The United Kingdom's bye bye to Europe

Points for Departugal. 👌

I know what you mean. I enjoyed so much reading the banter between you guys. Titans with varying perspectives in a worthy, fun discussion. It's an example of the best of A2K - or any conversation. Wish it could be like this more often.

Had to call my daughter and tell her to chill about her stocks. It'll be okay. Huge historical day.

I looked at a map of the UK with color coded depictions of the voting results. It wasn't hard to find the Scottish border.

Very hard to tell what this means for the EU. In some respects events appear to be headed back towards the 19th century- East West andd North South divides. It appears that the unresolved soverignty issues and the attendant growth of a bureaucratic state which helped it evade the otherwise fractious issues that have so long plagued the continent have played a part. However that is just my favorite theory.

That's interesting Walter. I've read about the Italian surveys and some involving even the French as well, but I'm not convident of my ability to evaluate this stuff. Do you believe this issue somewhat duplicates the left right divide in the political spectrum in these and other EU countries?

Nigel Farage is the clear winner of the British referendum. The Brexit is the completion of his lifework.

I'm not sure about if it really is a duplication. (The Conservatives will get the same fate Labour got, when Labour opposed the EU-membership, but the Conservatives were pro.)
Most, if not all, European (new) right wing parties are just nationalist populists. And most (if not all) have no plans how to work.

It might be different in the UK - I do hope so.

But when you listen to Le Pen and Wilders ...

You know, George the real sad part is that the younger generation (up to 49 years of age) all voted to remain in the EU. It was the older generation that predominately voted for the Brexit. The old people dictated the future of the young ones - a truly awful decision that leaves the millennials in dire straits.

Although Scotland sounds massively significant, and the actual land area looks large, this referendum was decided by numbers and not by region.

Scotland had under 2.7 million votes registered, of which over 1.1 million voted to LEAVE, so it was not an overwhelming majority as one might first think.
2.7 million votes is about the equivalent of roughly 70% of the London vote (3.776 million)

Just also worth pointing out the following.

Wales is a massive "beneficiary" of EU funding. Wales is part of the UK.

For those not familiar with EU workings, the Welsh EU funding is money that the UK gives to the EU, who then passes some back to Wales and calls it EU money.
The theory is, in my opinion, that Wales is supposed to then be grateful to the EU for being so generous.

Wales recorded a 52.5% leave vote.


If Scotland's SNP politicians want to play games and use this as a chance to get a second independence referendum of their own, then I say call their bluff and do it straight away.
There are over one million of their voters who want to leave the EU, and many more of their "Remainers" who would vote to stay in the UK simply because their economy would tank within months, owing to the record lows in oil prices for the forseeable future.
Within a year, Scotland would be another Greece without the rest of the UK to help out.
And we all know how the EU/ECB and IMF did their best to make Greece's crash as painless as possible.
It was the treatment of Greece and the arrogant, ruthless way that other "poor" countries were "helped" by the EU/ECB/IMF that has removed the illusion of the Emperors clothes for a lot of EU europeans.

The third bailout of Greece is due soon. Watch this space, as they say.

I'll maybe explain what it was all about for me, Osso.

Democracy.

Show me one European Commisioner that was elected into position by the people.They are all appointed by the member countries.

These unelected European Commissioners formulate the laws within the EU. I have no method of voting them out if I disagree with what they do.
Ever.
How can you have legislation without representation?

To an American, it would be the equivalent of each State appointing a very good friend of the Governor to go along and meet with the other good friends and think up new laws.
They then pass these down to the elected bodies to approve.

The elected bodies cannot make up new laws of their own. They can only approvr or reject the new laws thought up by the group of Governors friends.


Do you remember someone called Baroness Ashton, who was the big cheese in the talks not so long ago about the Russian annexation of Crimea?

She represented the entire European Union in a very, very delicate and potentially disastrous situation, yet had NEVER been elected into any form of political office at all during her entire career.

She, basically, was a good political supporter of Tony Blair and was "rewarded" with the title of Baroness by him, and subsequently moved up the ladder to the EU gravy train in no time at all.

She quickly became not only one of the aforementioned Commissioners, but Vice President, I'll have you know.

Think about it. This totally unelected person, fast track promoted to represent hundreds of millons of people against Russian aggression, got her job by being a great friend to the sleazebag that is Tony Blair.

She was one of the people who sat for five years, formulating new EU laws and regulations.

I never voted for her. I had no mechanism to vote her out.


That, in a nutshell, is 80% of the reason why I voted brexit.

It may cause us harm, both financial and trade for the next year or so, but there is no way that I want fo be part of any organisation that is in any way democratically unnaccountable.

Once we accept that democracy takes a back seat, then the machine will have won and there is nothing we can do about it.
If we had voted to stay in, we would have seen the supreme irony of using the ultimate weapon of a democratic vote to help destroy our future democracy,

I breathed a huge sigh of relief this morning, although I know that we have a tough time ahead.

The big EU countries will not let us go easily, and will be as hard as possible in our future negotiations, because they know that if we get a good deal, then there are at least three countries who will push and push for their own referendum.
In a very recent poll, it was shown that the French are much more Eurosceptic than the Brits. If memory serves, it showed 49% of the Brits at that time wanted out, and 61% of the French.

France will never allow its people our sort of referendum. Perish the thought.

It will be interesting to :

a) Revive this thread every quarter or so, just to see if Britain has indeed fallen into the abyss and ask if we have as yet reverted to cannibalism, and

b) Compare notes with relevant economic figures from the EU, to see how they are all managing without us. One thing for certain is that it will lurch to the left.
Could be a good thing that we go, as they can then all get on and behave themselves in peace.
Just keep an eye on those unelected Commissioners though, eh?

I'm just curious as to why it was such a close vote when the people themselves didn't have any consensus on formulation the laws and regulations of their country.

I generally agree with your complaints about the illusions attendant to breaucratric rule by self styled progressives (whether in Brussels or Washington, or London for that matter), who tax the productive for the "benefit" of others, selected by the bureaucrats themselves, ostensibly for the public benefit, but in fact substantially motivated towards the preservation and expansion of their bureaucratic power over others. In addition they demand to be judged by the goodness of their intentions, and never by the results they actually achieve. Too bad life doesn't give that benefit to those whom they tax.

You know the results and possibilities in your country far better than do I. My point about the voting results was the apparent consistency of the result throughout Scotland and, as you have noted, in Western Wales. I assume this result may give rise to yet another vote by the Scottish separatists, though I have no insight as to how it may come out this time. Indeed I would view it as an unfortunate outcome for all. (just like those Scots and later Irish - always trying to make a deal with England's rivals on the continent.)

Interesting comments about the Greeks and the views of many over there on that subject. Frankly to me it seemed they were the authors of their own economic troubles. The EU powers were indeed protecting thir own banks, but they had their own nanny states to fund. That was hypocrisy - a universal failing. The fault was in the prolongued and excessive lending in the first place. ( A bit like a purveyor of narcotics)

I get your points and will add a yikes.

Will follow along.

(I have enough agita' with the US stuff and nonsense, but am trying to follow.)

I followed some of the Crimea business but not so far as to Lady Ashton. (not seeing her name as I type, so that may be wrong).

I agee with you about the nature of the EU government and the basic lack of democracy in it. Sometimes I have the impression thatr the EU parliament is the place where failed national politicians in the member states go to retire and die. The perhaps cruel irony here is that it was that bureaucracy, and that evasion of direct democratic rule, and the brokering that goes into EU commission posts was in part the device through which the EU proponents got around the national rivalries that caused so much destruction and suffering in the modern age. Moreover it all appeared (to me) to work wonderfully well for over a generation. Perhaps that's yet another reminder that, given the realities of human nature, there are some near optimal solutions to problems of human life, society and governence, but they all sow the seeds of their own demise - and the result is there are no permenent optimal solutions.

Don't let 52 to 48 fool you.

This UK of ours has had lies and scaremongering going on on both sides, in such a way as to shame all of our politicians.

The most frequent and threatening combatants in all this was the Batman and Robin duo that is our beloved PM and Chancellor, who enlisted the great and good to chuck every word of doom and gloom at us, so much so that it eventually worked its way to the top, whereby the esteemed President (I have no idea what he is President of, the EU has FIVE Presidents) of a very important part of the EU, Herr Juncker, stood up and (quiet at the back, I'm being serious now) stated that the UK leaving the EU could very well spell the end of western civilisation as we know it.

Stop sniggering at the back.

Coupled with the doomsday scenarios being pumped out, there were the threats.
The NHS would be at severe risk.
The pensioners could see their pensions reduced, etc, etc....the list of threats is extensive and comprehensive. Each day a new target audience was selected for a specific threat or warning.

Finally, Osborne (Chancellor) stated that if we voted out, then he would hold an emergency budget and tax us to the hilt, whilst making more savage cuts to the infrastructure of our country.

Coupled with all this unforgivably shitty behaviour, there is always the massive factor of people tending to vote for the safe status quo when faced with that or a leap into the unknown.

So.......the shell shocked, terrified, safe loving electorate went to the polls and STILL turned in a 52% leave vote.

In my humble opinion, I estimate that another 5% at the very least would have voted for brexit if they hadn't been so badly treated by Cameron and Osborne.
If there was a reasonable post brexit scenario mapped out (that was as much a leave camp failure as much as Cameron's) and Osborne hadn't been foaming at fhe mouth with his doomsday stuff every day, then you could have easily seen a 60% brexit or more, I reckon.

In the end, after all the crap we've been through, to still turn out a 52% leave is a bloody miracle.

I would finally like to take the opportunity to thank the absolutely brilliant Gisela Stuart for her commitment to getting the message across to the electorate during the csmpaign.

I didn't know much about her before, but now have great admiration for her, for the way she handled the whole situation and explained things clearly.
Gisela is German. She is also a Labour MP. I would be ecstatic if she was to be made PM tomorrow, as she is that good.

Well some here see the rise of a candidate like Donald Trump as illustrating perhaps vaguely similar public dissatisfaction with current ruling elites and things as they are. Lots of local differences, of course, and I' sure many Europeans will look with horror on the comparison. That said, I think there's something to it. Modern nanny states of all kinds gradually sap individual freedom and initiative, while the secular norms of the contemporary religion of political correctitude suppress even speech and discussion about it. The gathering pressure allows the steam ti escape in other areas and in disruptive ways.

IMO The leave vote was a triumph for naive cynicism on the part of economically and politically illiterate. The era of little 'sovereign nation states' with a nostalgia syndrome has had its day in this modern world of global communications and co-operation. Watch this space for the repercussions.
He that sows the wind shall reap the whirlwind.

And you can't unscramble eggs.

This is indeed a critical period for the European experiment. The unresolved issue of sovereignty, patticularly given the ever growing reach and intrusiveness of the bureaucratic state in Brussels, is serious and fairly widespreqd in the Union. Other issues, ranging from the North- South economic divide to some emerging East-West issues, the mild but growing general economic sclerosis attending the social welfare economies promoted by the EU, and finally a persistent widespread demographic decline coupled with persistent difficulties in assimilating external immigrant populations - all make for challenging times. In addition there are external stresses over which the EU has little control. Examples are the radically changed status and character of the EU's relations with neighboring Turkey in the Erdogan era, and the widespreac collapse of effective government among its Moslem neighbors to the south.

The BREXIT issue is to a large degree merly a symptom of these larger issues: it is not the main problem.

Several of these factors affect the U.S. as well, along with a few other challenges unique to us.

YouGov statistics show euroscepticism grew with age, with 56% of those aged 25 to 49 backing Remain, plunging to 44% of voters aged between 50 and 64.

Not everybody under 49 voted for Remain as you said and not everybody older voted for Brexit.

At any divorce there will be talks about trying to stay together or at least to solve the problems. There are steps taken to stop a seperation.
Why does it seems in Brexit as UK has to get out as soon as possible from EU?
Why does Merkel call in France and Italy for a discussion?
Seems to me like she wants to gossip behind the backs of the others I thought EU was supposed to cooperate and come up with ideas to solve the problem and maybe even get GB not to leave.
Britain is not out yet and still there is a meeting with the rest of the 27.
In a seperation the most important is to talk with the one who wants to leave.
On the other hand Germany, France and Italy have always had a certain arrogant attitude towards Great Britain.
Denmark and Sweden are not happy about this Brexit. They are loosing an allied in EU. Three countries who have been thinking in the same way.
I have a feeling that Sweden and Denmark are sadder and more understanding than Germany and France.
The EU hardliner should be careful in name calling in the worst form when it comes to older people being sceptical to EU. Just because you are sceptical does not mean you are a nationalist or racist or even worse words I do not even want to mention.
Juncker wants to force the reamining 8 countries without Euro to get Euro instead of their national money system. (was that maybe over his morning drink?)
Wasn´t it about 80 years ago that some hardliners had the same ideas - the youth is our future and whoever is not for us is against us.