WikiLeaks about to hit the fan

Quote:

How WikiLeaks Just Set Back Democracy in Zimbabwe
(By Christopher R. Albon, The Atlantic, December 28, 2010)

Last year, early on Christmas Eve morning, representatives from the U.S., United Kingdom, Netherlands, and the European Union arrived for a meeting with Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Appointed prime minister earlier that year as part of a power-sharing agreement after the fraud- and violence-ridden 2008 presidential election, Tsvangirai and his political party, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), are considered Zimbabwe's greatest hopes for unseating the country's long-time de facto dictator Robert Mugabe and bringing democratic reforms to the country.

The topic of the meeting was the sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe by a collection of western countries, including the U.S. and E.U. Tsvangirai told the western officials that, while there had been some progress in the last year, Mugabe and his supporters were dragging their feet on delivering political reforms. To overcome this, he said that the sanctions on Zimbabwe "must be kept in place" to induce Mugabe into giving up some political power. The prime minister openly admitted the incongruity between his private support for the sanctions and his public statements in opposition. If his political adversaries knew Tsvangirai secretly supported the sanctions, deeply unpopular with Zimbabweans, they would have a powerful weapon to attack and discredit the democratic reformer.

Later that day, the U.S. embassy in Zimbabwe dutifully reported the details of the meeting to Washington in a confidential U.S. State Department diplomatic cable. And slightly less than one year later, WikiLeaks released it to the world.

The reaction in Zimbabwe was swift. Zimbabwe's Mugabe-appointed attorney general announced he was investigating the Prime Minister on treason charges based exclusively on the contents of the leaked cable. While it's unlikely Tsvangirai could be convicted on the contents of the cable alone, the political damage has already been done. The cable provides Mugabe the opportunity to portray Tsvangirai as an agent of foreign governments working against the people of Zimbabwe. Furthermore, it could provide Mugabe with the pretense to abandon the coalition government that allowed Tsvangirai to become prime minister in 2009.

It's difficult to see this as anything but a major setback for democracy in Zimbabwe. Even if Tsvangirai is not charged with treason, the opponents to democratic reforms have won a significant victory. First, popular support for Tsvangirai and the MDC will suffer due to Mugabe's inevitable smear campaign, including the attorney general's "investigation." Second, the Prime Minister might be forced to take positions in opposition to the international community to avoid accusation of being a foreign collaborator. Third, Zimbabwe's fragile coalition government could collapse completely. Whatever happens, democratic reforms in Zimbabwe are far less likely now than before the leak.

To their supporters, WikiLeaks and its founder Julian Assange are heroes of the democratic cause. Assange himself has claimed that his organization promotes democracy by strengthening the media. But in Zimbabwe, Assange's pursuit of this noble goal has provided a tyrant with the ammunition to wound, and perhaps kill, any chance for multiparty democracy. Earlier this month, Assange claimed that "not a single person, as far as anyone is aware, has been harmed" by Wikileaks' practices. This is no longer true, if it ever was.

Any damage to democratic reforms from WikiLeaks likely comes not from malice but naivety. Assange is probably not best described, as Vice President Joe Biden recently put it, a "high-tech terrorist." Rather, he, his organization, and their activist supporters believe that they can promote democracy by making an enemy of secrecy itself. What we're seeing in Zimbabwe, however, is that those methods won't necessarily be without significant collateral damage.

hawk, What part of science use "some bastard process?" This, I gotta hear.

Your part. Readings off instruments taking priority over social consequences.

Treason threat for Tsvangirai ‘an electoral move’
(HOPEWELL RADEBE, Business Day, December 29, 2010)

THE Zimbabwean government’s threat to investigate treason charges against Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai over his confidential talks with US diplomats disclosed by WikiLeaks was Zanu (PF)’s opening salvo ahead of proposed elections next year, analysts said yesterday.

The South African government yesterday refused to speculate on how new treason charges, if instituted against Mr Tsvangirai, would affect President Jacob Zuma ’s mediation efforts.

Siphamandla Zondi, executive director at the Institute for Global Dialogue, said the WikiLeaks revelations would hurt Mr Tsvangirai’s political stature, and were likely to be exploited by President Robert Mugabe to discredit him and reinforce negative perceptions spread by Zanu (PF) that the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) was "the political surrogates and puppets" of western powers.

The attorney-general, Johannes Tomana, reportedly said he intended appointing a commission of five lawyers to examine whether recent disclosures amounted to a breach of the constitution.

A US embassy cable dated December 24 2009 suggested Mr Tsvangirai privately insisted sanctions "must be kept in place" but asked for some "flexibility" in sanctions.

The cable quotes Mr Tsvangirai saying: "Zanu (PF) has implemented a strategy of reciprocity in the negotiations, using western sanctions as a cudgel against MDC. He (Tsvangirai) would like to see some quiet moves, provided there are acceptable benchmarks, to ‘give’ some modest reward for modest progress."

Mr Tomana said the leaks "appear to show a treasonous collusion" between Zimbabweans and "the aggressive international world", particularly the US. High treason in Zimbabwe can result in the death penalty.

Mr Zuma is said to be exasperated by continued bickering in Zimbabwe’s power-sharing government, and his negotiating team has taken the leading role in drafting a road map to ensure free and fair elections next year.

Mr Zuma had earlier indicated that Zimbabwe’s six interparty negotiators would draft the road map. However, Mr Zuma, facilitating the Zimbabwean dialogue on behalf of the Southern African Development Community (Sadc), will now do so instead.

Zanu (PF) and the factions of the MDC led by Mr Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara have confirmed the latest development.

Sources in Pretoria said the road map would be modelled on the Sadc protocol for democratic elections. The draft road map is likely to be completed before the meeting next month of the Sadc troika, or committee on politics, defence and security.

Prof Dirk Kotzé of the University of SA’s political sciences department said Zimbabwe seemed to be looking for ways to get rid of the inclusive government by finding reasons to once again discredit Mr Tsvangirai.

"Mr Tsvangirai could be charged just on the basis of the WikiLeaks documents instead of concrete evidence with witnesses … however, the charges are unlikely to stand up in court.

"But it would probably help Zanu (PF)’s electoral campaign for next year."

He said the MDC would now have to explain why Mr Tsvangirai’s call for selective or partial lifting of sanctions to force Mr Mugabe to give something was an appropriate strategy.

The cable quoted the MDC leader acknowledging that "his public statements calling for easing of sanctions versus his private conversations saying they must be kept have caused problems".

For Mr Tsvangirai, the elections are too early as Zimbabwe is not ready. Before elections are held, possibly late next year, the MDC wants: the constitutional reform process speeded up, media freedom, national healing and anticorruption efforts to be allowed to work, a move to economic growth and human rights violations to be dealt with.

Zanu (PF) said last week that the government should draft a law making it a treasonable offence to call for sanctions.

Zimbabwean officials have said a presidential election can be held only after a referendum on a new constitution. The referendum was likely to be delayed at least until October, said Douglas Mwonzora, joint chairman of the parliamentary select committee drafting the new constitution. He blamed a lack of funds and political infighting for the delay.

SA’s Department of International Relations and Co-operation said it was not policy to comment on leaked documents .

perhaps there should have been an effort to cooperate with wikileaks when the U.S. government had the opportunity

fussing about it now is not helpful

leaks are going to continue

learning to deal with the brave new world is probably not a bad idea for the world of bureaucrats

and would make Wikileaks liable to criminal prosecution.

Shifting the blame to the U.S. government does not absolve Wikileaks from responsibility. The decision was made to inform Wikileaks that publishing classified information is illegal and would make Wikileaks liable to criminal prosecution.

The problem here is you have no right to tell a foreign citizen on foreign soil that your laws apply to him.

Sorry kid, but I can't go there with you.

The American government bureaucracy needed to give a collective head shake.

The idea that some bureaucrats are still resistant to the new reality is troubling.

the genie isn't going back into the bottle
Pandora's box has been opened
etc
etc

we seem to think that we can not only do THAT but also execute them and who ever they are with using a missile fired from a Predator unmanned aircraft......

or use the military to invade a country to snatch a person and bring them to our courts (Manuel Noriega)