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CNN poll of battle-ground states: 51/43 Romney

 
 
Reply Wed 4 Jul, 2012 10:23 am
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/07/02/cnn-poll-of-battleground-states-romney-51-obama-43/

Quote:

A rare case in which a news outlet actually tries to undermine its own poll by pointing out problems in its methodology. Is that because it’s terrible for the Unicorn Prince or because, to be fair, it’s hard to draw any conclusions from numbers these vague?...
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Type: Discussion • Score: 1 • Views: 1,363 • Replies: 13
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jul, 2012 10:39 am
@gungasnake,
The article mentions 15 "battleground" states without listing them. What are they? Thank you.
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jul, 2012 12:35 pm
General election Obama 47/Romney 44
RCP
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jul, 2012 02:05 pm
Hotair is a conservative blog-rag. You don't expect either accuracy or intelligence from a source like that. This is typical of Gunga Dim's favorite sources.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jul, 2012 02:13 pm
@Setanta,
In order for Romney to have such a big lead in 15 battleground states, Texas, Georgia and Mississippi would have to be in play. Gunga will fill us in, I'm sure, on the list of 15.
RABEL222
 
  0  
Reply Wed 4 Jul, 2012 03:18 pm
@realjohnboy,
Hope springs eternal!
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jul, 2012 03:45 pm
@realjohnboy,
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/02/cnn-poll-health-care-ruling-has-not-impacted-race-for-white-house-so-far/

Original article. It looks like they are referring to the 15 states that CNN lists as toss up or leaning. 8 toss up, 4 GOP leaning, 4 Dem leaning.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

The problem is Obama can win the election by winning as few as 5 of those 15 states.
realjohnboy
 
  0  
Reply Wed 4 Jul, 2012 04:55 pm
@parados,
Thank you for figuring out what CNN's "15 battleground states" are. I must admit I don't follow CNN.
I suspect that Gunga has moved on to other topics, so we might want to move the discussion to the broader thread: "The U.S. Elections For President, The Senate...."
0 Replies
 
thack45
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jul, 2012 05:04 pm
thack45 poll of relevance of polls: 100/0 not relevant.
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gungasnake
 
  1  
Reply Thu 5 Jul, 2012 02:33 am
Rasmussen's reading of Obunga's "dead-cat" bounce over obungacare:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/romney_vs_obama/july_2012/romney_vs_obama_july_3_2012/721181-1-eng-US/romney_vs_obama_july_3_2012.jpg

Rasmussen is the most accurate poll and is a poll of likely voters. My own take is that Obunga would have to be at 52% right now to have any sort of a shot at the thing given the forces lining up against him.

I see it as slightly better than an even shot that the dems throw Bork under the bus and run Stenny Hoyer for president in November.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 5 Jul, 2012 03:18 am
@gungasnake,
Rasmussen is a conservative shill poll. You may fool your tea bagger buddies, but you're not fooling anyone here. This isn't reliable informaton, this is wishful thinking.

Quote:
In 2010, Nate Silver of the New York Times blog FiveThirtyEight wrote the article “Is Rasmussen Reports biased?”, in which he mostly defended Rasmussen from allegations of bias. However, by later in the year, Rasmussen's polling results diverged notably from other mainstream pollsters, which Silver labeled a "house effect". He went on to explore other factors which may have explained the effect such as the use of a likely voter model, and claimed that Rasmussen conducted its polls in a way that excluded the majority of the population from answering. Silver also criticized Rasmussen for often only polling races months before the election, which prevented them from having polls just before the election that could be assessed for accuracy. He wrote that he was “looking at appropriate ways to punish pollsters” like Rasmussen in his pollster rating models who don’t poll in the final days before an election.

After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate race, in which Rasmussen, in a poll completed three weeks before the election, showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin – a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen's poll, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998". Silver named Quinnipiac University Poll as the most accurate poll of the election cycle. However, according to RealClearPolitics, in toss-up races where both Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac polled, the Rasmussen Reports final poll was closer to the mark in every race. The two firms projected the same candidate to win every race but the Florida gubernatorial race, where Rasmussen correctly projected Rick Scott's victory, while Quinnipiac showed Alex Sink with the lead.

Other

TIME has described Rasmussen Reports as a "conservative-leaning polling group". According to Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political scientist who co-developed Pollster.com, “He [Rasmussen] polls less favorably for Democrats, and that’s why he’s become a lightning rod." Franklin also said: "It’s clear that his results are typically more Republican than the other person’s results.”

The Center For Public Integrity listed "Scott Rasmussen Inc" as a paid consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign] The Washington Post reported that the 2004 Bush reelection campaign had used a feature on the Rasmussen Reports website that allowed customers to program their own polls, and that Rasmussen asserted that he had not written any of the questions or assisted Republicans.

Rasmussen has received criticism over the wording in its polls. Asking a polling question with different wording can affect the results of the poll; the commentators in question allege that the questions Rasmussen ask in polls are skewed in order to favor a specific response. For instance, when Rasmussen polled whether Republican voters thought Rush Limbaugh was the leader of their party, the specific question they asked was: "Agree or Disagree: 'Rush Limbaugh is the leader of the Republican Party -- he says jump and they say how high"


Source at Wikipedia
gungasnake
 
  1  
Reply Thu 5 Jul, 2012 06:44 am
@Setanta,
Quote:
Source at Wikipedia


That's all most people need to know about your **** article.

Again for the uninformed, Wikipedia is a hugely valuable resource for any topic for which no controversy could plausibly exist; for anything else, it's worthless.
Setanta
 
  0  
Reply Thu 5 Jul, 2012 07:49 am
@gungasnake,
Which is not at all the same as demonstrating that Rasmussen Reports is even a reliable polling organization, never mind the most accurate as you claimed.
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  0  
Reply Thu 5 Jul, 2012 10:01 am
@Setanta,
Which is why (said before) that I like real clear politics which takes all the leading pollsters and averages them out. If you look at the averages all the others. Rasmussen always leans more favorable conservative more than the others.
0 Replies
 
 

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