Survey finds hope in occupied Iraq

Iraqi oilmen and United States occupation officials peg Iraqi oil production in recent days at 2.5 million to 2.7 million barrels a day, roughly the same amount Iraq was capable of pumping before the US-led invasion in March 2003.

According to the poll, 48 percent of Iraqis think the war was justified; 39 percent think it was wrong. Fifty-one percent oppose the presence of coalition forces; 39 percent support it. That about corresponds with the ambivalence that John Zogby found last August. Except that that's not the whole story.

The only reason those anemic pro-U.S. numbers are as high as they are is because they incorporate the massively pro-war, pro-U.S. feelings of Iraqi Kurds. When the poll disaggregates how Iraqi Arabs feel, the numbers shift substantially against the U.S., something that "World News Tonight" didn't mention in its coverage of the poll. That's not so surprising in itself, since Sunni and Shia Arabs in Iraq have spent the past year feeling a combination of awe, frustration, and humiliation toward their occupiers. But the depth of the split is breathtaking, and it carries two implications. First, with just over three months to go before the handover of power to an interim Iraqi government, it appears the United States has lost the battle for Iraqi hearts and minds. Second, the gulf between Iraqi Kurd opinion and Arab opinion presents a daunting challenge to creating a united country--particularly when the temporary constitution points the way toward balkanization.

For instance, look at the numbers on support for the invasion. Iraqis as a whole split in favor of it by 48 to 39 percent. But factor out the Kurds--87 percent of whom back it--and the picture gets more complex. Iraqi Arabs are somewhat against the war: 40 percent say it was right, while 46 percent say it was wrong. There's no religious breakdown, so we don't know how many of those respondents are Shia and how many are Sunni, which would be very helpful information. But as it is, consider that in total, 42 percent say that the invasion "liberated" Iraq, while 41 percent say it "humiliated" the country. The Kurds split on that question 82-11; for Arabs, 33 percent consider the war a liberation, while 48 consider it humiliating. That's on top of the fact that across all regions of the country, people report that their personal lives are better now than before the war, and they expect them to improve--which suggests that regardless of how they personally feel affected by the war, Iraqi Arabs believe it was unfortunate for the nation as a whole.

Security is overwhelmingly the highest priority among Iraqis. Sixty-four percent rank it as their top concern, with the next contender, holding elections, garnering 8 percent. Yet only 18 percent say coalition forces should remain "until security is restored." Thirty-six percent say they should only stay in Iraq "until an Iraqi gov't is in place"--and the poll is painfully unclear on whether that means the interim government scheduled to take over July 1 or a permanent, elected government next year. On the question of U.S. troops, the ethnic breakdown is significant as well. Kurds support the presence of coalition forces by a margin of 82 percent to 12 percent. Only 30 percent of Arabs feel the same way--and 60 percent oppose the U.S. troop presence. No statistic here bodes particularly well for U.S. plans to negotiate an open-ended basing arrangement with a sovereign Iraqi government.

Nowhere is the Arab-Kurdish split starker than on the question of Iraq's future political structure. The questions were not very nuanced: Respondents were offered the option of "unified country, central government in Baghdad," "regional states with a federal government," and "divided into separate independent states." That doesn't allow for evaluating the varieties of federalism available. But an overwhelming 90 percent of Arabs prefer a centralized model, with only 5 percent favoring a federal Iraq, which helps account for the anti-federalist protests among Iraqi Arabs this weekend. Among the Kurds, 26 percent want centralism. While that's certainly a vastly higher figure than I imagined--and only 12 percent opt for independence--Iraq's Kurds back the federal model by 58 percent.

As for the kind of government Iraqis want: 48 percent desire democracy; 28 percent a strong leader "for life"; and 21 percent an Islamic state. Broken down between one year and five years, the top preference--a massive 47 percent--is for a strong leader over the next year; this number drops to 35 percent after five years. Conversely, 28 percent want democracy in a year, but 42 percent want it in five. Not surprisingly, those who want an Islamic state, 10 percent, want it as strongly in one year as in five. No ethnic breakdown on these questions is available.

There's a lot more in this poll than what's listed above. One surprising result: While only 2 percent want to see the Governing Council in place in a year's time, 39 percent express confidence in it. (By contrast, "religious leaders" are trusted by 70 percent of Iraqis, and the CPA by 28 percent.) Yet the most important thing the poll tells us is that in our first year of control, we have resoundingly failed to live up to the expectations of the Iraqis. That's not to say we haven't helped, as the figures about Iraqis considering themselves better off than before the war demonstrate. But their sense of personal advancement has not translated into significant feelings of good will for the U.S., at least among Iraqi Arabs. And with only a few months before the transfer of power, there doesn't seem to be much we can do to turn that figure around.

More ominous is the massive discrepancy between how Arabs and Kurds view their present political situation and their visions for the future. As I've written for the past week, the TAL sets the country on precisely the wrong course--heightening ethnic divisions rather than diminishing them. But even if the TAL opted for an administrative federalism, the psychic divide would still be present--and it would still be formidable. Overcoming this divide is the central question facing Iraqi politics.

Okay, Scrat. Explanation.

Many folks think the Iraq War is all about oil, right?

Sooooooo, if the people are hopeful, then that means things are going right, and Bush can have his oil without a fight, hence the prices will come down on gasoline, all will be well, and the boys can come on home.

If that explanation seems a little disjointed, it's because I'm trying to download some music by a newbie on A2K, and it's taking forever. I gotta one track mind and a dial up modem.

Survey finds hope in occupied Iraq
An opinion poll suggests most Iraqis feel their lives have improved since the war in Iraq began about a year ago.

It's a shame that thousands upon thousands of Iraqi's weren't able to participate in the survey because they are dead or severely wounded.

I bet the Iraqi orphans and widows don't feel their lives have been 'improved' either.

Nah, I don't put much stock in that poll. I think, if anything, it's terribly inaccurate.

Nah, I don't put much stock in that poll. I think, if anything, it's terribly inaccurate.

Regardless of how you view the numbers; I believe the majority of Iraqi's are glad we showed up.

divorcing our 'presence' from the liberating action itself, while interesting for a poll, is absurd in reality."

Q11 - Which countries/organisations should play a role in the rebuilding of Iraq? You may mention up to three countries/organisations in order of importance.

[Top ranking countries by total of first-third choice:]

Japan 35,9%
United States 35,7%
France 21,6%
United Kingdom 21,5%
Germany 16,7%
United Arab Emirates 8,6%
Saudi Arabia 7.6%
Kuwait 6,7%
Russia 6,1%

[Note that the countries of "the West" (or North, in any case) do a lot better than fellow Arab countries ... and that, on the other hand, America's nemesis, France, does better than America's most loyal ally, the UK, while America itself is outdone by the more "neutral" Japan ... nimh]

Q12 - Which countries/organisations should not play a role in the rebuilding of Iraq? You may mention up to three countries/organisations in order of importance.

[Top ranking countries by total of first-third choice:]

Israel 36,8%
Iran 19,5%
Kuwait 16,9%
United States 14,1%
Turkey 13,4%
Syria 12,6%
United Kingdom 11,9%
Jordan 10,8%
Egypt 9,0%

[Note that all of Iraq's neighbours are included in this list ... :wink: nimh ]