Bush Gains In Post-Convention Poll
(CBS) One week after their convention, the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney hold a seven-point lead over Democrats John Kerry and John Edwards among registered voters surveyed in a new CBS News poll.
The Republicans' gain in voter support comes about through two changes that appear to have happened at that convention - a major improvement in the President's approval ratings on handling terrorism (already the area where he scored best), and significant negative changes in perceptions of the Democratic nominee.
The Bush ticket's four-point post-convention gain in support comes in part from some weakening of Kerry support among Democrats, but especially from gains with independent voters. In this poll, for the first time since last spring, Mr. Bush holds a clear lead with Independents.
Nine of ten Republicans say they will vote for Mr. Bush, but only eight of ten Democrats now say they will vote for Kerry.
Kerry has lost support with other groups that had supported him prior to the Republican convention. At that time, Kerry held a seven-point lead over Mr. Bush among women. Now, support for Kerry among women has dropped 10 points, and Mr. Bush has a five-point edge. Male voters before the convention gave Mr. Bush a seven-point lead; his lead with men now is 15 points. [..]
Mr. Bush retains a clear advantage over his opponent in the strength of his support. 64 percent of Bush voters say they strongly support their candidate, compared to 43 percent of Kerry voters who say the same.
CONVENTION IMPACT: MAKING THE CASE ON TERRORISM
One of the largest gains for Mr. Bush comes in the public's assessment of his handling of the campaign against terror. Even before the convention, this was Mr. Bush's strength - even when his approval rating on the economy, the war in Iraq, and overall dropped below 50 percent, a majority continued to approve of this handling of terrorism.
The convention appears to have increased that approval rating even more. Mr. Bush registered gains in other areas (for the first time since April, a majority approves of how he is handling his job overall), but jumped nine points in approval of his handling of the campaign against terrorism.
Mr. Bush's approval rating on handling terrorism has increased significantly among Democrats since before the convention. Though most Democrats still disapprove of the President's handling of terrorism, 36 percent of Democrats now approve, up from 24 percent prior to the convention.
More Americans continue to disapprove than approve of Mr. Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, but there has been some improvement for him on this issue. Forty-five percent approve of his handling of Iraq, while 49 percent disapprove. Prior to the convention, 40 percent approved of Mr. Bush's handling of Iraq, while 54 percent disapproved.
Mr. Bush's rating on the economy has also improved. Forty-four percent of Americans now approve of his handling of the economy, compared to 37 percent prior to the convention.
The Republicans were not quite able to make the link between the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq. Just about half of the public now say the war in Iraq is part of the war against terrorism, but that belief has been stable for months. They were, however, able to convince more that the war in Iraq was the right thing to do; for the first time since April, a majority says the U.S. did the right thing getting involved in Iraq.
However, this poll was conducted mostly before the news of the U.S. death toll in Iraq reaching 1,000.
CONVENTION IMPACT: MAKING THE CASE AGAINST KERRY
The impact of the convention is seen even more clearly when looking at the decline in voter assessments of the Democratic candidate. For the first time since June, overall opinion of Kerry is negative, and while overall opinion of Mr. Bush is up for the first time since spring, the convention week appears to have had a greater impact on views of the challenger.
In addition, Kerry has lost a lot of ground on perception of his ability to handle terrorism and other foreign crises. The percentage that says they have not much or no confidence in Kerry's ability to make the right decisions about terrorism has risen 11 points, from 26 percent to 37 percent. Now just 26 percent say they have a lot of confidence in Kerry, while 47 percent have a lot of confidence in the President.
A majority of voters are now uneasy with the idea of Kerry handling an international crisis, and only 35 percent are confident about that prospect. While voters are closely divided over Mr. Bush in this regard, the President does enjoy a large edge over Kerry.
Kerry has also lost his lead on his ability to handle the economy, but neither candidate inspires much confidence here. Fifty-six percent remain uneasy about Mr. Bush's approach to handling the economy, and now a majority is uneasy with Kerry's approach, too. For Kerry, this is a reversal from before the convention.
Kerry has also dropped eight points on the perception of his leadership abilities. He now trails Mr. Bush on this measure.
The convention did give voters a sense of what Mr. Bush wants to do if re-elected. A majority of voters believe Mr. Bush has a clear plan for what he wants to accomplish in the next four years if he returns to the White House. Fewer than half say that about Kerry.
Kerry has even lost his (shrinking) edge on sharing voters' priorities. Now more voters say he does not than say he does, while assessments of Mr. Bush are mixed.
The Republican convention's success even went as far as to make Kerry, not Mr. Bush, appear to be the candidate who is more likely to be on the attack, a turnaround from a few weeks ago. By eight points, voters see the Bush campaign as explaining what it would do, not attacking Kerry.
BUSH'S BOUNCE IN PERSPECTIVE
Few incumbent presidents of the last twenty years have received much of a "convention bounce." In 1992, George H. W. Bush received a 2-point bounce, and Ronald Reagan received no bounce at all in 1984. In 1996, Bill Clinton enjoyed a 5-point rise in the polls. Before that, both Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan received significant bounces after their conventions. Still, in more recent history, the largest convention bounces have been received by candidates from the party not occupying the White House -- candidates who begin their conventions less well known to voters.
This year, however, Mr. Bush's post-convention gains exceed those of his Democratic challenger, who had the support of 49 percent of voters before the Democratic Convention, and 49 percent of voters afterwards. [..]
