Oz Election Thread #4 - Gillard's Labor

@Eorl,

That's it! I'm off to buy a bottle of wine!

@msolga,

Very early days, but swings toward the Coalition in NSW & Qld.

Victoria & Tasmania looking good for Labor.

WA could be very important to the outcome.

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@msolga,

I'm halfway through mine. Goon to need the single malt as well perhaps.

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@Eorl,

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@msolga,

Pinot and duck for us.

Leichardt vs Eden Monaro is the battle of the bellwethers. ONly one winner Liechardt looks LNP, Eden Monaro looks labor.

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@hingehead,

Hey, hinge! Smile

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@msolga,

Current (ABC) assessment on early figures:

ALP: 63 seats
Coalition: 57
Other: 3

Labor looks like having lost 6 seats at this point. Doing very poorly in Brisbane.

Early days in SA.

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@msolga,

We're watching ABC - what are the rest of you watching? (Olgs =ABC)

Mr Green is a legend... not happy with tech guys earlier though!

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@hingehead,

Yep, ABC here, hinge.

Tried Crikey's live blog but experienced problems.

Andrew Robb just said Victoria might decide the outcome. THAT gives me a wee bit of confidence!

Yep, Antony's a legend! Smile

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@msolga,

Whoops! Not Andrew Robb, Nick Minchin!

(Getting my conservatives confused! Smile

)

Current ABC assessment:

ALP: 63 seats

Coalition: 54

Other: 3

In doubt: 30

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7.9 swing to the Greens in Lindsay Tanner's old seat of Melbourne! (yay!)
Antony's being careful about predicting the final outcome, but says that the Greens are in a very good position at this point.

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More & more talk of a hung parliament. (without knowing how the vote in WA will kick in will influence the outcome at this stage ..)

And it's looking more & more likely that we'll be seeing our very first Greens member of the house of representatives! Very Happy

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@msolga,

Looks like the Coalition has won back Bennelong (John Howard's old seat).
Sorry, Maxine. Neutral

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All eyes now on WA.

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Very candid concession (of loss) speech from Maxine Mckew.
Sad to see her go.

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Current (ABC) Assessment:

Seats won:

ALP 68

Coalition 68

Other 5

In doubt 9

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Antony Green now predicting 73 (won seats) for the Liberals in the house of representatives & 72 for Labor.

Also the loss of two Liberal seats (so far) in the senate.

Plus, Steve Fielding (Family First) looks like he's lost his senate seat. (Yes! Very Happy

)

This is a strange, whole new ball game happening here!

A lot of talk about how exactly a minority government might work in these circumstances. No one seems sure, exactly ....

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Senate: Fielding gone. Larissa Waters in. ( in 11 months )

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So ... A strong possibility of a minority Liberal government, plus a senate with the Greens holding the balance of power ....

Now how might that work? Confused

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Bob Brown (Greens leader) talking to the press right now. Looking like a very satisfied leader. Whatever the outcome with the big 2, the Greens have done very well indeed.

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Oz Election Thread #4 - Gillard's Labor

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