Tony Blair's U-Turn

Blair to make EU poll statement
Prime Minister Tony Blair will make a statement to MPs on Tuesday about a possible referendum on the planned EU constitution, Number 10 has said. British voters look set to get a vote on the issue in what is being seen as a major U-turn by Tony Blair.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have welcomed the government's apparent change of heart.

Tory leader Michael Howard said there was "no reason at all" why a vote should not take place this autumn.

Judge for themselves?

Mr Howard has already criticised suggestions the government will wait until after the next general election before holding a vote.

He said there was "no justification" for Parliament to spend months discussing the issue when people might just then reject the proposal.

"I think it should be held as soon as possible," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

The constitution is expected to be agreed by EU leaders by the end of June.
It will replace earlier European Union treaties and is designed to streamline decision making, when the EU enlarges from 15 to 25 members in May.

Bob Worcester, founder of the polling company Mori, said he thought the result of a referendum was likely to be "extremely close".

The prime minister has previously said the vote was unnecessary because the treaty would not fundamentally alter Britain's relationship with the EU.

But on Saturday he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme Conservative threats to renegotiate the treaty, if they were successful in the European elections, could make a poll necessary.

"The thing that has changed recently is a radical change in the Conservative position, which is no longer to say they don't support this constitutional treaty, but they would renegotiate it if it was passed," he said.
Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott told BBC Radio 4's The World This Weekend Mr Blair was simply "listening to the argument" over an EU poll.

The new constitution must be approved by parliament within two years.
The Conservatives planned to make the referendum a central issue of their campaign for the European elections on 10 June.

But Mr Howard told Today there were "many other issues" at stake in that election.

The Liberal Democrats, who support the constitution, have also called for a referendum on the issue.

Sir Menzies Campbell, Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman, said: "If these reports are true they will represent an enormous volte-face on the part of the government."

A spokesman for the UK Independence Party - which campaigns for withdrawal from the EU - said: "Whatever the government says this is a referendum about being in or out of the European Union."

The constitution has been drafted by the European Convention but member states have not been able to decide on a final agreement.


For the constitution
Prime Minister Tony Blair
Most Labour MPs
Liberal Democrats
Most trade unions
A handful of Tory MPs

Against the constitution
Tory leader Michael Howard
Most Tory MPs
About 60 Labour MPs
UK Independence Party
Business for Sterling group

Anatomy of a U-turn

Monday April 19, 2004
The Guardian

May 18 2003
Peter Hain, the leader of the house, said: "Those starting a campaign for a referendum might as well put away their placards ... we are not going to do it."

May 27 2003
Denmark's prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, confirms that his country will hold a referendum on the new EU treaty. He said: "What is at stake is so big it is right to hold a referendum."

May 28 2003
Tony Blair rejects calls for a public vote: "We don't govern in this country by referendum..."

June 17 2003
Foreign secretary, Jack Straw, echoes the prime minister's comments: "We have had a referendum for the UK as a whole only on one occasion in the past. That was on the open and shut issue of whether we stayed in the then common market ... in 1975."

September 9 2003
The prime minister again insists that a referendum is not needed because the treaty would not create a "federal superstate", adding it would be "good for Britain and good for Europe".

October 18 2003
Reiterating his firm stance, Mr Blair said: "There will not be a referendum. The reason is that the constitution does not fundamentally change the relationship between the UK and the EU."

April 16 2004
Conservative leader, Michael Howard, following reports of a possible u-turn on the referendum, said: "It is a very simple matter. We can have a very simple decision and we ought to be told what the government's intentions are."

April 17 2004
Mr Blair says on the Today programme. "Our policy has not changed and if there is any question of it changing, we will tell you."

April18 2004
John Prescott confirms the PM is "listening to the argument" for a referendum, indicating the change in direction. "We do consult the people where we think it is justified and necessary," he said.