Tunesia, Egyt and now Yemen: a domino effect in the Middle East?

CBS probably wishes you had a Nielsen box!

Quite a flurry in the last 20mins.

4:29pm GMT: The White House has said the situation in Egypt is "fluid" and they do not know anything about Mubarak's plans.

4.25pm: The prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, says Mubarak is still in power and no decisions have been taken that would change that. Shafiq said:

He is in his position. No decisions have been passed on from the president. Everything is normal. Everything is still in the hands of the president. The supreme leader [Mubarak] is informed of everything going on inside the Higher Military Council.

4.24pm: Al-Arabiya television is reporting that Mubarak has travelled to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh with his army chief of staff.

4.22pm: My colleague Alexandra Topping has filed a story on the resignation rumours.

4.20pm: Hossam Badrawi, the secretary general of Mubarak's NDP party, has reiterated to the BBC that he wants the president to step down, and said that is the position of the whole of the NDP. Badrawi told the BBC what he wanted Mubarak to say to Egypt:

That he has fulfilled his promises to the people, he respects the requests of the young people in the street, and he is doing the right step to keep the country intact and hand the power to the vice-president.

4.15pm: Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, was not at the army council meeting either, the Associated Press reports.

4.14pm: The Associated Press notes that the army council's statement was labeled "communique number one", which the news agency says is "a phrasing that suggests a military coup".

4.13pm: This is the quote from Leon Panetta, the head of the CIA:

There's a strong likelihood that Mubarak may step down this evening, which would be significant in terms of where the, hopefully, orderly transition in Egypt takes place.

4.12pm: More unverified accounts of what is happening in Egypt. Mubarak is still in negotiations over whether to hand power to Suleiman, according to Reuters. An Egyptian official told the news agency: "It is not decided yet ... It is still in negotiation."

4.10pm: Some contradiction of these reports from Egypt's information minister, Anas el-Fekky, according to Reuters. He said:

The president is still in power and he is not stepping down. The president is not stepping down and everything you heard in the media is a rumour.

4:36pm: Egyptian state TV says Hosni Mubarak will speak to the nation from his palace in Cairo this evening.

There are rumours state TV employees are leaving the building for fear of a coming backlash.

4.34pm: Al-Jazeera is reporting that the NDP chief reportedly stopped Mubarak making a speech handing power to Suleiman.

THIS is why protesters SHOULDN'T LEAVE UNTIL THE JOB IS DONE

If he does step down - what a thing for a popular action to have accomplished in the Middle East.

Cycloptichorn

From the NYT

Al Arabiya, the Saudi-owned Arab satellite channel, has reported that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has traveled to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh with his army chief of staff, according to Reuters.

My colleagues in Cairo report:

Egypt's armed forces on Thursday announced that they had begun to take "necessary measures to protect the nation and support the legitimate demands of the people," a step that suggested the military intends to take a commanding role in administering the strife-torn nation.

Dr. Hossam Badrawy, the new head of the Mubarak regime's ruling party, told CNN a few minutes ago that he "would not be satisfied" to see Egypt's military rule the country and promised to make "revolutionary changes" to the nation's politics.

Mosa'ab Elshamy, an activist and blogger in Cairo's Tahrir Square responded to the news on Twitter this way: "If it turns out the army will rule us now, we'll take a break for the weekend and start another revolution."

You mean, I presume, that I should save you from the ignominy of putting me on Ignore so that your'e not reading my comments ceases to be your responsibity.

I find it obnoxious that a proud and noble nation of nearly 90 million people is being patronised for entertainment as it is being in many posts on this thread and in much of the media.

I have no idea whether wishing the protesters well will have any effect or whether it is the equivalent of wishing the Egyptian people well. Not just this week. Or next week. Or next year. Or in ten years.

Cyclo is going minute by minute as it seems are a good few others.

I do know that wishing the protesters well is a surefire way of being popular and some would say using them to acheive just such an effect.

Did you know that conscription applies in Egypt for all males between 18 and 30 for up to 3 years duration and succeeded by 9 years on reserve. Which means, I suppose, that most of the male protesters have been in the services and are still on the reserve roll call. The rest are either unfit or are abroad under the jurisdiction of a permit from the appropriate ministry.

Hah, I woke up and it was the first thing I saw in the news. I hadn't thought much about this for the last few days.

The AP is reporting that the military has refused to crack down on the protesters (per last nights rumors) and has basically told Mubarak that it's time to go - right now.

Cycloptichorn

I think you may want to give some thought to the possibility that your assessment of people's interest is incorrect.

The latest here is that Mubarak has already gone and the TV broadcast is pre-recorded. The TV building is said to be empty because of rumours that the protesters are going to burn it down.

5:00pm GMT: My colleague Brian Whitaker, the Guardian's former Middle East editor, sends this analysis:

It now seems clear that Mubarak is about to go (especially since the information minister is denying it) and the army is about to come to the fore.

Beyond that, the picture is still unclear. Does it mean vice-president Suleiman will also be going, or not? The army and Suleiman running Egypt together is not a prospect that would please many Egyptians, despite their relief at Mubarak's departure.

Another option would be a military takeover, probably with a new military-led government (but including a substantial proportion of civilians) and a promise of new elections within a year or so. From the demonstrators' point of view that's not very attractive either, though it might offer better prospects for dismantling the old regime ahead of elections. The US seems to have a fair amount of leverage over the military and would probably try to ensure that military rule did not last too long.

At this stage, though, we can't be sure of anything and there could be more surprises in store.

6:03 pm GMT: Reuters quotes Essam al-Erian of the Muslim Brotherhood saying: "It looks like a military coup. I feel worry and anxiety. The problem is not with the president it is with the regime."
Live blog: substitution

5.55pm GMT: "The revolution will not be televised" according to Gil Scott Heron – turns out he was wrong, at least in Egypt at this point.

Hello from Washington DC, where the US cable TV networks are all focused intently on Egypt, as hopes grow that Mubarak will be gone tonight.

According to CNN – which is doing a fine job today – its sources are saying that the military will take control at some point, with a particularly droll quote from a "senior Egyptian official":

"It's not a coup, it's a consensus."

6:15pm GMT: The Associated Press has just run a flash: "CAIRO (AP) — State TV: Egypt's information minister denies that Mubarak will step down."

At this point it's hard to know what to believe.

6.10pm GMT: Now the Egyptian information ministry is saying that Mubarak is not going to stand down, according to state television.

More when we get it.

6.03pm GMT: 6pm ET: Egyptian state television is running some sort of strange patriotic promo for Mubarak's appearance tonight, scheduled for 8pm GMT, with people shaking hands with the military and waving flags.

It is remarkably reminiscent of the BBC satire The Day Today's "It's alright," a film held in reserve for times of crisis.

The Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces has met to discuss the ongoing protests against the government of Hosni Mubarak, the president.

In a statement entitled 'Communique Number One', televised on state television, the army said it had convened the meeting response to the current political turmoil, and that it would continue to convene such meetings.

Thurday's meeting was chaired by Mohamed Tantawi, the defence minister, rather than Mubarak, who, as president, would normally have headed the meeting.

"Based on the responsibility of the armed forces and its commitment to protect the people and its keenness to protect the nation... and in support of the legitimate demands of the people [the army] will continue meeting on a continuous basis to examine measures to be taken to protect the nation and its gains and the ambitions of the great Egyptian people," the statement.

The army's statement was met with a roar of approval from protesters in Tahrir Square as vast crowds poured into the area.

Earlier, Hassan al-Roweni, an Egyptian army commander, told protesters in the square that "everything you want will be realised".


Click here for more on Al Jazeera's special coverage

Protesters have demanded that Mubarak immediately stand down as president.

Hassam Badrawi, the secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), told the BBC and Channel 4 News on that he expected Mubarak to hand over his powers to Omar Suleiman, the vice-president.

"I think the right thing to do now is to take the action that would satisfy ... protesters," Badrawi told BBC television in a live interview.

Ahmed Shafiq, the country's prime minister, also told the BBC that the president may step down on Thursday evening, and that the situation would be "clarified soon". He told the Reuters news agency, however, that Mubarak remained in control, and that "everything is still in the hands of the president".

However, Anas el-Fekky, Egypt's information minister, denied all reports of Mubarak resigning.

"The president is still in power and he is not stepping down," el-Fekky told Reuters. "The president is not stepping down and everything you heard in the media is a rumour."

State television has announced that Mubarak is due to deliver an address to the nation on Thursday night from the presidential palace in Cairo.

It also reported that Mubarak was meeting with Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, at the presidential palace.

Mahmoud Zaher, a retired general in the Egyptian army, said that Mubarak's absence from the army meeting was a "clear and strong indication that [Mubarak] is no longer present", implying that the Egyptian president was not playing a role in governance any longer.

Robert Gibbs, the White House spokesman, said the US was closely watching a "very fluid situation".

Wael Ghonim, the Google executive who has played a key role in helping protesters get organised, said on the microblogging site Twitter on Thursday evening: "Mission accomplished. Thanks to all the brave young Egyptians."

He added shortly after, however, that protesters should "wait and see" before reaching any conclusions.

Jacky Rowland, our correspondent in Tahrir Square, described the atmosphere as "electric", with "standing room only" in the central Cairo area. She said that thousands gathered there were "celebrating a victory which has been anticipated, rather than actually achieved".

Some opposition groups, however, have said that they are concerned about how Mubarak would hand power over to, were he to resign.

"It looks like a military coup," said Essam al-Erian of the Muslim Brotherhood, the banned but tolerated group which is the biggest organised opposition party in Egypt. "I feel worry and anxiety. The
problem is not with the president it is with the regime."

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Amin Eskander, the leader of the Karama opposition movement said that he believed that Mubarak would stand down. He also said that he was not concerned if power was handed over to the military for an interim period, as he said the army was working in the interests of the people.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/02/20112101653445426.html

( I can't get the BBCode editor thing to work. Don't know how to embedd and use all those computer tech codes.)

It seems the Egyptian army is doing the right thing by protecting its people from the tyrant Mubarak. Some thought the army might attack their own people as in Tiananmen Square; I doubted it then, and still doubt it now.

I'm wondering if there's an on-going disagreement between Mubarak/Suleiman and the military.

Also, there's disagreement amongst the protesters between whether Mubarak should be detained and charged crimes against the people or be allowed to leave so they can move on towards the future.

7:27 pm GMT:Reports are that now even state television, Nile TV, are screening live footage of the pro-democracy demonstrators in Tahrir Square and elsewhere – an abrupt change from the pro-regime footage it had been showing in recent days, including interviews with supposed "protesters" who made wild claims of US and Mossad involvement.

7.18pm GMT: Now William Hague has weighed in, speaking at a press conference in Bahrain:

We have said from the start of this crisis in Egypt that there should be an orderly transition and that, in our view, has to include a broadly-based government in Egypt and giving the Egyptian people real and visible and comprehensive evidence of change.

That will then allow the people of Egypt to work out their political differences together in a peaceful and democratic way.

7.10pm GMT: The Al Arabiya television channel is reporting that Hosni Mubarak will announce new constitutional procedures before handing over his powers to vice president Omar Sulieman, according to its correspondent. There were no further details.

I know that it is a big deal for Mubarak to officially step down, but will Sulieman satisfy the protesters demands?

No, not from what anyone is saying. He's considered as much a part of the "regime" as Mubarak.

From NYT
Issandr El Amrani, a Moroccan-American journalist who runs The Arabist blog from Cairo, notes on Twitter that Egyptians need answers to three questions:

1. Suleiman or not? 2. Coup or constitutional transition? 3. More negotiations or adoption of opposition demands?

Don't forget; Sulieman is the one who's been making threats against his own people. He cannot be trusted.