following, it is an excerpt from this page:
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/09/09/einstein-roulette/

Dear Quote Investigator: According to a legend in the gambling world Albert Einstein once visited a Las Vegas casino and after observing the action around the roulette wheel he said:

You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it.

Any truth to this story?

Quote Investigator: QI believes this quotation can be traced back to an article and a book by a controversial reporter named Ted Thackrey, Jr. In 1968 the Toledo Blade newspaper of Ohio published a series of articles by Thackrey under the title “Secrets of a Master Gambler”. The fourth article discussed a colorful gambler named Nick the Greek who died in 1966 and whose full name was Nicholas Andrea Dandolos. A version of the saying attributed to Einstein was included [AETT]:

Indeed, Albert Einstein once made the flat statement no one could possibly win at roulette “unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.”

But during the little mathematician’s visit to Las Vegas the Greek stopped off briefly at a roulette table, bought a handful of chips, plunked them down on red — won — and let them ride for two more spins, on which red also appeared.

Then he cashed in, pocketed his winning and grinned at the scientist.

Secondly, i had no idea what this forum was about, i just chose the first one that came up in google.. Ooopsie.. Silly me for thinking that i would be able to have an objective discussion...

Thirdly, im new to the whole P/NP thing and actually came across it by accident whilst researching. ive only been learning about P, NP and complexity thoery for 2 days and wondered how you would classify the problem of constantly being profitabile at roulette.
my reasoning is this, if the problem is NP and you can show a way to verify the solution at the same time as working out the solution and that this solution would be universally applicable to all problems then it would show that P=NP? Right?

All i wanted was a simple answer to this question. Maybe i came to the wrong place to ask. Ridicule and scoff at me as much as you like, you are just merely showing to yourself how closed minded you are. i couldnt give a bent banana what you think. I KNOW WHAT I KNOW!! :p
Numberman1
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 01:39 pm
@Frank Apisa,
i actually am..
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 02:46 pm
@Numberman1,
Numberman1 wrote:

Frank Please read the following, it is an excerpt from this page:
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/09/09/einstein-roulette/

Dear Quote Investigator: According to a legend in the gambling world Albert Einstein once visited a Las Vegas casino and after observing the action around the roulette wheel he said:

You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it.

Any truth to this story?

Quote Investigator: QI believes this quotation can be traced back to an article and a book by a controversial reporter named Ted Thackrey, Jr. In 1968 the Toledo Blade newspaper of Ohio published a series of articles by Thackrey under the title “Secrets of a Master Gambler”. The fourth article discussed a colorful gambler named Nick the Greek who died in 1966 and whose full name was Nicholas Andrea Dandolos. A version of the saying attributed to Einstein was included [AETT]:

Indeed, Albert Einstein once made the flat statement no one could possibly win at roulette “unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.”

But during the little mathematician’s visit to Las Vegas the Greek stopped off briefly at a roulette table, bought a handful of chips, plunked them down on red — won — and let them ride for two more spins, on which red also appeared.

Then he cashed in, pocketed his winning and grinned at the scientist.

Secondly, i had no idea what this forum was about, i just chose the first one that came up in google.. Ooopsie.. Silly me for thinking that i would be able to have an objective discussion...

Thirdly, im new to the whole P/NP thing and actually came across it by accident whilst researching. ive only been learning about P, NP and complexity thoery for 2 days and wondered how you would classify the problem of constantly being profitabile at roulette.
my reasoning is this, if the problem is NP and you can show a way to verify the solution at the same time as working out the solution and that this solution would be universally applicable to all problems then it would show that P=NP? Right?

All i wanted was a simple answer to this question. Maybe i came to the wrong place to ask. Ridicule and scoff at me as much as you like, you are just merely showing to yourself how closed minded you are. i couldnt give a bent banana what you think. I KNOW WHAT I KNOW!! :p


Here is a picture of me with Al...and I was asking him about that quote.

He said it was a bunch of hogwash.

So what could I tell ya?


http://i276.photobucket.com/albums/kk17/frankapisa/Einstein.jpg
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Thu 19 Jun, 2014 02:48 pm
@Numberman1,
Numberman1 wrote:

i actually am..


Right.

And you have discovered the secret of how consistently to profit at roulette.

Both true statements, correct!
 

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