9
   

Is the Euro well and truly buggered?

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 16 Nov, 2011 12:18 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
HAVE INVESTORS IN EUROPE USURPED NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY FROM THE PEOPLE?


-1 popularity huh.....that looks all the world like the typical American head in the sand response to unwanted information.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Nov, 2011 10:54 am
@georgeob1,
georgeob1 wrote:


........... It remains to be seen whether the "technocratic" new governments of Greece and Italy will be able to command the political force with which to really apply the very likely wise economic remedies they will propose.

.....................

For Greece, it's either that or the money stops - generally an easy decision. Italy (in one German view, widely quoted in Berlin but unofficial) must choose between "a European future, or an African one". Gibbon gets quoted a lot recently as well as Tacitus, Agricola, other stars of the original EU imperium:
http://im.media.ft.com/content/images/180dda40-0fb9-11e1-a468-00144feabdc0.img
From the Financial Times (Martin Wolf)
Quote:
...........What is at stake today is not only the stability of the European – perhaps the world’s – economy, but the survival of the most successful – and certainly most civilised – effort to unite Europe since the fall of the western Roman empire 1,535 years ago. As Walter Scheidel of Stanford University notes in a fascinating essay: “Two thousand years ago, perhaps half of the entire species had come under the control of just two powers, the Roman and Han empires.” Both collapsed. But the Chinese empire was repeatedly restored and enlarged, while the Roman empire divided irretrievably. Yet the dream of reunification never died. It was apparent in the claims of popes and “holy Roman emperors”. It was carried by Napoleon’s eagles. It is the aspiration embedded in the European Union.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Nov, 2011 11:21 am
@High Seas,
We agree on the stakes involved and the historical context as well. The question is - will it be sufficient to motivate the political forces involved - in Greece, Italy, and perhaps France - to make the changes that are required? We face some of the same issues here as well. I do not believe that a favorable outcome is assured, and note that history is usually indifferent to the fate of even great cultures.
0 Replies
 
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Thu 17 Nov, 2011 02:42 pm
I love that cartoon, High Seas Laughing (especially how Sarkozy is so small compared to the others)

Well, I think I have changed my mind and I think that Germany would fare better if they step back in pressuring Greece or Italy. It won't help if Merkel forces the Greek or Italian government to comply with a financial package that is destined to fail. Not only will it fail, it will create much more animosity among the European partners; it's strained already so why continue putting the screws to them. Yes, the fiscal catastrophe was self inflicted, but we can't change it now, so let's look ahead, assess the damage and move on either with their (Greece, Italy) cooperation or without them.

I think that the German government has already a plan B in motion, should Greece default, so why not implement that and move ahead.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Fri 18 Nov, 2011 12:16 am
Quote:
The policies which it has been imposing on other countries are flawed policies,” said Whyte. “Germany wants to turn the euro zone into a larger version of itself. That is essentially going to push the block as a whole into a depression.”

This in turn could lead to growing hostility towards Germany, he said. “If you’re swallowing what is perceived to be German medicine, and that medicine is essentially forcing economies to contract by 20 percent, with sharp increases in unemployment — and on top of that the Germans are saying, well, you clearly haven’t gone far enough and you need to do even more — then it’s inevitable that anti-German feeling is going to increase.”

Teemu Lehtinen, a Finnish public-policy adviser living in Athens, said, “It currently seems like the EU is being run by a group of large states, and the head of those is Germany.” This does not go down well at home with ordinary Greek citizens, he said, and makes them feel that the decision-making power is taken away from them and their elected politicians.

“It’s not that the Greeks trust their government or their parliament that much,” he added. “But it leads to the question: Who is in charge of our future? And more and more it seems that the Greeks think their future is in the hands of Mrs. Merkel.”


http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/111114/germany-fourth-reich-euro-zone-dominance

sounds right....

Quote:
Germans tended to lead from behind, and allow the French symbolically to occupy a major role,” said William Paterson, professor of German politics at Aston University in the UK. Now, however, the French economy appears increasingly shaky, with its banks deeply exposed to the debt of weak peripheral countries. Paris is desperately attempting to hold on to its coveted triple-A credit rating. The traditional relationship has tilted power toward Germany.

For all the talk of “Merkozy,” it’s increasingly clear that the German chancellor is in the driver’s seat.

“Germany does everything it can to portray an image of evenness, and a balanced relationship” with France, said Olaf Cramme, director of the Policy Network think-tank based in London. However “the relationship has become extremely one-sided, and Germany is calling the shots,” policymakers in France have told him, he said.


As I have been asserting for months....
0 Replies
 
Old Goat
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Nov, 2011 04:03 am
From the Daily Mail....

"EURO - HIGH HOPE - DEEP DOUBT."


Pertinent Snippet: ...
"Perhaps more worryingly, Frankfurt has decided that the really important policymaking decisions will be shrouded in secrecy. Whereas the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve publish the minutes and voting of their interest-rate setting bodies, the European Central Bank refuses to do so.
This is another symptom of the Eurocrats' pervasive secrecy, which runs against the need for openness and democratic accountability. Similarly, while Britain and the US set interest rates to ensure economic growth as well as low inflation, the ECB's mandate is only to keep prices stable. As a result the new euro currency area, with its one- size-fits-all interest rate policy, risks suppressing growth and raising unemployment.
This is particularly serious in a region which lacks the means to transfer cash from the wealthier regions and nations in the North to the poorer areas of the South.
If that were to happen, euroland would need a common budget policy to raise the taxes.
This is exactly what sceptics warn about - that the euro's supporters will use it to demand much more sweeping changes, which will drive a coach and horses through national sovereignty. This is dangerous territory indeed..."


Stating the obvious? Maybe - but please note that this article was written in 2002!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-1546024/Euro-high-hope-deep-doubt.html

High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Nov, 2011 11:02 am
@Old Goat,
The 2002 article from Daily Mail isn't just old, it's also wrong.

The US Federal Reserve has an objective of price stability, same as the ECB; it's also supposed to try to keep unemployment low. Not at all the same thing as what your article claims, about promoting economic growth. Right now the US economy is growing but unemployment isn't coming down.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Nov, 2011 11:10 am
I have argued elsewhere on A2K that in America freedom was taken by the the government from the people by deceit, but that in Europe the people knowingly and willingly gave up freedom. In the following David Brooks makes the case that European governments have also used deceit as SOP.

Quote:
Then there was the elitism. Off the record, Europe’s technocrats would say the most blatantly condescending things: History had taught them that Europe’s peoples were not to be trusted and government should be run from the top by people like themselves.

As a consequence, European integration was opaque, and consisted of a long series of complicated fudges. When the European Union leaders were compelled to seek popular approval to get the Maastricht Treaty ratified, they sponsored a forlorn rally in a Brussels park. There were E.U. flags and booths and speakers. But the crowd was bored and sparse. At one point, everyone was asked to sing the new European national anthem to the tune of “Ode to Joy.” Dead silence. No one knew the new words that had been written to go with that masterpiece.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/opinion/brooks-the-technocratic-nightmare.html?_r=1&hp

We will see now if the people of Europe can be woken up.
0 Replies
 
High Seas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 18 Nov, 2011 11:12 am
@CalamityJane,
There's a plan B, but the Finance Minister isn't spelling out details - in fact I think he has plans C and D all lined up, ready to roll out whichever is needed. But George is right the US isn't really less indebted than even the peripheral European countries; you have to look at total debt to GDP to see that >
http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/11/111118-US-debt-to-gdp-across-sectors.jpg
Another reason the Daily Mail article our host posted previously is wrong: this graph goes back to the 1920s, and at the time neither the Fed nor the BofE could do anything to stop the deleveraging debacle in time to avert the Great Depression. Money-printing isn't as easy as it sounds, and the ECB knows it.

..... > at least on the positive side we're somewhat below the world indebtedness average, though not by much:
http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/11/111118-Changes-in-debt-by-country-and-decade.jpg
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Nov, 2011 03:35 pm
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,799550,00.html

Cycloptichorn
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Nov, 2011 03:39 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Yes, plan B might come sooner than we thought, but it only can work if the
(still) financially intact EU countries act fast.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Nov, 2011 03:43 pm
@CalamityJane,
CalamityJane wrote:

Yes, plan B might come sooner than we thought, but it only can work if the
(still) financially intact EU countries act fast.


There are none....even the Germans are now getting hit, their ten year bond sale yesterday was a disaster.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Nov, 2011 03:50 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
This failure of a German Bond offering is another reminder that the ability of indebted governments (that's nearly all of them) to continue recycling their debt is dependent on the consent of those who would lend to them and buy their bonds. It works well up until the moment when it stops working at all, and change can occur suddenly and without warning.

In the case of Germany, a nation that has managed both its economy and overall debt level very well, the market appears to be demanding a higher rate of return, probably because of perceived exposure to Euro wide problems. This should remind us that our government's attempts to keep interest rates down (something it needs desperately to sustain its uncontrolled deficit spending) through massive buying of Federal debt by the Fed and our (fragile) position as the ultimate source of safe investment could very easily fail very suddenly and also without warning.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Nov, 2011 03:54 pm
@georgeob1,
Why lock up your money for 10 years at these rates?
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Nov, 2011 03:55 pm
@High Seas,
It's interesting to note that Portugal hasn't been in the media cycle lately even though their deficit ratio to GDP is the highest.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 Nov, 2011 02:24 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Well they made the news today as some analysts downgraded their bonds to junk status.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Thu 24 Nov, 2011 06:41 pm
@georgeob1,
Interesting; in addition to Germany's bond sale going kaput, the Euro is now trading at US$1.33 - and will probably go down to around $1.25 in a couple of weeks or less.
High Seas
 
  2  
Reply Fri 25 Nov, 2011 09:32 am
@cicerone imposter,
Very far from going kaputt the long bond auction was a masterstroke by the German Fincnce Agency - their short-term bonds yield close to zero, so it's hardly a funding shortfall - taking pressure off their chancellor and off the ECB simultaneously, while not overburdening the Finanzagentur with inventory.
Quote:
....The Finanzagentur issued only 3.9bln cash. They gave 3.9bln bunds to the market and kept 2.1bln bonds on their books. In the future they can sell this retention amount into the secondary market, raising cash....

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/11/german-bunds
Brilliant logistical execution by Wolfgang S. Smile
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Nov, 2011 10:47 am
@High Seas,
I don't see it that way, because the value of the Euro will continue to deteriorate to a much lower level. Losing value from low interest rates in addition to the lower value of the Euro makes it a bad investment vehicle.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Nov, 2011 01:04 pm
I don't believe that we have yet noted that Hungarian debt has now been added to the junk pile.....
0 Replies
 
 

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