If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

The Los Angeles Times has a story on polling too. It points out, as most experts already know, that an incumbent president rarely gets even more than 1% of the popular vote than the final polls show. If an incumbent is polling, 47%, 48% just before the election, that is probably what he will get. In contrast, the challenger always does much better than the final polls indicate.

Rasmussen Weekly Track 10/17: Bush 48.4%, Kerry 45.8%
Week-by-Week Numbers

October 17, 2004--In the latest Rasmussen Reports full week's polling sample, President George W. Bush holds a two-and-a-half percentage point lead over Senator Kerry.

This is the fifth full week sample in a row that shows the President ahead by two or more points. Prior to this stretch, neither candidate had been able to hold a 2-point lead for consecutive weeks all year.

For the week ending Thursday, October 14, Bush has 48.4% of the vote and Kerry has 45.8%. The President's numbers have not budged over the past five weeks. Senator Kerry gained just over half-a-point after the first Presidential debate, but that gain has disappeared.

This marks the 38th full week of polling since Kerry became the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Over the entire 38 week period, Bush has been ahead of Kerry by at least one point sixteen times. More significantly, as the election draws near, Bush has had such a lead for seven consecutive weeks

During the 38 weeks, the two candidates have been within one point of each other fourteen times. Kerry has been ahead by at least a point for eight of the 33 weeks (but not since August 19).

Seems to me I saw a study once that indicated Republicans lie about their sex lives more than Democrats.

I wonder if that accounts for the differences noted here????

... Among the factors that impact the survey results is that more men identify themselves as Republicans and men are more likely to say they are sexually satisfied and enjoy sex "a great deal." Also, Democrats are more likely to be women; and the poll results show that women are more likely to fake orgasms. ...

Gonna vote Bush, then, Frank?

Kerry keeps moving up in the electoral college. A new Survey USA poll shows he has now inched ahead of Bush in Florida, although his 1% lead means the state is still a statistical tie. Nevertheless, we now show Kerry with more than the critical 270 votes in the electoral college to win. Perhaps more signficant, though, is the fact that in states where Kerry's lead is at least 5%, he has 228 electoral votes. In states where Bush's lead is at least 5%, he has 183 electoral votes. Clearly the race is still wide open.

Wow! 41 new polls today. Zogby has released new polls conducted in the battleground states Oct. 13-18 and there is good news and bad news for each candidate. For Bush, the good news is that he is now leading in seven of the 16 battleground states (Arkansas, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia), his best showing ever in the Zogby poll. The bad news is that all of these leads are within the margin of error, so they are statistical ties. For Kerry, the good news is that his leads in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington are all outside the margin of error, which ranges from 2% to 4%.

But there are other polls today as well. A new poll from the University of Cincinnati shows Kerry ahead in Ohio, 48% to 46%. Rasmussen's tracking poll shows Bush and Kerry tied at 47% each in Ohio, the first time Bush has not led there for weeks. ABC News says its Kerry 50%, Bush 47%, but Fox News says it is the other way: Kerry 45% and Bush 47%. On the other hand, Survey USA has Kerry ahead 49% to 47%. All in all, Ohio is a complete tossup at the moment; it could go either way. My rule is still: most recent poll (based on the middle date) wins, with ties resolved in favor of the shortest poll. If two or more polls with the same dates are most recent, they are averaged. Currently, The Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll is the most recent by 0.5 day, so it is being used today. The complete list of polls is given at the Polling data link to the right of the map.