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Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

 
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 02:59 pm
@JPB,
I thought that Mrs Clinton had been locked in a broom cupboard after last week's debacle.

It could be that supporters of the revolutions are unconsciously expressing a certain dissatisfaction with their own predicament albeit in a muted and vicarious manner.

Lining up with the underdog suggests a fellow-feeling despite it being inconsistent with scientific Darwinian principles.

It's more a Jesus thing. There's certainly nothing innate or instinctive about it as Ghengis Khan's hordes proved. To name but one bunch of hooligans.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 03:00 pm
@spendius,
And I don't think there were all that many protesters living on $2 a week.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 03:53 pm
@spendius,
spendius wrote:

I thought that Mrs Clinton had been locked in a broom cupboard after last week's debacle.


I wish!


9:30pm GMT:
Inside Iran, the Islamic Republic's News Agency has managed to avoid any mention of the protests, while the semi-official Fars news agency – which boasts links to the Revolutionary Guard hardcore – has triumphant news: "Agents of the United States and Zionism were defeated again."

According to Fars, only a few hundred "foolish" people took to the streets:

In today's illegal gathering, elements of the Mojahedin Khalgh [MKO], monarchists, thugs, and criminal of sedition were present in some streets in Tehran to support the people of Egypt and Tunis, but they did not chant a single slogan in their support.

After [the protestors] realized there was not going to be popular support for them, they began running away and left the scene.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 04:31 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
After [the protestors] realized there was not going to be popular support for them, they began running away and left the scene.


And if the Army had arrived announcing an intention to protect the protesters there would have been millions on the streets in short order.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 05:06 pm
@georgeob1,
The jihadists have a large following in the generation that was at the forefront of Egyptian uprising, but it always good to see moderate forces at work in the region.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 05:09 pm
@realjohnboy,
Elections in six months or less.

That's surprising.

I don't think it's enough time ffor the reformists to organize, but perhaps that the armies intent.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 05:16 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Finn: I missed the "Six months or less" suggestion. I see at it as being closer to a year.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 05:26 pm
@realjohnboy,
From the Independent's summary I posted yesterday:

Quote:
When will there be an election?

The timetable set out by Mubarak as he struggled to stay in power was for elections to take place in September 2011 at the latest, and this is what a majority of those who took part in the 25 January revolution would like to see – though not on his terms, of course. But Mohamed ElBaradei, the Egyptian Nobel peace laureate, wrote in The New York Times yesterday of a process overseen by a presidential council, including a representative to oversee the constitutional changes required to ensure free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections "within a year". The problem is how to achieve such reforms – which include lifting emergency powers, guaranteeing freedom of speech, limiting presidential terms, allowing any bona fide candidate to stand, and perhaps transferring some presidential powers to a prime minister – without recourse to the current parliament, whose legitimacy is so low because of last November's rigged elections.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/egypt-the-key-questions-answered-2213292.html
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 05:31 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

Finn: I missed the "Six months or less" suggestion. I see at it as being closer to a year.


I hope that's what they mean't but I'm uncertain.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 05:55 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Hard to guess what might be the plans or motives of those involved. The conventional wisdom appears to be that more than six months will be required to allow competing political parties to coalesce and organize. However a long interregnum also leaves time for other authoritarian actors to organize and attempt to hijack the process. The real world confronts all of the participants, particularly including the democratically inclined ones with lots of conflicting, even contradictory imperatives.

The Army has, since the displacement of King Farouk, 50 years ago, been the principal source of political power in Egypt: old institutional habits can be hard to break. All things considered, I am inclined to favor a fairly rapid schedule over a prolonged one. Happily, it's not up to me to decide.
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:02 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Mubarak had promised to stand down after his preferred time for the next election (in September 2011), Finn.
He was hoping that he could hold onto power until then.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12340923

But, of course, the anti-government protesters wanted him to leave immediately.

It now appears very doubtful that there will be an election in 6 months time.
0 Replies
 
djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:06 pm
now that Egypt is old news, i guess the next pressing question has to be, in which middle eastern country will Dandyson Cooper get punched in head, i'm hoping for Iran, but i'd settle for Yemen
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:06 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
I hope that's what they mean't but I'm uncertain.


Aw--shucks. I hate uncertainty.

I didn't see the FANTASTIC rebuttal Ican said rjb made but most of the recent posts on this thread sure are FANTASTIC.

The Big Story here is that Kate Middleton has appointed her sister to be Matron of Honour at the upcoming jamboree to celebrate Kate placing her facilities in the service of an orderly transition of monarchical power.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:06 pm
@georgeob1,
That may be possible, but it will be difficult today, because of the access to information and communication.

The pro-democracy people who now make up the majority in Egypt will make every effort to control extremists from getting any foothold in their government; especially the younger generation.
djjd62
 
  2  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:10 pm
@JPB,
JPB wrote:
Oh! This will be a big help.

6:56pm GMT: Hillary Clinton has sent a message of support for Iranian protesters and accused Iran's government of "hypocrisy" for praising the protests in Egypt while cracking down on dissent in its own country.

Clinton said Iran's protesters "deserve to have the same rights that they saw being played out in Egypt and are part of their own birthright," and that the US government "very clearly and directly support the aspirations of the people who are in the streets" of Tehran


now normally i have little or no use for ms. clinton, but here i say bravo
spendius
 
  0  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:13 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Do people in your pub not fall about in uncontrolled exhibitions of tittering ci. when you make such fatuous pronouncements. I certainly wouldn't risk anything of that nature in my pub despite how fine it sounds.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:14 pm
@djjd62,
Quote:
now normally i have little or no use for ms. clinton, but here i say bravo


But she has been strangely quiet about Bahrain.
djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:17 pm
@spendius,
much like a certain bear (who lived under the name of saunders), i fear she has little bahrain Razz
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:22 pm
Latest report from the BBC:

Quote:

14 February 2011 Last updated at 20:52 GMT
Iran police fire tear gas at opposition rally in Tehran

Thousands of opposition supporters have clashed with security forces in the centre of the Iranian capital, Tehran.

Police used tear gas and detained dozens rallying in solidarity with uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. There was one report of a death in Tehran.

The BBC also received reports of similar protests being held in the cities of Isfahan, Mashhad and Shiraz.


Earlier, the police placed opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest, according to his website.


It said the move was intended to prevent the former prime minister attending the march in Tehran, which the authorities had prohibited. The road leading to Mr Mousavi's house was also blocked by police vans.

Fellow opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi, a former speaker of parliament and a senior cleric, is also reportedly under de facto house arrest.

Riding on the back of a motorbike, holding my mobile to take video footage, I went to central Tehran on Monday afternoon. My driver skilfully found back alleys to reach Azadi (Freedom) Square, the Iranian counterpart of Egypt's Tahrir Square.

Thousands of people made their way amicably and silently towards the square, most of them young. Many wore trainers, suggesting they were anticipating having to run away from the security forces to escape arrest.

Riot police began to disperse the crowd before they even started the rally. Men on motorbikes belonging to the police and Republican Guards charged the protesters and beat them severely with batons. However, this merely emboldened them.

When the troops fired tear gas at the crowd, it became very difficult to breathe. Some girls and women fainted. Many of the protesters were also detained. Others set rubbish bins on fire to combat the effects of the gas.

My driver was hit by a paintball fired by a policeman and lightly injured, but he was still able to drive me back to the office. Once there, I was shocked to see that official and semi-official news agencies were saying everything was normal when for a couple of hours, there had been total chaos.

Both men disputed the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009, which triggered mass protests that drew the largest crowds in Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The demonstrations eventually led to a brutal crackdown.

The opposition says more than 80 of its supporters were killed over the following six months, a figure the government disputes. Several have been sentenced to death, and dozens jailed.

Paintball shooting

In their first major show of dissent since Ashura in December 2009, when eight people were killed, thousands of opposition supporters defied the government ban and gathered at Tehran's Azadi Square on Monday, chanting, "Death to dictators".

Riot police and plain-clothes police backed by the elite Republican Guard used tear gas to disperse the protesters, he adds. ...<cont>


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12447225
0 Replies
 
msolga
 
  1  
Reply Mon 14 Feb, 2011 06:28 pm
From Al Jazeera:

Quote:

Thousands rally across Yemen
Last Modified: 14 Feb 2011 18:07 GMT

Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets across Yemen for the fourth straight day, demanding political reforms and the downfall of Ali Abdullah Saleh, the country's long-serving president.

The 3,000-strong throng of demonstrators in the capital, Sanaa, comprising students, human rights activists and lawyers clad in black robes, clashed with police and pro-government supporters on Monday.


Rival groups, armed with clubs and rocks, were seen facing off after supporters of Saleh reportedly confronted the protesters.

At least three people were injured, including one stabbed with a traditional Yemeni dagger, in fighting outside Sanaa's university where protesters chanted: "A revolution of free opinion ... A revolution of freedom ... We should be allowed to decide."

Further chants of "After Mubarak, Ali" and "No corruption after today" reverberated around the city.

"It's very tense on the streets here," Al Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra, reporting form Sanaa, said.

"The anti-government protests are gathering momentum, despite the huge concessions given by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who said that he will step down in 2013, and that his son, General Ahmed Abdullah Saleh - who was being groomed to take over - won't inherit power.

"Thousands of young Yemenis are saying: 'We won't trust Ali Abdullah Saleh, because we trusted him in the past, particularly in 2006, when he said he was about to resign - only for him to continue and to ask for the constitution to be amended to allow him to be appointed for life'. ...<cont>


http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/201121211858966496.html
0 Replies
 
 

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