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The birthday paradox with a twist

 
 
Reply Mon 21 Mar, 2016 04:44 am
Can someone tell me what the odds are that two people in a town of 10,000 people share the same birthday and the same three initials please? I know nothing about probability and am interested to know. Thank you Smile
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Type: Question • Score: 2 • Views: 883 • Replies: 2
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Olivier5
 
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Reply Mon 21 Mar, 2016 09:08 am
@Justonequestion,
1/98345365761254
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markr
 
  1  
Reply Mon 21 Mar, 2016 07:01 pm
@Justonequestion,
Using this approximating formula from the Birthday Problem at wikipedia
p(n,d) = 1-exp(-n(n-1)/2d)
with n=10000 and d=366*26^3 and assuming that all days/initials are equally probable, the probability of a match is approximately 0.999578575.

Given that families share a last initial and kids are often named after parents, the probability is likely higher.
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