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How much is Facebook Worth to Own?

 
 
Reply Tue 31 Jan, 2012 11:16 pm
They will make $2 billion this year, and the IPO is hoped to value the company at $100 billion....50 times earnings. Does this make any sense to anyone? This is FACEBOOK, they have few employees, no warehouses or sales force with people actually moving product like say Amazon, and they can be replaced PDQ by someone else who comes along with a great idea and rental servers.....WTF are investors buying with their money?

I am thinking that given the history of these kinds of companies being flash in the pan that Facebook is worth AT THE VERY MOST 10 times earnings or $20 billion.

Shall we talk about MYSPACE?


What say you?
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Type: Discussion • Score: 4 • Views: 3,775 • Replies: 13
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Butrflynet
 
  2  
Reply Tue 31 Jan, 2012 11:49 pm
@hawkeye10,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Facebook

Quote:
...
As of January 2012, Facebook has more than 800 million active users.
...
Release of statistics by DoubleClick showed that Facebook reached one trillion pageviews in the month of June 2011, making it the most visited Web site in the world.[57] It should however be noted that Google and some of its selected Web sites are not counted in the DoubleClick rankings. According to the Nielsen Media Research study, released in December 2011, Facebook is the second most accessed website in the US.
...

Key management personnel comprise Chris Cox (VP of Product), Sheryl Sandberg (COO), and Donald E. Graham (Chairman). As of April 2011, Facebook has over 2,000 employees, and offices in 15 countries.[62]
...
Most of Facebook's revenue comes from advertising.[63][64] Microsoft is Facebook's exclusive partner for serving banner advertising,[65] and therefore Facebook serves only advertisements that exist in Microsoft's advertisement inventory.
...
In early 2011, Facebook announced plans to move to its new headquarters, the former Sun Microsystems campus in Menlo Park, California.[55]
...
A custom-built data center with substantially reduced ("38% less") power consumption compared to existing Facebook data centers opened in April 2011 in Prineville, Oregon.[80]



https://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?factsheet

Headquartered in Palo Alto, Calif. U.S. offices: Atlanta; Birmingham, Michigan; Chicago; Dallas; Detroit; New York; Venice Beach, Calif.; Washington, DC; Austin; Seattle; International offices: Dublin; Hamburg; Hong Kong; Hyderabad; London; Madrid; Milan; Paris; Selangor; Singapore; Stockholm; Sydney; Tokyo; Toronto;
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 31 Jan, 2012 11:51 pm
http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-valuation-2012-1

Quote:
Think Facebook's $100 Billion Valuation Is Nuts? Read This

We're all awaiting with bated breath for the Facebook S-1 to drop this week. According to various leaks, Facebook's operating profit was around $1.5 billion in 2011 and its revenues were something like $4 billion. We'll know soon enough whether that's true, but if so, it makes Facebook's reported $85-100 billion valuation sound insane.

Is it?

Well, anyone can argue that it's high. But we don't think it's insane.

First of all, the value of an asset is the net present value of its future cashflows. This means that a company's value doesn't depend on how much revenue it generates today, but on the profits it's going to generate in the future. The value of the current financials is in helping someone figure out what are going to be the future financials. That's more of an art than a science, obviously. But we have to remember that assessing whether a valuation is insane is about assessing the future of an asset.

So, what's Facebook's future like? It's very bright.

The basic reasoning behind Facebook's valuation goes something like this: every new technology cycle is dominated by one company, and that company usually ends up being worth around $200 billion. Microsoft dominated the PC era, and Google dominated the search era. Facebook is going to dominate the social era, and therefore it's going to be worth $200 billion some day. Discount that to today and $100 billion looks like a steal.

But how likely is it? There's no question Facebook is a big business worth many billions of dollars, but can it be one of those epoch-defining companies a la Google and Microsoft? There's no way to know for sure, but here are some high-level reasons why it's not insane to think so:

Facebook is becoming one of the biggest sources and referrers of traffic on the internet—and on the internet traffic is money. The reason why Google became the most valuable and feared internet company was because most of the traffic on the internet came from Google. This is changing. An increasing amount of traffic—for some sites, most of their traffic—comes from Facebook. And on the internet, traffic is money, because it translates into (take your pick) advertising, commerce, transactions. If Facebook controls half of the traffic on the internet (as it does now to many sites), it can start selling that traffic very profitably. (This is also the real reason why Google is terrified of Facebook, even though they're not direct competitors.)
Facebook has oodles of data on you, including your identity. The web has been crying out for a personal identity system: a way to link transactions and traffic to a real-world identity. Facebook is the first site that has achieved the goal of getting us to identify using our real-world identities. The opportunities for targeting advertising are obvious, but they are much broader: By "owning" personal identity on the internet, Facebook has an immensely valuable asset.
Facebook is the biggest social platform. "Social" is a fad, some say. We disagree: What "social" means is that people decide what to consume and share among other people, which is the natural way to do things. "Social" is always going to be a part of consumer and even enterprise applications. And Facebook, intelligently, isn't content with being the biggest "social" destination site; it has turned itself into a platform, allowing others to either build applications on top of it, or use its tools to add its "social sauce" to its system. Just as Microsoft dominated the computing world by owning the biggest software platform—Windows—Facebook is turning itself into the dominant platform of a new internet era. (It might not end that way, but it's definitely not a silly case to make.)
Facebook is unstoppable because it has a network effect. We are mixed on this, as we have written many times that network effects are oversold. This is what we think about Facebook's network effect: It does ensure that the vast majority of people on the internet will be Facebook users, and that this in turn will make Facebook's platform very valuable. What it does not ensure is that Facebook will always remain relevant and might not be displaced by other platforms. But not everyone sees it that way.

So to sum up, Facebook is a company that controls, will control, or can plausibly be argued to be on the cusp of controlling: a) most of the traffic on the internet; b) most of our personal identity data; c) the emerging platform that will define the future of the internet.

To reiterate: we don't think Facebook is worth $100 billion. Or $80 billion. Or $120 billion. Or $1 billion. That's for other people to decide. But if someone screams at you that it's SO OBVIOUS that Facebook's valuation is NUTS, they're just not informed enough.


0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Feb, 2012 12:00 am
@Butrflynet,
Is Facebook likely to be earning me money ten years from now? Given how internet companies who dont have brick and mortar outlets have done since the beginning of the internet I would have to say "NO". Amazon might be an exception, but then Amazon has been outrageously expensive for a long time so owning it is not a sure fired great idea either.


There is no way in hell that I am paying 30-50 times earnings for a company that I have no faith will be still earning money ten years from now, and being likely to be a kick ass earner in 2015 does not change that.
Butrflynet
 
  2  
Reply Wed 1 Feb, 2012 01:08 am
@hawkeye10,
What I think is hilarious about the whole thing is the social networking concept has just gone full circle from the early days of AOL and now to Facebook. Facebook is mostly just a glorified AOL with user homepages.
0 Replies
 
PUNKEY
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Feb, 2012 07:44 am
Facebook will be "out" soon.

The kids are already changing to Twitter - for more privacy.
I just watch what my granddaughter (age 13) is doing.
parados
 
  2  
Reply Wed 1 Feb, 2012 07:58 am
@hawkeye10,
Google is earning money.
Yahoo is earning money.

AOL even announced a profit before the open of the market this morning.

So yes, internet companies with no brick and morter do earn money. Whether they are worth 100 billion is up to you hawk. I passed on the Google IPO at $100 a share. It's currently trading at $580. That's not a bad return for those that jumped on it less than 9 years ago.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  2  
Reply Wed 1 Feb, 2012 08:04 am
@PUNKEY,
Twitter isn't really a facebook alternative. It's another communication choice, like texts, phone calls, or mass emails.

Google is entering the social arena. How that will ultimately affect Facebook is yet to be seen.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Wed 1 Feb, 2012 09:07 am
@hawkeye10,
You're looking at having someone or a bank put money into a restaurant. Investing in FB is a similar high-risk venture. It'll either make good bucks or it'll flame out.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Jul, 2012 10:20 pm
Quote:
Facebook reported earnings Thursday that met expectations but failed to convince investors that the social network had found a business model that would make it an enduring powerhouse.

That sobering realization was reflected in a massive sell-off of the company’s stock. After its second-quarter performance was unveiled, shares plunged 11 percent, reaching their lowest since the company’s initial public offering in May. Other companies that rely on Facebook’s platform for sales also saw their stocks fall.
Even though Facebook’s revenue grew to $1.18 billion, slightly above expectations, investors were alarmed that the company spent more than three times what it had during the same period last year yet expanded its business at a slower pace

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/facebook-stock-plummets-after-earnings/2012/07/26/gJQA6UMSCX_story.html?hpid=z4

This reminds me of the old saying " there is a sucker born every minute". The experts were claiming that Facebook is worth $100 billion and yet they dont have a business plan which works to make money.

RIIIIGHT......
0 Replies
 
tsarstepan
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2013 01:37 pm
Quote:
Facebook has continued its massive run-up in its stock price today, this time blowing past $50 — which means it has more than doubled in the past three months.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mattlynley/good-news-for-twitter-facebook-just-crossed-50
I wonder if this stock news is a mere depiction of a bubble soon to pop or an actual market correction and more accurate definition of how much Facebook is worth?
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Sep, 2013 02:05 pm
@tsarstepan,
lack of good options of where to put money to grow it, Warren Buffet was just complaining about this the other day. Facebook at least is a cultural phenomenon that has a plan for how to make money, it might be the
next IBM/GM, so these guys are throwing in with Facebook and praying that it works out for them.
0 Replies
 
GailDickey
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 May, 2014 05:24 am
@hawkeye10,
For me in personal Facebook is a way to keep in touch with my family, friends, collegious. In professional it is the best way to increase my business site social popularity.
0 Replies
 
GailDickey
 
  1  
Reply Wed 4 Jun, 2014 01:35 am
I think Facebook is really worth to own because Facebook has over 500 million users today and around 250 million of them log in on a daily basis. This number is why the site provides businesses and organizations with the ideal, unmatched prospect to connect with more individuals than was ever possible before.
0 Replies
 
 

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