If you were a bookie... Polls and bets on the 2004 elections

In time of war it is important to extract information from prisoners if possible. If little information was forth coming, I can understand trying some innovative methods, not approved by the Geneva convention. We can rationalize that the terrorists and others trying to prevent democracy in Iraq are not restrained by the Geneva convention rules. Do you think we should sacrifice the lives of 1000 American soldiers to abide by the Geneva rules? I don't.
I'm not sure the USA should have invaded Iraq, but we did, and we should finnish the job as efficiently as possible, even if it involves bending some rules which have rarely been followed by anyone except as pretence. I'm not sure why the main stream media, Democrats and liberals are spinning this the way they are, but the firing squad would have been seriously considered for such traitors 61 years ago. Neil

Replied extensively to your post ... but in a thread where it''s more on-topic. You can find both your post and my answer in this thread.

Hi nimh: sorry I helped hijack your thread. By Nov, my guess is the attempt to extract information will have little impact. The voting machines will be manipulated so we get an other very close race. I think the Democrats may replace Kerry with Hillary Clinton or some one else, but that does mean GW Bush will loose, unless the Republicans replace him with someone else. I doubt the rich and powerful are united in who they really want, so collectively they may shoot themselves in the foot and get a president few of them wanted. I have not any inside information, but bush will win in the electorial college, loose the popular vote. The supreme court will decide one of the state races that was extremely close. dejavu. Even money between the Democratic Candidate and the republican candidate. Neil

Dont worry I've done more than my share in that! Thats the only reason I put my response to you in another thread in fact - to stop at least myself from veering ever further off! :wink:

OK, that was some two weeks ago. Update.

New graphs, as per June 1 ...







Observations:

The bottom didn't fall out of Bush's support; his incipient "freefall" has for now frozen again.

His job rating, to be sure, remains negative: disapproval outscores approval for the second half-month in a row. The net negative has even increased slightly: from -2,6% in the first half of May (as average of ten polls) to -3,0% in the second (as average of six polls). But thats only a slight deterioration. Looks more like a (temporary) stabilisation of the new situation, in fact.

Reason why this is worrisome: you may have heard those references to the fate of Ford, Carter, Bush Sr in their re-election drives. They remained head-to-head with their challengers in the match-ups for quite some time, even though their job approval ratings had already collapsed. Dem sympathisers have hopefully pointed this out a lot recently, seeing how Kerry can't seem to break the deadlock in the match-ups even while Bush's job approval is falling. But the weakness in that argument is that the job approval of Carter c.s. actually fell to the upper-30s in June. And there's no sign of that happening to Bush yet. (Carter and Bush Sr also suffered from a weak support among their own partisans. GWB's support among Republicans, on the other hand, did slump for a little while there last month, at least in the battleground Rust Belt states, but seems to have recovered again according to recent state polls there.)

That the hoped-for freefall has stalled again is even more clear in the state of the match-ups. The disastrous weeks of early and mid-May hurt Bush, and Kerry finally regained the upper hand again, getting an average 2,3% lead on Bush in six polls that were based on data from May 11-20. But he didn't follow up in the remainder of May, and the new situation stabilised, the average of four new polls showing a Kerry lead of 3,0%.

All last week, there was in fact a polling silence: no national match-up poll, at all. So we're a bit in the dark about whether this 3% lead forbodes a further Kerry surge, or a curve back upwards for Bush. My money, however, is on the latter. Yesterday the week of silence ended with a new ARG poll. ARG has been one of the more Kerry-friendly pollsters. However, this latest poll has Bush recovering by a point since a month ago, reducing the Kerry lead to 2% (48/46). Thats a 1 point recovery for Bush compared to a point in time when he was actually ahead in the average of all polls - before the mid-May slump. So I'm a bit anxious about the next coupla polls.

As the Iraqi govt begins speaking up--making progress, and finally, rather than critique each word that falls from Bush's lips, people begin to look at the overview of birthing a democracy in the ME, I believe we will see a reversal in the trends.

I've been trying to figure Bush's near-silence, in the face such bad numbers.

I believe they are storing up for a momentum push, beginning at the Convention. I think there will be a couple of surprising speakers--some declassification of documents between the Convention and the election-- Instead of having to sustain the public's attention with good news from Iraq all year--they are saving it for a blitz. The bad news leads--I guess because good news isn't news... I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a formidable contingent from Iraq at the Convention, and footage that will swell many hearts.

Bush the Younger needs do little self promotion. The economy is firmly in his corner, and Middle America, while at present yet uncertain, will be well convinced of recovery by Autum. The Iraqi Insurgency, already waning, will fare even less well under Iraqi Autonomy than it has under Coalition Occupation. Energy prices, already trending down, will continue to moderate in the face of stepped-up production from non-OPEC exporters along with third-quarter cooling of the Indian, and quite possibly, the Chinese economies. Even The Deficit may be expected to play to Bush the Younger's favor thanks to enhanced revenue due to increased economic activity, particularly corporate profits, and Spending Control aimed at significant Deficit Reduction certainly will be a key Republican talking point as the campaign hits its stride. Near-term, macabre though it may seem, there will be a positive Republican bounce due to the passing of Ronald Reagan ... sort of a parting gift from The Gipper to The GOP. Nostalgia is a powerful influence. Further out on the conjecture limb, the capture or elimination of any of a number of high-value WOT/Insurgency figures would effect an enormous boost, as would the disruption of any major terrorist plot aimed at The Olympics or The American Homeland, and there's a real, if perhaps remote, possibility of the emergence of conclusive evidence linking the Saddam Regime with pre-9/11 Terrorists, along with the less remote possibility of increasing Middle-Eastern stability. All in all, should events continue to trend as they have for the past year-and-a-half or so, Bush the Younger is in very good shape for November, while should serendipity favor his cause, he will be only that much stronger. On the other hand, in order for Kerry amd The Democrats to prevail, things must not remain the same or improve; they must become notably worse, a potential for which there is ansolutely no indication present. Their main points are pessimism and gay rights, and those just ain't gonna sway The Electorate ... particularly if the pessimism is seen to be groundless.

Timber--

I didn't want to say it--but you are right. The near-term Reagan legacy should cause a bump for Bush.

Bush is undeniably a Reaganite. Reagan was his model, not elder Bush. Reagan also held great influence over McCain, Powell and many others. As they speak about Reagan, and Reagan's sometimes harsh <evil empire><huge defense expenditures><big, fat deficit--later reduced>, but necessary, and later-proven correct stances--people will see the comparison.

<tax cuts that spurred a boom>

I agree with your tea-leaf interpretations above. <wink>

Current Presidential Betting Line as of 06JUN04

Look who the bookies are picking as the favorite in the upcoming alection:


Republican Party
8/11


Democratic Party
5/4


BOLD marks current front runner on odds line

Source: Here

A treatment of the reasons Bush may get a boost-- Thanks, Ronnie. Impeccable timing, as usual.

How Reagan's passing helps BushBut, as commander in chief in the "war on terror," (which really is a war against extremist theocratic Islam) Bush projects an elemental refusal to accept the "realists'" notion of live and let live. In that attitude at least Bush can claim the heritage of Ronald Reagan.
ow we know what the Republican convention in New York is going to be about, other than showing off Rudy Giuliani et. al., and replaying the videotape of Bush, bullhorn in hand, at Ground Zero.

Little to risk, much to gain
There is little risk, and a bit to gain, for Bush in associating with the Reagan aura. Voters on the left who think the comparison is damning to Bush weren't going to support him anyway; voters on the right who think the comparison makes Bush looks small are going to vote for Bush anyway.

I know its just totally on an aside, but what, pray say, did Maggie do to "topple the Soviet Union"?

Fedral...I'm not, and I'm sure many others here are not, betting people. Could you explain, in relatively simple terms what your last post meant:

Repubs: 8/11
Dems: 5/4
Bold marks front runner on odds line

Thanks. 2 to 1 I'm johnboy, or maybe it's the other way around.

8/11 Means for every 11 dollars bet, you will get back your original wager plus 8 dollars....

5/4 means that a 4 dollar bet will return your original 4 dollars plus 5 dollars.

As you can see, the greater the odds, the more money is returned for the original bet...

Thus the less chance of something occurring, the longer (greater the odds)

In this case, the bookies who are placing money on the line have decided that there is a greater chance of the Republicans winning the White House (Thus a much less return on the money bet) than the Democrats winning (Thus far greater return on the bet because there is less of a chance of them taking the election)

It's 5/6 for repubs now

there are no Las Vegas odds on the contest because gambling on presidential elections is illegal in Nevada,

What would happen to the odds if, during the Republican convention, Cheney announces that he will not run for VP due to health reasons and is replaced by Giuliani?

Remember Karl Rove is running the political show and he recognizes that Cheney long ago outlived his usefulness and is now a heavy, heary anchor.
Giuliani would give the program a real lift.

I don't know about that Perception. I personally have a good deal of admiration and respect for Guiliani, but looking at it from a pure P.R. perspective, Guiliani is also identified with the 'big boss' New York establishment machine. I'm not sure he would play well at all in 'fly over' country.

I think the slam dunk would be for Bush to pick Colin Powell, assuming that Mrs. Powell would allow it.

Mr. Powell would never do it.

He's still pretty pissed about being left out of the loop on some critical Iraq decisions.

Guiliani. Now, there's a republican I actually like. I think that would be a smart move, but there's already too many "bush/cheney '04" bumper stickers printed up to change now.

Cycloptichorn

Flurry of new polls out yesterday. Gallup/CNN/USAToday, Zogby, InvestorsDaily/ChristianScienceMonitor/TIPP. In addition to last week's ARG one. Interesting bunch.

First off the Gallup one. Gallup has the biggest "name". Its also had some of the biggest fluctuations registered by any of the pollsters on the Bush/Kerry match-up, registering the biggest Kerry leads back in late-Jan/early-March, and the biggest Bush leads in late-March/late-April.

This time, it comes up with a Kerry lead of 6 points in a match-up without Nader: Bush 44 Kerry 50. Thats a 4 point swing towards Kerry in the past two weeks. Plus, if you add Nader to the mix, nothing changes: Bush 43 Kerry 49 Nader 5.

Gallup is contradicted by the other polls, though. The IBD/CSM/TIPP one, which three weeks ago had Kerry in the lead by 1%, now has Bush in the lead by 1%. Zogby had Kerry ahead by 5 points three weeks ago (47/42), but now only by 2 points, simply because Kerry lost 3% to "Other/Unsure". And the ARG poll also has Bush catching up a percent, as already noted.

Overall, as predicted, Bush seems to be curving slightly back up - though ever so slightly - after that disastrous May. The average of the four polls has Kerry in the lead by 2,3%, compared to 3,0% in late May.

Huh. Thanks for the information.