North Korean Rail Disaster

Timber,

I've done a little reading of late on the DPRK. This administration seems to have largely disengaged from this conflict. This, of course, calls for a delicate balance and those nations in this sphere of influence should be deeply involved. However, I have a sinking feeling this is a nightmare upon the horizon. I am concerned as to our military strength not being able to serve as a large valid bargaining chip if/when we must "reason" with Kim in the future. Given the present situation in Iraq the perception is our military might be stretched too thin. Add to the mix that there is damn good intelligence (Pakistan's Dr Khan) the N. Koreans possess viable nuclear weapons and that the Hermit King is at least unpredictable it becomes a scary situation.

What do you feel is the significance of this "train explosion"? An assassination attempt? Faulty procedures followed during a transportation effort of a WMD?

JM

The speculation phase is well along; conjecture this might have been an atempt on Kim's life is rampant already. I suspect Kim's grasp on the populous may be rather more tenuous than generally is supposed, and frankly, I see little strategic threat posed by Kim's large, but poorly led, indiferently trained, poorly motivated, and badly equipped military ... apart from the fact China will show little tolerance for DPRK-fostered unrest within the Asian econonosphere. This actual trainwreck is going to be big news for a while, I'm sure, even if the news, as typical of news emanating from the figurative trainwreck of the DPRK regime, is devoid of actual fact. Actually, given what I know of DPRK's physical infrastructure and general managerial incompetence, I tend to think, at least at present, this was nothing more nor less than a blunder of calamitous proportion, with neither insurgent nor WMD component. We may expect many different versions to be floated over the next few hours, even days. We may never really know.

Supposedly it was a rail car full of flammable gas that collided with a rail car full of oil? I keep trying to figure out how the explosion from that could have killed 3000 people. It doesn't seem possible, unless the explosion came from some source other than two railroad tank cars.

If I were in that area I would want to have a radiation detector. Just to check.

That thought crossed my mind too, Tarantulas. I heard a report that people had been killed who were 20 - 50 Kilometers away.
The explosion was at or near the train station, so perhaps there was a huge crowd there.

We'll know it tomorrow, or at least next week I guess. I do not think guessing what caused the explosion and what's going on is usefull at the moment.

Dunno 'bout 20-50 kilometers away ... sounds a little like "And somebody who knows something told somebody I know" hysteria to me. Could be though ... I wasn't there, and I don't think I know anybody who was there or who would know "somebody who knows". However, I've seen an LPG trailer explode, and that was impressive as hell ... damned near levelled a couple-square-city-blocks-sized area of mostly pre-fab steel industrial buildings, knocked flat, and flash-burned, folks a couple hundred yards from the blast, broke windows and damaged shingles and building siding for a mile or so around, and scared, rattled, shook, and deafened helloutta me, huddled behind a husky firetruck almost a quarter mile away. I can just imagine the effect of a railcar full of the stuff detonating ... then add in a railcar or two full of just about any other sort of petroleum ... well, I'll guarantee there'd be a big, big, VERY Big flash-bang-and-fire ... likely one visible from satellite even in daylight. Glad I was nowhere near there.

Wow! If that happened in the middle of a densly populated area with buildings that are easily burned or of shoddy construction you can see how it could kill 3,000 people.

Shoddy, flamable construction wouldn't matter much. Heck, if it happened in downtown Manhattan, it would kill thousands ... come to think of it, remember those two big buildings that used to be there?

Right... (shoddy construction would just make things worse, maybe-- spread the fire.) Yikes. Enough of this subject!

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. has positioned one of the Keyhole Sats just to check up on this.

This got me to thinking, what are the chances of certain members of this regime with access to weapons (Military) trying to eliminate an unpredictable fearless leader so as to lessen the chance of a conflict with a Bush led "negotiation team"? Oh, the supposition has indeed begun! Oh, for the days of the real CIA!

JM

Oh you betchya ...


US Satellite photo of NK rail disaster.


... there ya go.

Sigh - just what those poor people need.

Last Update: Friday, April 23, 2004. 12:34pm (AEST)

Explosion: Up to 3,000 people are believed to have been killed or injured. (Reuters)

N Korea silent as disaster relief offered
South Korea has offered humanitarian aid to North Korea after 3,000 people were reportedly killed or injured in a massive train crash near the Chinese border.

Some reports say the North has asked China for help in rescue operations, after two fuel-laden trains collided and exploded near the border.

"They have already asked for help, but we can't give more details. We must report it to the provincial government," an official with the Dandong city government said.

However, North Korea is yet to make any official statement on the disaster.

Goh Kun, South Korea's acting president, has expressed deep condolences to the North Korean people at a meeting of senior Government officials.

"If the reports are true, it would be a very unfortunate accident," Mr Goh said.

"Related government agencies first need to check the exact situation in North Korea and if necessary should prepare humanitarian aid as soon as possible."

The United States also says it is prepared to offer emergency assistance to the Stalinist regime.

"We have always been willing to help the people of North Korea with humanitarian needs, (but) we don't know enough about the situation yet to know whether there is any assistance that might be necessary," spokesman Richard Boucher said.

Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexander Downer, says Australia would offer assistance to North Korea if it asked for it.

"The problem there is getting information out of North Korea," he said.

"We've so far got no official information from the North Koreans themselves and no request for assistance.

"We'd be prepared to provide appropriate assistance within the confines of our ability to help them."

Yonhap news agency quotes Government officials as confirming that around 3,000 people have been killed or injured following a train collision just south of the border with China.

Two trains carrying oil and liquefied petroleum gas collided and exploded in Ryongchon.

Yonhap reports North Korea declared a state of emergency in the area of the blast, which resembles a war zone.

The explosion occurred just hours after leader Kim Jong-Il passed through the area on his return from China.

South Korea's Unification Ministry, which handles relations with North Korea, says that it and other South Korean agencies have confirmed that an accident has taken place.

However, the toll of dead and injured has not been ascertained.

"There are no official figures at this point," said spokeswoman Yang Jeong-Hwa.

Hospital denials

Meanwhile, officials at the North Korean border and hospitals in the Chinese border city of Dandong are denying dealing with casualties from the train crash.

"No, we have seen nothing. Our border post was kept closed all night," an official at the border post near Dandong, said.

Workers at both the Dandong No 1 and No 2 hospitals deny they are treating casualties.

"No, absolutely not. We don't have in our hospital any foreign patients," said a woman doctor surnamed Xiao.

Their denials are echoed by the local government.

"I have never heard of this," said a government official surnamed Li.

Seoul officials told Yonhap news agency early today they have confirmed up to 3,000 casualties are being taken to hospitals in Dandong just over the border and other areas.

-- AFP

All right Timber! as a wannabe Techie I love this stuff!

Thanks,

JM

The good news is that since the DPRK is proported to be a socialistic society, all survivors and those of the dead will be well taken care of by "the state".

JM

Sure, JamesMorrison. Just like the North Koreans had been so well taken care of before this accident.

Well, cynism seems to be one idea to react when (perhaps) 3,000 people just died in a terrible accident.

I could imagine an explosion that big after a gas tank has been exposed to fire. I've seen the safety films on BLEVE's (boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion), but immediately as a result of a collision just doesn't sound right.

But now having done a bit of a search on it maybe it's not so far fetched.



Transportation accidents involving hazardous substances may pose significant threats from explosions as well as contamination. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosions (BLEVE), such as the one pictured here, are common to trains and other transporters of hazardous substances that incur a sudden impact or damage.


Photos-BLEVE, Emergency Response Program, US EPA