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# What are the odds?

Kolyo

1
Sat 27 Feb, 2016 01:36 pm
@puzzledperson,
You're talking to someone who scored 29/30 on Exam P in well under 2 of the allotted 3 hours. You have all the self-awareness of a cat, with none of the cuteness.
maxdancona

1
Sat 27 Feb, 2016 03:50 pm
@Kolyo,
Puzzled person.

When I flip a coin, there is 1/2 chance that it will come up heads.

What are the odds that if I flip the coin twice... it will come up heads both times?
0 Replies

ekename

1
Sat 27 Feb, 2016 09:30 pm
@puzzledperson,
Quote:
I don't remember you offering a refutation of my argument. Merely asserting that I'm wrong does not constitute a refutation.

Which parts of the two methods of solving this question don't you comprehend?

Quote:
P(X≥1)=1−P(X=0) where

P(X = 0) = C(100, 0)C(900,10)/C(1000,10) = 0.3469

or

(900/1000)x(899/999)x(898/998)x ...(891/991) = 0.3469

"Therefore the odds that at least one of the ten is in the honors program are C(1000,10)-C(900,10) to C(900,10)."

1.88:1 becomes 1/(1+1.88) or 0.3469 after adjusting for rounding error.
0 Replies

ekename

1
Sat 27 Feb, 2016 09:42 pm
@Kolyo,
I was probably saddened to hear of your loss, what a SOA b.

Any chance of sharing the question?
ekename

1
Sat 27 Feb, 2016 09:53 pm
@maxdancona,
Quote:
Yes, you are right. I made a mistake. You already fixed it for me. Thanks.

My pleasure.
Kolyo

1
Sat 27 Feb, 2016 09:57 pm
@ekename,
Oh, well 29/30 was more of a guess. I will never know my raw score.

All I know for sure is:
1) I passed.
2) I left slightly more confident than usual that I got everything right.
3) On the practice exams, I usually felt I'd got them all right and then found I'd missed one or two. So ... 29/30 was a typical score on a good practice day.

It has been awhile, and a job opened up in a completely different field. So I never got around to taking any more exams.
ekename

1
Sun 28 Feb, 2016 11:00 pm
@Kolyo,
You should post some questions and make puzzledperson's day.

0 Replies

puzzledperson

0
Tue 1 Mar, 2016 09:58 pm
@Kolyo,
Kolyo wrote: "You have all the self-awareness of a cat, with none of the cuteness."

That's a silly and illogical remark. Nothing in this thread has any bearing on my SELF-awareness. You sound like a defective and as-if insecure pseudo-sentient, foolishly abusing language in an attempt to taunt a sentient being with criticism which has previously (and accurately) been leveled against you (or against another of your silly pseudo-personalities).

I think it's quite revealing that none of the participants in this thread was able to offer a simple refutation of my original answer, based on first principles, without technical jargon and in language that anyone can understand.

Here's the refutation:

The total number of possible results, minus the number of results that fail to satisfy the requirements, gives the number of results that satisfy the requirements; and the number of results satisfying the requirements, divided by the total number of possible results, gives the percentage of possible results which satisfy the requirements.

(A) Total number of possible results = 1000 x 999 x 998 x 997 x 996 x 995 x 994 x 993 x 992 x 991

(B) Number of results that fail to satisfy the requirements = 900 x 899 x 898 x 897 x 896 x 895 x 894 x 893 x 892 x 891

[(A) - (B)] / (A) = 0.3469 = 34.69% (rounded to the nearest hundredth of a percentage point)

0 Replies

puzzledperson

-1
Tue 1 Mar, 2016 10:07 pm
@ekename,
It's interesting and (again) quite revealing how the various pseudo-sentients posting to this thread attempt to outdo one another with expressions of humility, gratitude, and apology for error to one another, while being irrationally hostile, rude, abusive, and obstreperously refusing to admit error to the one actual sentient being here. That too is indicative of defective pseudo-sentients.
0 Replies

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